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The runic distribution curve - analysed (a bit long and technical)

K

kettel

Guest
I love that it's a lottery but the odds are a little crazy. I think the main problem is that we can't choose what properties to add. I have suggested an item based system but really their may be easier ways to accomplish the same thing.
 
Z

Zardo Zap

Guest
I notice that there is an email from Hanse telling someone that they can still make runics with higher damage increase/resistances with runics than the new pub 19 non-runic exceptional bonus (there must have been a shorter way of saying that /php-bin/shared/images/icons/wink.gif )

The thing which upsets me is that it appears he is not aware of the issues discussed in this thread and multiple others.

Just before I took a short break I laid down a challenge to Hanse. He could make items from a val hammer, a verite hammer and an agapite hammer and I would kill blood ellies with a luck suit for 3 hours.

I know who I think will have the better items!

What I would like to do (since Hanse didn't take up the challenge) is reconstruct the challenge and post the results.

Has anyone kept records of all the items (good and bad) made with one of these three hammers?

Ill find time to go and kill blood ellies soon - if nothing else the comparison will be interesting.

Zardo
 
G

Gizmo

Guest
I can tell you that after several hours of killing bloods, you will have more than a few items with greater than 75% intensity.

There is no doubt that killing bloods will give you better items overall. the only drawback is that you can't get the items that you want. When you use runics, you can focus on the weapons or armor that you need. and even use the proper ingots to craft, so there is no chance of breaking it. So to kill bloods, get the item that you're looking for, and successfully enhance it would take days of continuous play, not just hours.

Of course, if you're only looking for items to sell, bloods can get you rich while with runics, you will die a poor smith.

I'm only posting a comment, and I am not implying that the runics are fine. I really hope that they change, because they are next to worthless the way that they are now.
 
M

Merc

Guest
i just aquired 3 valorite hammers from a smith that's leaving. i'll post the outcome of the 45 charges.
 
G

Gizmo

Guest
If i were you, i would try to use those after the server down warning. you can try it over several nights, and still have your hammers. and who knows, they may change things in a few months, and you can actually use those to make pretty good stuff.
 
M

Merc

Guest
here's 15 valorite charges. i've stuck to just crafting iron halberds.

1) fire resist 8%, lower requirements 60%, luck 52
2) swing increase 20%, damage 37%, lower requirements 50%, cold resist 10%, mage weapon -26
3) poison resist 9%, cold resist 8%, poison area 28%, luck 59, stamina leech 33%
4) stamina leech 44%, damage 41%, lower requirements 70%, ubws, durability 70%
5) ubws, mage weapon -27, spell channeling/-1fc, 50% fire damage/30% energy/20% poison
6) 51% damage increase, 70% durability, poison resist 9%, mana leech 29%
7) 80% durability, 80% lower requirements, 12% physical, hit increase 13%, ubws
8) 33% harm, physical resist 9%, defense increase 10%, damage 44%, life leech 31%
9) snake slayer, 90% durability, 27% life leech, lower requirements 70%
10) swing increase 20%, damage increase 53%, mage weapon -26, fire resist 11%
11) fast cast 1, ubws, lower requirements 80%, fire damage 80%/energy 20%
12) luck 86, spell channeling, defense increase 11%, lower attack 34%
13) lower defense 46%, lower attack 37%, damage 35%, mage weapon -27
14) undead slayer, fireball 39%, poison resist 12%, mage weapon -25, lower requirements 70%
15) mana leech 36%, life leech 44%, stamina leech 39%, damage 56%, fast cast 1
 
K

Kylas

Guest
Thats so sad..

I spent 3 hours in DOOM champ area and got 3 weapons that where better then those.

DIg
 
Z

Zardo Zap

Guest
Merc,

Thanks for posting that - the data is great to have as part of our weaponry.

Its amazing isn't it. The valorite hammer, the ultimate hammer, producing some goodish weapons, and although I haven't had time to really study the weapons, nothing leaps out as being great - or are there any there you think are great? (Edit actually looking at them a bit more, the last one is pretty good - but Hanse if you are reading this, remember that a valorite takes most smiths years (or avid traders many many months) to get and with the random element we have one item here which is "pretty good" and some which are "okay").

