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has more to do with recent changes and not future changes, nobodys buying anything and tons have quit while some have come back, gold isnt selling and theres too many brokers(dupers) with too many items, people make a living selling stuff and if they cant sell it they can only offer deals to continue making a living, hence the drop in gold and new people selling bulk rares they bought at a discount rate to resell.
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This is similar to an explanation I gave a friend a day or two ago on why I think gold prices were dropping. Most of the "new dupe!" rumors spread because of gold price drops. Purely speculation, and nothing more, but the more people talk about it the more momentum it picks up and people think it's true.
If you take into account that it no longer costs 40 mil for an orny(more like 8-9 mil if you look hard enough) and that the runic changes made stuff a lot cheaper and easier to get(BODs, etc), gold is just not as high in demand as it used to be. Less demand, means cheaper prices. Simple economics really. UO progressively loses subs on a daily basis, coupled with the lower price of in game items, gold price drops are inevitable for those who make a living off this game.
A point to ponder even further would be that perhaps the US being in a recession may be affecting people's spending habits. Why spend money on UO gold when you can barely fill up your car with gas, or buy bread on a regular basis. I just have a feeling that people are just not buying it as much currently for numerous reasons.