I can do this, actually!
With a little information gathering on LexisUni you can find the press releases from the early era of the game. I'll attach the three in question that I'm quoting from to this message.
From a February 24th, 2000 press release (i.e. from the company itself) in
Business Wire entitled "Ultima Online Reaches 150,000 Paying Subscribers; Pioneering Virtual World Hits New Record; Electronic Arts and ORIGIN to Ship New Ultima Online Release in April" they say "The virtual fantasy world now has
more than 150,000 paying customers." Later, they say "In April, ORIGIN will be releasing the latest retail update to UO, Ultima Online: Renaissance(tm). Renaissance will add new features to Ultima Online including the doubling of landmass in the fictional world of Britannia(tm). This will allow for safe zones where only consensual player vs. player combat will be allowed."
The key takeaway here is in February of 2000 right before Trammel hits we're at 150k players.
Fast forward to another press release in
Business Wire on Novermber 10, 2000 (i.e. after Trammel has hit in May of 2000) entitled "EA's Ultima Online To Enter New Dimension; Ultima Online: Third Dawn to Feature 3-D Characters, New Lands and Monsters; Unveiling Takes Place at Inaugural UO World Faire" where they say "Third Dawn is the latest upgrade to the highly successful Ultima Online (UO) game, which currently boasts more than
200,000 active subscribers."
Key takeaway: there was not a mass exodus from Trammel hitting. In fact the game increased subscribers. But was this growth sustained in 2001 the following year?
The final
Business Wire press release entitled "Todd McFarlane to Collaborate On New Version of Ultima Online; Ultima Online: Lord Blackthorn's Revenge to Feature More Than 30 New Monsters" is from the end of the year, October 31, 2001and says "Ultima Online
has 225,000 subscribers and is played in more than 50 countries located in every time zone."
Final takeaway? Subscriber growth! Well after Trammel hit.
Don't believe the press releases from EA at the time? Let me end this with a quote from Raph Koster's blog:
"The other was called Trammel, and in Trammel, there simply wasn’t any ability to attack other players. It was a peaceful place. To this day, this is controversial. I wouldn’t have done it, personally, but there is no question that the userbase doubled once this went in."
That's a really interesting article. I think Raph beats himself and the company up a bit too much about their inability to solve the murder problem with the inelegant solution of the facet split.
But there is no historical basis in "trammel killed the game! The players will come back if Fel comes back!" As Pete said if there ever was a moment for that to return we're long since past it.