How many are we?

[Petra Fyde]

When you are losing devs, it means the current strategy is not working, and you need to do something else.

If we were the only game that had lost devs that might be true, but the loss of staff is across the whole of EA. Read the articles about it that people have linked to.

I've invested alot of time and money,What's the future of it.

Do you consider a trip to the cinema as money invested? UO is an entertainment, just like any other. You pay for access to the servers to play, as you pay to access a cinema to view a movie. If it closed tomorrow you would still have had the years of entertainment that you paid for.
When compared to other forms of entertainment, it's exceedingly cheap. $12.99 for a month of 24/7 access?
We can hope that the game won't close, just as you might hope that the local cinema isn't turned into a bingo hall.

 

[dupapa]

im at a loss why people moan at the cost of one month subscription.

really? its actually super cheap when you put it in perspective of other items people consume in a month.

it is basically the same cost as one fast food meal, or a single pack (20 smokes) of cigarettes, or two days of buying lunch at work!?!?

i get hundreds of hours a month for my £10

there is nothing, absolutely nothing i purchase that even comes close to the cost/satisfaction level that is on-level with UO's price.

i personally believe the subscription is fine at the price it is.

//now onto topic.

to answer the O/P, i selected 30k accounts but actually think it might be lower than that.

but as other have stated, does it matter?? not to me it doesn't.

as long as i can keep logging in and having fun with friends then that is enough.

 

[Zosimus]

Well but this is the thing that all game companies do. They make money in one title, and spend it on developing another title, which they hope makes them more money. And of course they need money to pay to the shareholders, money to fund new acquisitions, money to expand the teams and get new teams onboard (when the company is healthy that is). That money has to come from somewhere; it comes from all previously released games. Just like not all of the money that Guild Wars raked in was spent on Guild Wars 1. A lot went to NC Soft, and a lot went to develop Guild Wars 2. If a company spends 20% of the revenue from an MMO on actually making content for the existing game, it's really a lot! From what I've seen, it's usually somewhere between 5 and 10% (for social games even less than 0.5%), but that's quite normal. Especially for new titles, which have had HUGE investments put in them to develop them in the first place that have to be earned back first. For UO I think operational costs are more than 10%, maybe even more than 25% due to our low subscription total. But to think that the lion's share of an MMO's revenue flows back into producing content for those games is simply not the reality, it never has been.

I know most of what you say and agree but when you are paying a sub fee and little money is being reinvested into the game you are paying is rediculous. The money from GW1 funded GW2. Plus GW1 was still recieveing updated while GW2 was being developed. Now GW1 is considered maintance mode but just turned 8 years old back in April. Still open to new and current players and no monthly fee. Just buy the game.

http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/04/28/celebrating-guild-wars-8th-anniversary/

Both games are built on the buy to play principle. Not a sub fee or pay to win scenario. GW1 was mostly expansions and cash shop. Now any true GW1 players know those items in the cash shop were just for aesthetics only. GW2 so far no expansions but not even a year old yet, cash shop still based on aesthetics, free content added, plenty of dev interaction, bug fixes and balances being made still, ect ect ect and depending on the sales of the game still and h shop. We know the last statement from ArenaNet was over 3 million copies sold of the game back in January. The link below talks about future updates but we alreeady recieved those.

http://www.pcgamer.com/2013/01/15/guild-wars-2-outlines-2013-plans-announce-3-million-copies-sold/


Now if UO money was being invested in a UO2 project then there would be no issues at all. UO feels like it's in mainatnce mode. Yes the game needs updated badly. I still feel strongly that 2 clients is holding the game back. Just focus on one client and save on resources and update the game over all. UO's waterfall of money going into STWOR or any other game developement and just a rain drop of it goes back into UO doesn't seem fair in my book. If EA want's UO to fund their projects they need to reinvest into it or find some other source of revenue to fund their projects when players do leave for good.

 

[Zosimus]

Btw let me touch upon some other posters comments.