I suddenly got swamped in RL, but will get on to the blood ellies as soon as I can. I'll do a three hour killing spree (gets old quick, but research always runs the risk of being boring) and lets compare.

Once again thanks for posting the data.

Zardo
 
N

Nadia of_Sonoma

Guest
One other thing. If you do indeed plan on just burning the other valorite hammers you may wish to wait until after publish 19 hits.
 
G

Gizmo

Guest
You actually got better results than what i expected. Still not great though.

I personally like that undead slayer - especially since they are weak to fire. I assume that all of these are also exceptional, so you got a 20% DI on it.

One with 51% Damage Increase and another with 53% DI and 20% Swing Speed. I know that's nothing to scream about, but it's higher than an artifact. Equip that with some Damage Increase jewelry and you can be a pally with 1 hit kill abilities in PvP.
 
H

Hornace

Guest
Thanks for this info. Most interesting. I never made it above a copper runic so far (I have some bods which would qualify for bronze or gold, though) and I do not own one weapon which is better than most of them you made with the valorite.

However, taking into consideration what effort and costs are related with getting a valorite runic, I would expect the last weapon to be at least the average quality of such a runic. Especially when taking into account, that you can get weapon like these within a few hours when you have a char and a group of players good enough for gauntlet hunting.
 
M

Merc

Guest
but then, the majority of the ones with high damage and good mods ended up as MAGE WEAPONS arrgh!
 
M

Merc

Guest
do you think the ones with above 50% damage could become rares? 50% is supposed to be the damage cap.
 
G

Gamma Zulu

Guest
I'd say your results are close to what I see in the barbed and horned runic results I have compiled.

I've developed 13 barbed runics now, and 7 horned runics.

If you count "reflect physical" in with the resist stats, the average total resist coming out of a barbed runic is 43 points. Coming out of a horned runic is 40 points.

Again if you count "reflect physical" as a resist stat, then there appears to be exactly a 50% chance that any particular charge is going to be applied toward resists. The other 50% chance goes to properties like +stats, regenerations, etc...

Now, can we use your distribution curve to calculate these average results I've gotten with sewing kits? Yes, actually we can.

There's 32 base resist in a barbed leather armor piece (15 for armor, 12 for barbed leather, 5 for exceptional). Barbed runics average 4.5 enhancements applied per piece. From your distribution curve, it's possible to see that the 50 percentile enhancement is going to add about 4.5 points per enhancement. An average of 2.25 resist enhancements will be applied per piece, for a total addition of 2.25x4.5 = 11.25 points. So according to your distribution curve, leather armor made with a barbed runic kit should average 32+11.25 = 43.25 points. This is exactly what I'm seeing.

Now, if you do the math for the horned kits. It works out as follows:

3/4 enhancements (average of 3.5)
x50% chance of being applied to resists
x4.5 is the 50th percentile average resist added per enhancement
===
7.85 average resist added on average
+ 32 for base piece
===
39.85 average.

So, this predicts the average results of horned and barbed kits very well. Now, I'll have to go back through my data to see if it predicts the overall distribution. (Yes, call me anal, I've recorded the results from all my kits.)
 
G

Gizmo

Guest
<blockquote><hr>

do you think the ones with above 50% damage could become rares?

<hr></blockquote>

i'd say that they're already kinda rare. And with pub 19, they will become very rare.
 
Z

Zardo Zap

Guest
&lt;sigh&gt;

You know I keep hoping I am wrong - because if I am right the system really stinks. But if your kits show similar distribution - well it all looks like it fits.

I have spent, since bods started, all my time to get one gold and one agapite hammer (one sbod short of a verite) - and I just can't bring myself to use them. I *know* that the odds of getting better items than I currently have are minimal.

Once the publish is out, I'll jump up and down a bit more on the boards and see if I can attract Hanse's attention - but I am not holding out much hope.