I would like to see UO grow and become a brand name again in the gaming industry. Not like it is now , talked like an old cow in the pasture. Oh it may be reflected upon many gamers happier days and enjoyment. Kind of like being a round a campfire with fiends and talking about the days when we did crazy stuff and laugh our arses off about it.

UO has a rich history but with EA neglect of a great game, it's pretty sad that minecraft gets more media than UO does. My 17k comment is not about doom and gloom. Just my opinion what I think the number is. Far as I am concerned we are all wrong and only EA knows the numbers.

 

[Ron Silverbeard]

Hey, lets play what we pay!
*smiles*
Happy day to you all!
greets
Ron

 

[Lady Storm]

Was reading the Stock market reports an ran over a few editorials about the gamming industry.. Seems the investors are a bit in a huff over the trend of gaming company's loosing account holders. They point out the large loss by Blizzard, and the tightening of EA's belt with its latest rash of layoffs, yes trimming ones fat is fine but the Stock community is noticing its getting quite lean. F2P has its ups and downs as well with new company's edging out older ones with new titles.. As was pointed out there are new games coming out by the handful and the industry is in a bit of a jam as the funds for these games is being spread so thin. Upcoming mobile devices are now the hot new craze with gamers on the go... I can see it now, 30 car pile up on the I 10 cause: Madden football 2015 for the ipod6!
Money is tight, and its not just the usa with this delema of when its all going to end and get back to a close state normalcy.
Jobs have disappeared and are not to return.. many are still behind the 8 ball in bills and money is so tight George Washington is squeeling cause he is being pinched too tight.

 

[yars]

If we were the only game that had lost devs that might be true, but the loss of staff is across the whole of EA. Read the articles about it that people have linked to.


Do you consider a trip to the cinema as money invested? UO is an entertainment, just like any other. You pay for access to the servers to play, as you pay to access a cinema to view a movie. If it closed tomorrow you would still have had the years of entertainment that you paid for.
When compared to other forms of entertainment, it's exceedingly cheap. $12.99 for a month of 24/7 access?
We can hope that the game won't close, just as you might hope that the local cinema isn't turned into a bingo hall.

I appreciate the analogy,but along those lines if I had a bad experience "at the cinema" I would not recommend It, word of mouth is the easiest way to destroy anything's reputation, and also I would opt for the same experience on my own terms "get my home theater". Back to the game,open source,player Modding, f2p, these are the present and future of gaming. It might not be the direction of UO, but it's where were heading,great example: Bethesda recently announced no more skyrim DLC,the player-base hasn't changed,in fact modders couldn't be happier,they don't have to worry about updates jacking their content,and ESO is on the horizon.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk 2

 

[dupapa]

I appreciate the analogy,but along those lines if I had a bad experience "at the cinema" I would not recommend It, word of mouth is the easiest way to destroy anything's reputation, and also I would opt for the same experience on my own terms "get my home theater". Back to the game,open source,player Modding, f2p, these are the present and future of gaming. It might not be the direction of UO, but it's where were heading,great example: Bethesda recently announced no more skyrim DLC,the player-base hasn't changed,in fact modders couldn't be happier,they don't have to worry about updates jacking their content,and ESO is on the horizon.




Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk 2

f2p and micro transactions are not the future. Not for me anyways. Hehe

Id rather cut of my arms than let that type of business model survive.

Sent from my GT-I9305 using Tapatalk 2

 

[hen]

I think we are under 30k. I don't know how long we've got left. I returned in 2008 and have played myself since then, with the Drachenfels events run by Frarc and the Knuckleheads my only real interaction with other players.
The game IS dying and we can lock threads like this or we can embrace the truth. We have a small team struggling to provide us with things to keep us interested.
Like many others I long for our sepia days, but that was when not just online gaming, but just being online was new.
I sit in my Fel keep, in the spot where I used to hunt as a newbie in 99 and think, why the hell do I still play this game?
Moving on is always a wrench, but moving on from what we, as a collective, got from this game in whatever period we enjoyed the most, will be a huge wrench for those of us still playing now.
Peace.

 

[Tina Small]

II sit in my Fel keep, in the spot where I used to hunt as a newbie in 99 and think, why the hell do I still play this game?

What's keeping me playing now is a real combination of curiosity and dread--hoping something good is going to happen but also feeling very much like I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop. I am hopeful that when Ultima Forever is officially released, it will get people interested in UO again and maybe, just maybe, EA will take advantage of the opportunity to do some cross-promotion for UO.

 

[yars]

This ^

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk 2

 

[startle]

What's keeping me playing now is a real combination of curiosity and dread--hoping something good is going to happen but also feeling very much like I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop. I am hopeful that when Ultima Forever is officially released, it will get people interested in UO again and maybe, just maybe, EA will take advantage of the opportunity to do some cross-promotion for UO.

I'm there too, Tina... and I hope you're right...

 

[startle]

I think we are under 30k. I don't know how long we've got left. I returned in 2008 and have played myself since then, with the Drachenfels events run by Frarc and the Knuckleheads my only real interaction with other players.
The game IS dying and we can lock threads like this or we can embrace the truth. We have a small team struggling to provide us with things to keep us interested.
Like many others I long for our sepia days, but that was when not just online gaming, but just being online was new.
I sit in my Fel keep, in the spot where I used to hunt as a newbie in 99 and think, why the hell do I still play this game?
Moving on is always a wrench, but moving on from what we, as a collective, got from this game in whatever period we enjoyed the most, will be a huge wrench for those of us still playing now.
Peace.

Agree again... Peace hen

 

[old gypsy]

As for the number of subscriptions, I wouldn't even try to guess. Regarding money spent over the years and the small monthly cost to support an account, UO's entertainment value far exceeds whatever I've invested. UO was and still is a bargain, at least in my opinion.

 

[Ron Silverbeard]

As for the number of subscriptions, I wouldn't even try to guess. Regarding money spent over the years and the small monthly cost to support an account, UO's entertainment value far exceeds whatever I've invested. UO was and still is a bargain, at least in my opinion.

This is so true!

 

[Goodmann]

shard mergers!

 

[yars]

Oh hell no!!

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk 2

 

[virtualhabitat]

Two paid accounts here.
I know one person who has posted in this thread. I know her from the shard I play on. I haven't spoken to her in a few weeks, but I have logged in almost every day at odd hours. Sometimes I go out for a little solo pvm or a little resource gathering. Sometime I just do a little maintenance like tending plants or refreshing a boat. I haven't really played with another person for the last 8 or 9 months. I still log in though, but you won't ever see me in luna or the dungeon du jour. I prefer unused/forgotten places in the game and I don't log into general chat unless I need to buy or sell something. The truth is, while I like uo as a game, I have fun chatting to different people in ventrillo about other places, food, politics and other sundry topics.

 

[polanco]

Two paid accounts here.
I have logged in almost every day at odd hours. Sometimes I go out for a little solo pvm or a little resource gathering. Sometime I just do a little maintenance like tending plants or refreshing a boat. I haven't really played with another person for the last 8 or 9 months. I still log in though, but you won't ever see me in luna or the dungeon du jour.

That pretty much sums up how I play, how many more are like this, just curious to see if there are more like us out there

 

[cdavbar]

I just need to know that I can log in and play.

Well Said!

 

[THP]

The fact that only 70 people voted tells a story itself......sad lonely days.

 

[Viper09]

The fact that only 70 people voted tells a story itself......sad lonely days.

Tells me that we need to advertise stratics to more people in game.

 

[kelmo]

I did not vote in this foolish poll... i will bet many other Stratics folks did not either.

 

[yars]

I did not vote in this foolish poll... i will bet many other Stratics folks did not either.

lets take a poll of everyone who took the poll!!!!