For the first time since bods began I am beginning to run out of enthusiasm. Didn't collect bods this weekend, even though I was at home. That hasn't happened before. Maybe some habits aren't too hard to break /php-bin/shared/images/icons/frown.gif

Zardo
 
Z

Zardo Zap

Guest
Kylas

We might be getting through - kind of promising response from MrTact here

Zardo
 
E

Evocare

Guest
Although we never really intend for the underlying math in UO to be super secret, that's still an impressive degree of reverse engineering Zardo! You are in fact correct that it doesn't use d100, and that it uses an exponential curve.

This brings us to the more significant question, which can be expressed as, "regardless of the particular kind of funky math going on, does the system suck?" You make some fairly compelling arguments that it does indeed suck, and that the issue should find itself on my list of balance issues post-haste.

That being the case, how do you suggest fixing it? What kind of results would be more fair? Significantly increase the minimum intensity on the high-end hammers (maybe 80% on a valorite)? Eliminate the "chop" effect and replace it with a curve that shrinks to fit an intensity range that has a min and max? Use a d100 roll for runic hammers? Some of the above? None of the above? Do tell!
 
G

gandolfofaol

Guest
I think even distribution in there range would be a great place to start.
 

DerekL

Certifiable
Stratics Veteran
Stratics Legend
<blockquote><hr>

Thats so sad..

I spent 3 hours in DOOM champ area and got 3 weapons that where better then those.

<hr></blockquote>Of course he got 15 weapons, most of them not half bad at all.

It's so sad that folks can't realize that 15 &gt; 3.
 
D

Donger

Guest
Derek how many hours does it take to obtain a valorite hammer? Its more than 15 hours. :p

Hanse, thanks for response. You seem to realize that artifacts are MUCH MORE imbalancing (and common) than weapons made from valorite hammers.

Not only do artifacts need balancing (ex. can't be insured), but valorite hammer weapons need their just due. Many people that play this game simply spend a significant time and effort on BODs....we don't want to lose these people.

Thanks for listening.
 
G

Guest

Guest
wow reading your post and reading evocare response has made me feel like i have been shafted for the last year playing the lotto bod game. running 6 accounts for over a yearing thinking it was all worth it, how dumb have i been.

well unless something more fair is put in place i will have to cancel all the extra accounts i been so stupid for running and ty OSI for really shafting me
 
G

gralph7

Guest
&lt;&lt;This brings us to the more significant question, which can be expressed as, "regardless of the particular kind of funky math going on, does the system suck?" You make some fairly compelling arguments that it does indeed suck, and that the issue should find itself on my list of balance issues post-haste. &gt;&gt;

The system certainly does suck.
I know little of the underlying math- Zardo has done an impressive job there, but I cannot help but being very angry that his posts have been ignored til now.
I expected better from our Dev team. They have given the appearance of giving a hoot, but not the reality.

All this reminds me of the release of AOS when we were told that the runics being nerfed to 15 charges for all hammers was "as intended". No. I really don't want to go there- I get too angry.

I can see why the recent changes were needed. Regular GM weapons and armor were rendered useless with the way item based properties were introduced along with the changes to skillsets and fighting in general.

I read many posts about the cost of obtaining good hammers (defined by me as bronze or better). I think the silence from Dev team is disregarding those as a "it's your fault to pay that much". But who knows? Complete silence.
But the reason the ingame cost is so high is because the good hammers are difficult to get no matter how you do it.

What I can say for sure is with the way the system is now I get better items with a bronze hammer than I do with gold. I haven't recieved anything better than aggie, and I really don't think I want to use the one I have. I've filled many many good lbods - and I have the lovely 30 and 60 ash(s) to prove it.
Lots of time and gp spent in pursuit of decent items, and it's true the amount of time I spent would have netted many many more good items if I had just hunted bloods instead.
Perhaps that's why the silence.

It is not just the highest hammers that suck- all the good ones do. I have too many accounts with too many smiths and still am nowhere close to another aggie hammer (or more likely another 60 ash), much less a vertie or val one.

I have seen many of my friends leaving the game who were into bods-another one today. Not just trimming thier accounts, but leaving altogether.

I'm sure Zardo has a good idea of which method would work better- from what I see linear and no chop sounds better.
 
C

Clovis of LS

Guest
I personally think the whole smith system needs a revamp

- Power scrolls in the smithy system should be as easy to get as in the tailoring system.