 

[Adol]

I didn't vote, because it's largely irrelevant; as the recent closure of City of Heroes showed, which was still making a hefty profit but simply didn't fit in with some Business-Wonk's idea of what model would best please the shareholders... account numbers and income are largely irrelevant, they may keep UO alive because someone in EA likes the idea of owning the oldest MMO, which gives a fillip to the rest of the portfolio. Or they may see it as a way of levering themselves into the Asian markets (where most of our players are I gather), or someone may just wake up one day and say "I'll make a name for myself in history by being the one who shut UO down!" Modern capitalism is based on ego and rapaciousness with a complete disconnect from reality and it's customers, so worrying about what the numbers say is just extra stress, and when it really doesn't matter. They aren't listening and wouldn't understand even if they were... and you'd have to be disconnected from modern reality in turn to even think they were.

 

[THP]

Tells me that we need to advertise stratics to more people in game.

well quite simply put if only 1 % of players read stratics [crazy i know] ...simple maths for just 70 votes .....thats puts us at 7000 players/accounts.....if only 10 % of the stratic players voted [crazy i know].....this is simple maths....70,000 players/accounts....

well quite simply put if only 2 % of players read stratics [crazy i know] ...simple maths for just 70 votes .....thats puts us at 3500 players/accounts.....if only 10 % of the stratic players voted [crazy i know].....this is simple maths....35,000 players/accounts....

well quite simply put if only 4 % of players read stratics [crazy i know] ...simple maths for just 70 votes .....thats puts us at 1750 players/accounts.....if only 10 % of the stratic players voted [crazy i know].....this is simple maths....17,500 players/accounts....

Listen iam here till the end....till they turn the lights off..........i wish i could the clock back 8-9 years....i wish the lands were heaving and u cant place a 7x7 like back in the olde days......alas i cant..... i gave u other figures... they were dismissed...i give u more....u can dismiss them again.... but there logoc in the figures.... very much logic.......Hey someone asked the question............'''how many are we'''........u can look at the figures u can dismiss the figures....iam just being honest....the figures dont lie...

iam here till the end...........have a good UO day........ the figures dont lie

 

[Viper09]

You need to lay off the caffeine, lol.

 

[Tina Small]

It looks like Mythic released Ultima Forever yesterday for Canadian iOS (iPhone, iPad, and iPod Touch) users. Maybe that will help regenerate some interest in UO among all those Canadians.

http://ultimacodex.com/2013/05/ultima-forever-released-in-canada/

 

[THP]

You need to lay off the caffeine, lol.

Not really....its simple maths...lol

Iam going for at least 10% of players read stratics and at least 10% placed a vote

u do the sums.....there lies the answer to the thread question.........

THP- Legendary Idocer of Europa

 

[Viper09]

Not really....its simple maths...lol

Iam going for at least 10% of players read stratics and at least 10% placed a vote

u do the sums.....there lies the answer to the thread question.........

THP- Legendary Idocer of Europa

Lol. My comment has nothing to do with your math speculating on population. Much like my initial comment that you quoted about advertising stratics to players had nothing to do with estimating how many people play this game.

My caffeine comment is merely in response to your overly energetic and erratic posting behavior.

For example, I mention that because little amount of people vote here, we should try and advertise stratics to more players. Your reply to me? Present a number of statistics estimating player base off of stratics posters. Lovely, but that has nothing to do with trying to spread stratics to more players.

 

[THP]

Lol. My comment has nothing to do with your math speculating on population. Much like my initial comment that you quoted about advertising stratics to players had nothing to do with estimating how many people play this game.

My caffeine comment is merely in response to your overly energetic and erratic posting behavior.

For example, I mention that because little amount of people vote here, we should try and advertise stratics to more players. Your reply to me? Present a number of statistics estimating player base off of stratics posters. Lovely, but that has nothing to do with trying to spread stratics to more players.

yet the question the OP wanted to know is how many are we left....????? hence simple logic and simple maths tells us this...and because the answer comes out at 10,000 and not 100,000 ......people throw up arms and dismiss it...look around your shard...on a evening...

iam here till the end.....iam only answering the OPs question

 

[Viper09]

Lol, yes. But still unrelated to my point you concerned yourself with. And no, I am not arguing with your speculations. I really couldn't care less about this dead-horse topic.

 

[The Zog historian]

Lol, yes. But still unrelated to my point you concerned yourself with. And no, I am not arguing with your speculations. I really couldn't care less about this dead-horse topic.

Indeed. A poll can't be roll call, and this isn't a statistical study where we can infer a total population from a sampling of known percentages.

So, like, whoa dude, everybody totally into UO just raise your hands, unless, like, you don't see this on Stratics or have a Stratics login, or maybe don't care.

 

[Uvtha]

Indeed. A poll can't be roll call, and this isn't a statistical study where we can infer a total population from a sampling of known percentages.

So, like, whoa dude, everybody totally into UO just raise your hands, unless, like, you don't see this on Stratics or have a Stratics login, or maybe don't care.

Again... national polls randomly survey FAR less than 1% of the population, and are generally fairly accurate.

In this case though it's an not "how many people play" but "how many people do you THINK play?". So even if the answers are reflective they don't actually represent anything other than peoples perception.

 

[THP]

Well if logical thinking and simple maths aint your thing....we need to find a answer to the OPs question ????

and lets be honest here....its a fact .....just over 90 people voted on the poll....just 90..[ the same number that vote in every poll made in the last year] and if ''only'' 1% of UO players read stratics/voted...and that figure is absurb!!! then we are 9000....which aint too bad for a 15 year old game.

SO HEY !!! Lets do it visually!!!! -ingame!!!! on a evening or weekend primetime your shard.....with the exception of Atlantic most shards ''visually'' are down to a 2-300 active players ...some are down to less that 100....and thats a fact....

Iam done here!!....But feel free to continue to totally dismiss logic /simple maths and ingame visuals

My answer to the OPs question is between 10,000 -15,000 active accounts....which like i said is pretty darn good for a 15 year old game...pretty good indeed....

And i will be here playing UO untill the end!! when they finally turn the UO lights out!!....lets hope its got a few more years yet...[but hey we can only speculate!!! LOL]

 

[Ron Silverbeard]

Ok lets make it pretty simple:
We (the players) are that much, Mythic is still able to pay their expenses to run this game - so, we are enough!
Play on! Happy day to you all!
greets
Ronny

 

[The Zog historian]

Again... national polls randomly survey FAR less than 1% of the population, and are generally fairly accurate.

In this case though it's an not "how many people play" but "how many people do you THINK play?". So even if the answers are reflective they don't actually represent anything other than peoples perception.

National polls work because there's a very good idea of what the total population is. Back to square one for you.

 

[Viper09]

Well if logical thinking and simple maths aint your thing....we need to find a answer to the OPs question ????

and lets be honest here....its a fact .....just over 90 people voted on the poll....just 90..[ the same number that vote in every poll made in the last year] and if ''only'' 1% of UO players read stratics/voted...and that figure is absurb!!! then we are 9000....which aint too bad for a 15 year old game.

SO HEY !!! Lets do it visually!!!! -ingame!!!! on a evening or weekend primetime your shard.....with the exception of Atlantic most shards ''visually'' are down to a 2-300 active players ...some are down to less that 100....and thats a fact....

Iam done here!!....But feel free to continue to totally dismiss logic /simple maths and ingame visuals

My answer to the OPs question is between 10,000 -15,000 active accounts....which like i said is pretty darn good for a 15 year old game...pretty good indeed....

And i will be here playing UO untill the end!! when they finally turn the UO lights out!!....lets hope its got a few more years yet...[but hey we can only speculate!!! LOL]

Who the bloody hell you arguing with here? lol

 

[Uvtha]

National polls work because there's a very good idea of what the total population is. Back to square one for you.

I'm just saying you don't need a large sample size to get an accurate impression. And again, this poll can't give an accurate indication of how many people are player, but rather how many people THINK are playing. In that respect I think its probably fairly accurate in gauging the perceptions of the player base..

 

[The Zog historian]

I'm just saying you don't need a large sample size to get an accurate impression. And again, this poll can't give an accurate indication of how many people are player, but rather how many people THINK are playing. In that respect I think its probably fairly accurate in gauging the perceptions of the player base..