- Maybe introduce new items besides pickaxes and pros tools.. (say some forges, hanging chain armors etc.. things that allready exist in UO).
to be some what equivelent with the tailoring system.

- Runics are rare items. I consider them this way since it takes weeks or even months to get mid rage ones
and you have to either religously get your BODs every day for months on multiple accounts or spend millions and hours getting them BOD vendors
even if you implement a (d50 + 50) on valorite hammers for example, this would be much better than the current system
but yet still make it difficult enough (1/50) ^ 5 to get 100% intensisty on all 5 properties (still very rare).
Even in this case the properties them selves are random so you still have a chance on top of that to end up with something your not looking for to begin with.

- Ancient smithy Hammers should be put to good use.. they have become pretty much worthless items.

- Doom artifacts will become more and more dominant on the market, they drop every day.

- having the current 6% Execptional bonus on armor is ridiculous haveing to use a barbed runic or &gt; gold runic to make armor that has normal GM except resists is not normal imo
Today, Using a spined runic it is impossible to create armor that has same resists at GM based non runic (same with dull, shadow and even copper runics)

- giving 35% bonus to weapons accross the board in my eyes is pretty funky too (Makes all my old Vanquishing weapons GM level *Feels weird*) *Starts Emptying Chests of old Vanq Weapons*

- Do todays artifacts equate to the old worlds Vanquishing weapons now ?

Solution A
This is my idea of a base "Ideal" system:
There should be 5 Variables that influence the quality and bonuses of an item produced

- Base Item
Item properties as today no change or little (might want to make things like platemail or dragon armor have actually more resists points than ringmail *seams logical*)
- Material
Material properties as today.
- Exceptional or not
I personally would remove this one all together but it is integrated in so many parts of the system that it would not be worth it. so a small base exceptional bonus in this place
- Skill
Some sort of property bonus that would reflect the makers derived skill (using the derived skill puts ASHs back into the equation and makes power scrolls worth while)
Basically would be a bonus scaled from 100 to 180. (why 180 because 120 smithing + 60 ASH)
- Runic
Runics should add extra bonuses as described above maybe..

each of these variables should be stackable (as is the base item props and materiel props in todays version)

in this case the values would vary
minimum the GM smith creating a platemail tunic with iron and normal hammer.
maximum the Legendary smith creating a platemail tunic with Valorite ingot using a valorite runic and weilding a +60 ASH.

I agree that the minimun should be at least decent items.
and I see the maximum as at least having a "fair" chance of creating artifact level items.

Solution B
Since that is prolly not feasable short term, why not just make runics linear.
Dull Copper (d15 + 10)
up to valorite (d50 + 50) as said above even this would make extremly rare max property + 100% items.
since this is the case you could use the derived skill as a bump factor (for example 180 smith has 80% chance to re-roll lowest roll or something like that)

Either of these solutions would probably make this whole BOD system more viable but not over whelm the market with ubber weapons either.

Im sure many folks on these boards have other ideas, some better and some worse than mine. Personally Im just glad you guys are taking the time to work with us on something to make the months of bod collecting worth while.
 
K

Kylas

Guest
&gt;&gt;This brings us to the more significant question, which can be expressed as, "regardless of the particular kind of funky math going on, does the system suck?" You make some fairly compelling arguments that it does indeed suck, and that the issue should find itself on my list of balance issues post-haste. &lt;&lt;

They system does "suck" as it works now. A few hours in doom will reward you with better items then a valorite hammer will yield.


How to solve this depends on how you want to address the problem. Valorite hammers where very hard to get when the system was at its peak.. Now with 70% of the smiths no longer doing bods getting valorite hammers is next to impossible.

So what kind of item should something thats SO hard to get make? It should produce at least artifact quality items. Or near to.

There are artifacts flowing out of doom now with a few hour investment.

&gt;&gt;and that the issue should find itself on my list of balance issues post-haste. &lt;&lt;

I couldnt agree more.. I only wish I knew how bad it "is" or I wouldnt have wasted 7 charges on my val... Now even if the system is repaired Ive lost 50% of my hammer on junk. /php-bin/shared/images/icons/frown.gif

&gt;&gt;That being the case, how do you suggest fixing it?&lt;&lt;

Well.. If you are going to leave the # of charges the same then how the hammer makes items needs to be beefed up.. Id rather get a verite hammer with those 5 extra charges if the chance to make a "better" item with a valorite was only a few percent different.. The value of # of charges is worth more then the very very slight possibilty that a val hammer makes an item better then a verite.

&gt;&gt;Significantly increase the minimum intensity on the high-end hammers (maybe 80% on a valorite)?&lt;&lt;

How about 75% minimum but please linearize the distribution. Also the missing bonuses issue needs to be fixed.. Of the many charges IVe lost on my val only 1 item had the 5 bonuses... I always lose 1 or 2 bonues and sometimes 3.

&gt;&gt;)? Eliminate the "chop" effect and replace it with a curve that shrinks to fit an intensity range that has a min and max?&lt;&lt;

ABSOLUTELY kill the CHOP... It should be a linear distrubutoin from min to max.

&gt;&gt;Use a d100 roll for runic hammers?&lt;&lt;

Only if you normalize the roll and then apply that to the Min/Max range.

For example.

DNorm = D100 / 100;
HammerDelta = HammerMinValue - HammerMaxValue; // Val min is 75 Max is 100.
Bonus Value = MinValue + (HammerDelta*DNorm);

Dig
 
K

Kylas

Guest
I thought Id repost how bad it is..

Here is what my Valorite hammer has made... Can you honest tell me you would loot any of these items if you found them on a mongbat?

Once again I give some examples of a REAL items I made with my UBBER valorite hammer.

(Daggers) Iron all Exceptional

Dagger #1

Hit Life leech 24%
Spell Channeling / -1
Physical Resist 8%

Dagger #2

Hit Physical 36%
Luck 57
Fire resist 8%
Cold Resist 8%

Dagger #3

Durability 50%
Luck 50
Defense chance 8%
Poison Resist 8%

Dagger #4

Hit Stamina leech 12%
Defense Chance 8%
Damage Increase 35%

Dagger #5

Hit Life Leech 24%
Defense chance 11%
Neon

Dagger #6

Hit lighting 12%
Luck 50
Swing speed 5%
Poison 8%

Dagger #7

Hit Poison area 30%
Ophidian slayer
Luck 59
Physical resist 8%

Pike #1

Durability 60%
Spell Channeling / -1
Hit Chance 9%

Plate Gloves (Exceptions. Verite or val)

Durability 50%
Hit point increase 2
Hit point regen 1
Lower Mana cost 4%
9/3/13/6/5

Plate Gloves #2

Stamina Regen 2
Night site
Lower Regs 14%
Lower requirements 70%
9/8/5/7/4


There is 10 OF 15 uses from that UBBER valorite hammer that the dev team has made SO hard to get..


Dig
 
T

Tyro

Guest
Very nice analysis there, Zardo. I would presume tailor's runic kit works in this way too, or doesn't it?
 
K

Kylas

Guest
&gt;&gt;Very nice analysis there, Zardo. I would presume tailor's runic kit works in this way too, or doesn't it? &lt;&lt;

Thats a safe assumption.. Programmers love to reuse code.

Dig
 
Z

Zardo Zap

Guest
Evocare,

Thank you for looking at this. I really just wanted to bring the matter to your attention, but you have asked what would I like to see happen? - Goodness, what a question!

I am sure a lot of people will jump in with their ideas so let me try and set out some of my underlying assumptions, the principles I would like to see applied and a potential way of applying them (and all in 100 words or less!). There has been a lot of discussion in different threads and a lot of ideas floated about how to change the system. These will have influenced my thoughts below, so if I have used someone's ideas without attribution - I apologise.

Assumptions:

Smith's work hard for some of the higher end hammers, which are limited in number (by the time constraints in the bod system, if nothing else).

There is a lot of randomness in the system - but - when it comes to enjoying the "fruits" of your labour, whilst everyone likes a random "good" item, it really hurts when you get a random "dud" result. The pain with "dud" results is especially sharp when you can make limited items.

There is a difference in randomness in getting the "end product" and in using the "end product". With runic hammers I think the "end product" of the system (when the Smith cheers and jumps up and down!) is the hammer (esp. high-end hammers). If the hammer then makes "dud" items it hurts a lot.