A national poll is based on a known total population, allowing statisticians to have a good degree of confidence. However, we don't know UO's total population, so your argument is circular. You can't extrapolate the total population when you don't even know what percentage responded.

If you're merely trying to get opinions on what the player population is, then what's the point? You're only getting guesses that have no scientific basis.

 

[Uvtha]

A national poll is based on a known total population, allowing statisticians to have a good degree of confidence. However, we don't know UO's total population, so your argument is circular. You can't extrapolate the total population when you don't even know what percentage responded.

If you're merely trying to get opinions on what the player population is, then what's the point? You're only getting guesses that have no scientific basis.

Well thats exactly what I said. And I'm not trying to do anything. I didn't make the poll. Simply pointing out that the only information you can get from a poll like this is to gauge perception, not come up with numbers.

If we knew the population, then we wouldn't need this poll.

And you don't need to know exact numbers for a poll to be accurate. Were that the case then sample would be based on population size, which it is not.

 

[The Zog historian]

Well thats exactly what I said. And I'm not trying to do anything. I didn't make the poll. Simply pointing out that the only information you can get from a poll like this is to gauge perception, not come up with numbers.

If we knew the population, then we wouldn't need this poll.

And you don't need to know exact numbers for a poll to be accurate. Were that the case then sample would be based on population size, which it is not.

You're still going around in circles, and your second paragraph is a tautology. I know you didn't make the poll, so what exactly are you trying to do? Getting people's perceptions or gut instincts aren't worth the time when the poll results are meaningless guesses.

Knowing the population size IS in fact essential. Didn't you ever take a single statistics class? Otherwise you don't know how many to poll for a high degree of confidence and small confidence interval, unless you're going to poll a large number of people in the first place (i.e. 1000 by Gallup). And here, do you really think the 87 responses so far are statistically meaningful in any way?

 

[Uvtha]

You're still going around in circles, and your second paragraph is a tautology. I know you didn't make the poll, so what exactly are you trying to do? Getting people's perceptions or gut instincts aren't worth the time when the poll results are meaningless guesses.

Knowing the population size IS in fact essential. Didn't you ever take a single statistics class? Otherwise you don't know how many to poll for a high degree of confidence and small confidence interval, unless you're going to poll a large number of people in the first place (i.e. 1000 by Gallup). And here, do you really think the 87 responses so far are statistically meaningful in any way?

No, I never took a statistics class, but I did actually work for Gallup for 6 years. Anyway, what I was trying to say was that this poll is pointless because it wants to know how many people are playing, but asking people how many they -think- are playing will only gauge a perception of the number, not the number. So even if the result is 100% accurate it won't give us any actual reflection of the number of people playing. So the poll isn't about how many players there are, but really about the perceptions of the games current health.

And of course knowing the actual population number would make this poll functionally redundant.

As for the sample size, I would personally want more than 87 votes on any poll for UO. Indeed I would want as many as wanted to be involved since the more people the more accurate the response, but you certainly don't need to ask 10000 people to gauge interest in anything in the game regardless of the playerbase number. If there are 50k players or 500k players, 10k or whatever would be more than enough to get a generally accurate view. I would shoot for 500ish myself.
While I wouldn't want to make any decisions based on such a small number as 80 or 100, but I have a feeling they probably wouldn't be radically different than if you polled 1000 players.

It's certainly not scientific (and it need not be since its just a game and all) but that's what I mean.

 

[Uvtha]

You're still going around in circles, and your second paragraph is a tautology. I know you didn't make the poll, so what exactly are you trying to do? Getting people's perceptions or gut instincts aren't worth the time when the poll results are meaningless guesses.

Knowing the population size IS in fact essential. Didn't you ever take a single statistics class? Otherwise you don't know how many to poll for a high degree of confidence and small confidence interval, unless you're going to poll a large number of people in the first place (i.e. 1000 by Gallup). And here, do you really think the 87 responses so far are statistically meaningful in any way?

And I decided to do the math, for a 95% confidence level with an margin of error of 4 on a game with 50k players, you need around 600 sample. For a game with 500k players you need... 600.

In other words you DON'T need to know the exact number. Just a rough range. UO falls within that range. So around 100 probably isn't THAT far off.

 

[THP]

just another LOL!! use some common sense...LOL....ive gave the answer..[ 3 ways...nay 4] ....and it aint far off the mark.. each time.....the answer will be around 10.000-15,000 active players...pretty good to be fair

 

[The Zog historian]

No, I never took a statistics class, but I did actually work for Gallup for 6 years. Anyway, what I was trying to say was that this poll is pointless because it wants to know how many people are playing, but asking people how many they -think- are playing will only gauge a perception of the number, not the number. So even if the result is 100% accurate it won't give us any actual reflection of the number of people playing. So the poll isn't about how many players there are, but really about the perceptions of the games current health.

And of course knowing the actual population number would make this poll functionally redundant.

As for the sample size, I would personally want more than 87 votes on any poll for UO. Indeed I would want as many as wanted to be involved since the more people the more accurate the response, but you certainly don't need to ask 10000 people to gauge interest in anything in the game regardless of the playerbase number. If there are 50k players or 500k players, 10k or whatever would be more than enough to get a generally accurate view. I would shoot for 500ish myself.
While I wouldn't want to make any decisions based on such a small number as 80 or 100, but I have a feeling they probably wouldn't be radically different than if you polled 1000 players.

It's certainly not scientific (and it need not be since its just a game and all) but that's what I mean.

I can't tell what you're saying. You're going back and forth and all around in circles. So do you think there's any point to this poll at all?

Actually, you don't need 10,000 people to get a good poll of a large population. It's more like a thousand, and 1100 is statistically guaranteed to suffice for any large population, plus or minus 3% with a 95% confidence level.

But if we're looking at 10,000 UO players or 50,000, we need a lot more than 87 votes, let alone 87 votes that give a meaningless answer to a meaningless question "How many do you THINK are playing?" Originally I wasn't going to get into this, but without EA telling us officially, the way to get isn't by a poll, but by a prediction market. I was doing this type of statistics before I did some work for Intrade, which had an excellent track record of accuracy. Prediction markets work because people give more careful answers, since they're putting up real money; participants are generally more knowledgeable; and because of the occasional insider who will place a big bet.

 

[The Zog historian]

And I decided to do the math, for a 95% confidence level with an margin of error of 4 on a game with 50k players, you need around 600 sample. For a game with 500k players you need... 600.

In other words you DON'T need to know the exact number. Just a rough range. UO falls within that range. So around 100 probably isn't THAT far off.

Good, so you learned something today. But don't be so imprecise with numbers to imply the same applies. You need 577 for 50,000 players, and an even 600 for 500K players. The required sample size grows logarithmically, but as I said in my other reply, you need a lot more than 87 in a silly Stratics poll.

Realize, also, the limitations of what a sufficient sample size is predicted to be. What if we polled 1000 in the U.S. if they played UO? Odds are very good of finding 1000 who'd never heard of UO.

 

[Uvtha]

I can't tell what you're saying. You're going back and forth and all around in circles. So do you think there's any point to this poll at all?

I'm not talking in circles at all. I've said the same thing like 3 times now. It depends on what one want to accomplish with this poll. If you want to know how people feel about the population, it can give you that indication. If you want to know how many people are playing it cannot, and the poll is pointless toward those ends.

Actually, you don't need 10,000 people to get a good poll of a large population. It's more like a thousand, and 1100 is statistically guaranteed to suffice for any large population, plus or minus 3% with a 95% confidence level.

I know that. I was saying 10000 as a random number to make the point that you don't need the exact number to come up with a fairly accurate sample size, you just need to know a rough range. UO somewhere within the 5000-200,000 range (being generous). So you need like 600. Though I think 300-500 would do just fine, since the outcome is not THAT important. Like if they were polling on "Would you rather have us work on a or b" a 5% swing is no big deal.