If randomness is desired in the making of items, then providing that you always get sufficient items commensurate with the effort of getting the hammer, things will be fine. So if you have a chance of making a great item, but you don't "get lucky", providing the item is still commensurate with your original effort, you will still have a happy smith.

Players like to influence results.

Players will like being able to choose the properties of items, but I suspect (with no evidence other than a "gut feel") that giving complete control over all the properties will be detrimental to the game.

The level of difficulty in a smith getting a gold or better hammer (let’s call them high-end hammers), is hugely greater than in a smith getting a bronze or less hammer (low-end hammers)(this may be controversial and is based on my own experiences - basically you can get a bronze hammer with a single sbod, whereas you need to complete a reasonably high-level lbod to get gold or better).

A high-end hammer typically involves months if not years of pretty dedicated playing. We shouldn't shy away from them being able to make some very good items. Say, with valorite hammers it wouldn't be so awful if they did in fact make close to artifact quality items (although unlike actual artifacts limited to 100% intensities).

Principles I would like to see applied:

Ideally players should have a choice as to the level of randomness involved, although there would be a "cost" to making the system more certain. This is a similar concept to the enhancement system. You can make/keep a good item, but if you want a great item you have to roll the dice.

Smith skill should always have an influence. ASH's can always be used to modify smith skill.

(Again this will be controversial given the scarcity of smith power scrolls - but given that power scrolls exist, the underlying principle should be the better the smith the better they are at smithing).

As a smith, its nice being able to make custom ordered items, the system if possible should facilitate that. Pre-AOS you could bang out what the customer wanted, just now you can't do that.

Two proposed solutions

There are two methods of proceeding, the first is a "minimal" change method - that is use the existing system but tweak it so that the high-end hammers produce better items. The second would require a lot more work, but encapsulates the "choice" concept. I imagine the second will be publishes off, but I for one would wait.

I personally feel that any changes only need to apply to "high-end" hammers, currently the system (for me) works for "low end hammers". The current curve is not so pronounced in the 0-65% intensity range. The number of charges and the availability of hammers are high enough that you can produce some interesting items. The work involved in the low-end hammers is a lot less - you don't break down into tears when you waste 35 charges of a copper hammer. You could easily get that upset when you "waste" 35 charges of gold one. Bronze hammers are a bit of a transition phase, but given they can be obtained with one sbod, I still think they fall in the low-end category. People will validly disagree with me on that one.

Solution one - The minimum change to the system solution.

Lets be honest here - I have no idea what is and what is not a minimum change to the system. I am going to assume anything which invloves a new gump/client change is a major change and anything which can be done server side only is a smaller change.

My view is that tweaking the curve and the minimum intensities will, in itself, give you a bunch of happy smiths. I have also assumed we keep the charges the same - so valorites will make 15 items, gold 35 items etc.

  1. Make sure each hammer makes items that are better than the one before it

    I think you want to make it certain that at least one intensity will be higher than the maximum intensity of the previous hammer. What do I mean by that? Well if you have a valorite hammer, the previous hammer is a verite one. Verites have a maximum intensity of 90%. Therefore with a valorite hammer, you can be assured one property will have an intensity of greater than 90%. A valorite hammer will always produce a better item than a verite one. And so on, so a gold hammer will have at least one property above 65% (the bronze maximum).

    Sure valorite items will now tend to be good - but that’s okay there won't be too many of them.

    You also have to be sure that this one property doesn't fall on something like night sight, or mana regeneration - it has to be something were an intensity at that level matters (or smiths will feel ripped of).
  2. Properties shouldn't duplicate.

    When a valorite hammer is made, you should see five properties - don't allow it to roll uses best weapon twice and spell effect three times (so you only see two properties applied). Again that just breeds "I got gypped by the system". Remember this is months of work (or weeks of work per hit) - any bad weapon causes pain.