But if we're looking at 10,000 UO players or 50,000, we need a lot more than 87 votes, let alone 87 votes that give a meaningless answer to a meaningless question "How many do you THINK are playing?" Originally I wasn't going to get into this, but without EA telling us officially, the way to get isn't by a poll, but by a prediction market. I was doing this type of statistics before I did some work for Intrade, which had an excellent track record of accuracy. Prediction markets work because people give more careful answers, since they're putting up real money; participants are generally more knowledgeable; and because of the occasional insider who will place a big bet.

As I said I would look for 500ish off the top of my head, and the numbers would say around 600. So while 90-100 sample size will not give you the highest accuracy, I would be willing to bet that its not THAT far off from the target 600. Or if you want to widen the swing a bit 300.

If you are looking to find out how many people are playing, a poll is not going to do that for you. I don't think the question is "pointless", as I think it would be a some indicator of how confident players are in the game's future, which is important.

 

[Uvtha]

Good, so you learned something today. But don't be so imprecise with numbers to imply the same applies. You need 577 for 50,000 players, and an even 600 for 500K players. The required sample size grows logarithmically, but as I said in my other reply, you need a lot more than 87 in a silly Stratics poll.

Thanks for the condescension. And you don't "NEED" those numbers to make a general guess. If the poll swings 5% it doesn't really matter. It's not an election. It's a video game. And I agreed with you that 90-100 sample size will have a wide swing range, but it will still be around 85% accuracy.

Realize, also, the limitations of what a sufficient sample size is predicted to be. What if we polled 1000 in the U.S. if they played UO? Odds are very good of finding 1000 who'd never heard of UO.

But that poll would be accurate. .000000000001 (hyperbole) of the population plays uo, so 0 with even a .1 swing would be within the range of accuracy.

 

[The Zog historian]

I'm not talking in circles at all. I've said the same thing like 3 times now. It depends on what one want to accomplish with this poll. If you want to know how people feel about the population, it can give you that indication. If you want to know how many people are playing it cannot, and the poll is pointless toward those ends.

Yes, you have been saying the same thing, over and over, all in circles. What is it you want, and don't you realize the very question of the poll is meaningless? People are pulling numbers out of the air and elsewhere. You'll notice I haven't even bothered to give a number, except to show what sample size is needed for such and such a population. My home shard is pretty quiet, and I'm rarely on Japanese shards during their primetime.

I know that. I was saying 10000 as a random number to make the point that you don't need the exact number to come up with a fairly accurate sample size, you just need to know a rough range. UO somewhere within the 5000-200,000 range (being generous). So you need like 600. Though I think 300-500 would do just fine, since the outcome is not THAT important. Like if they were polling on "Would you rather have us work on a or b" a 5% swing is no big deal.

As I said I would look for 500ish off the top of my head, and the numbers would say around 600. So while 90-100 sample size will not give you the highest accuracy, I would be willing to bet that its not THAT far off from the target 600. Or if you want to widen the swing a bit 300.

Don't use random numbers. If you really wanted to be scientific about this, if you really wanted to understand the underlying statistics, you'd know you can't just go off the top of your head. That's why a prominent political strategist of certain notoriety got the 2012 presidential election all wrong, when prediction markets again were on the money.

Even if UO had just 5000 players, a mere 87 people is barely enough to get ±10.5% with a 95% confidence level, which is pretty bad on top of the meaningless question. To get ±4% with a 95% confidence level, a population of 5000 still requires 536 poll subjects. The sample size, as I said, growths logarithmically.

So as I've been saying all along, simple statistics shows that 87 respondents are completely meaningless, on top of a meaningless question. That's all there is to say.

If you are looking to find out how many people are playing, a poll is not going to do that for you. I don't think the question is "pointless", as I think it would be a some indicator of how confident players are in the game's future, which is important.

And if only a few had replied, would that mean we should be lemmings and close our accounts simultaneously? I prefer what Petra and Goldberg said, keep playing and have fun. As long as my guild and our allies are around, I'm happy.

If the poll is a matter of determining people's confidence in UO's longevity, then the question needs to address that, not some silly question that starts from nowhere and goes nowhere. You say you worked for Gallup. Do you understand why polls directly asked people who they would vote for, not who they think would win?