  3. Step up the minimum intensity or flatten the curve?

    You mentioned one theoretical possibility of changing it so as to have a minimum intensity of 80% on each of the valorite properties. My initial reaction to that was "yikes - that seems a bit over the top", but on reflection maybe its not. If you keep the same steep curve then 96% of the properties are going to be on 80%. And that doesn't seem right. Although I railed against randomness earlier - I did caveat it, provided the minimum is good enough, perhaps there is room for randomness here. I would propose with each of the five properties in a valorite have a minimum starting at 90% and decreasing with each property.

    E.g. Property one minimum 91% (to be better than a verite)
    Property two minimum 80%
    Property three minimum 70%
    Property four minimum 60%
    Property five minimum 50%.

    AND flatten the curve - go the whole hog, straight-line it from the minimum to the maximum e.g. if the minimum is 65% and the maximum is 75% (e.g. gold) then roll from 65-75, straight line - not 0-65 = 65, but just 65-75. For a valorite with a property at the mimimum 60% range, the roll is from 60-100.

    Only protect the "top" property - the others can fall on things like night sight (where intensity is irrelevant) or mana regen (where intensity caps out at 51%).

    You will have to test this, but I suspect that with the 15 charges of a valorite weapon you will always get a good item commensurate with the work, and you have a chance of a great item with your 15 charges – if the curve is “exponential” with only “15 throws of the dice” you are not going to get a great weapon. They have worked hard, let them always make a good weapons and have a very good chance at a great one. Again its a question of balance, would say three items from a valorite hammer with three properties with intensities in the 90%+ range unbalance the shard. Given the scarcity of valorite hammers (and you would have better information on their numbers than me) I strongly suspect not.

    Similar methodologies could be applied with the other high-end hammers.
  4. Allow smith skill over 100 to influence result

    If the smith skill is greater than 100, subtract 100, divide by two and add it to the lowest minimum intensity. With a valorite hammer a gm smith with a +60 ash, would add +30 to one of the properties with a minimum intensity of 50% (so that that property has a minimum intensity of 80%), a legendry smith with the same ash +40. If my other proposals are adopted that means that a legendary smith with a +60 ASH and a valorite hammer will produce items with two properties at a minimum of 90% intensity - upto 15 of them. It sounds a lot, but how much work has gone into doing that - and its only 15 of them. Anyway its a question of balance so over to you /php-bin/shared/images/icons/wink.gif.

    However, by allowing skill to influence intensity, you will re-invigorate ASH’s and it is inline with the "more skill is better" ideaology.
Solution two - incorporating player choice.

This solution takes the previously discussed changes and adds a further aspect, which incorporates the principle of player choice (which I personally think is very important).

I have agonised over the best way to "cost" the player for the choice. I think utilising more charges is better than some alternatives e.g. lowering the maximum intensity or reducing the properties.

Basically it involves allowing the player to choose (With high-end hammers) up to three properties of the hammer - the cost being an extra charge per property chosen.

So, I envisage, a gump with a list of properties, one choice being random.

If two properties are determined by the smith, the item uses Base 1 + two chosen properties = 3 charges.

Smith's will be able to fulfil custom orders, but at a cost.

A possible alternative (if its needed to balance) is have the cost escalate, e.g. one property = 2 charges (base + 1), two properties = 4 charges, three properties = 7 charges. After all an items with three chosen properties (swing speed, life and mana leech anyone? Physical resist, fire resist, energy resist?) is going to be good. Again a player wants to choose, let them but it costs.

Please resist the temptation of having a chance the item is destroyed. If you are letting them remove the randomness at a cost, let them remove it, don’t replace it with a different random event.

So a hammer can produce fewer custom items, the choice is up to the smith.

The chosen properties should be the ones that receive the highest intensities.

Some miscellaneous things

Put a different stamp on the item depending on the high-end runic its made with e.g. a gold hammer might be - "an item of power crafted by ...", a valorite might be "an artifact crafted by ...". Smiths will love that /php-bin/shared/images/icons/smile.gif - Alternatively give them the chance to name things with intensities say above 80%.

Different GM marks for elder and legendary smiths.

Dragon armour - especially yellow dragon armour - does this have any point. Any piece of gold armour is better than the corresponding yellow dragon piece. Maybe make them "take" runic charges better (+10% intensity?).

Hmm - I didn't succeed in the under 100 words!.

These are just my suggestions. Now that you are aware of this issue, I have every confidence you will come up with a satisfactory solution.

Zardo
 
L

LanceBoru

Guest
I've read the inverse-square idea, and it looks like it fits very well. Congrats to Zardo for doing the experimenting and coming up with that.

I personally think that there is way too much math going on in the resist calculations. I think that if one stood back and verbalized the situation without doing any math, it might help.

I have a runic hammer. It adds a percentage of resist to the armor I make. The better the hammer, the higher the percentage bonus is likely to be. Now, it would be unrealistic to constantly make crappy armor, but I'm not so arrogant to think that my 100 skill level is going to produce consistantly great armor either. Nay, I would expect that most of my armor is going to be somewhere in the middle of the range of the bonus that I get from using the hammer.

"Most of the results are somewhere in the middle...." Sounds like a bell curve to me! Simple, but produces most excellent results. In fact, the bell curve more closely mimics real-world situations than most other math (except maybe the Fibonacci sequence :)). How much more simple, effective, realistic, and (gosh darn it) down right more attractive can you get than a bell curve? For a shadow runic:

The range is 20% to 45%. That's 25 percentage points, or 1/4 of the whole range of 1 to 100. Generate a bell curve with 2d50. Multiply this by the 1/4, and BAM! There is the number of percentage points above the minimum that the armor gets. Mathematically speaking:

Bonus Resist Points = ((((max-min)/100)*2d50+min)/100)*15

Just a thought.

I would like to know if there is any bonus at all to these calculations based on your skill. I honestly haven't done any serious smitty work since AoS, at least not enough to pay attention to my results compared to others. I have a little method to work in just a tiny tweak of your smitty skill into this bonus, which would prevent crazy-powerful stuff from 120 smitties, and would in fact give everyone a pretty much equal chance of making a crap helm or a great helm. It would simply make the "average" helm of a 120 smitty a bit better than the "average" helm of a 100 smitty. Which, if one stands back and verbalizes, is also pretty realistic: "We can both screw up, and we can both get lucky. On average, my stuff is a bit better than his is."

Lancer Boru
Brass Monkey Travel &amp; Trinket Shoppe
 
K

kettel

Guest
Thank you for your response evocare. I like Clovis of LS's Solution B
<blockquote><hr>

Dull Copper (d15 + 10) up to valorite (d50 + 50).You could use the derived skill as a bump factor (for example 180 smith has 80% chance to re-roll lowest roll or something like that)

<hr></blockquote>


I think that there should be a way for us to influence what properties are added. Items could be introduced one for each property. The items could spawn on monsters or you could use plants to add some player interaction. Maybe there should just be a way to not get a certain property. All I know is a hate getting piles of junk no one wants and smelting it yuck.

Zardo Zap's idea on choosing item properties would be easier to implement and I like it too.
 
D

Dev Lucixir

Guest
I think Zardos solutions are very reasonable. I myself have never gotten a Val hammer, but I have gotten a Verite one a couple of times. I understand the work that goes into them to get one, yet alone a Val Hammer.

I strongly agree with smiths skill level's affecting the name and properties of an item. After all, whats the point in doing all the hard work to become legendary VS GM if it just increases your chance of making an Excp Piece of armour? Wanna make 5 Breatplates and have 1 be excp or do all the hard work to become legendary and get 4 out of 5 excp? I think it would make it worth more for those who have put the extra hard work in to go higher then GM, and encourage others to do it as well. Again, Zardo has alot of good solutions that can be worked on.

The BOD system, very strange system indeed. When we talk about what needs to be filled to even get a higher end runic hammer, gold and up. Its very mis-balanced. I dont understand for the life of me, why a gm or higher smith would get several BODs for normal and Excp weapons. I thought the whole point to these types of bods when they were introduced was to give something for lower skilled smiths to do while gaining skill and encouraging them to keep at it. The past week I have gotten nothing but weapon bods, several daggers, and I cannot understand how this system is random when as it is now, you can pretty much predict what you are going to get. Im not saying gm's and higher shuld get Val bods everytime, so dont get me wrong, Im just saying that I think they should atleast be sbods for lbods VS the ones that have no purpose being in that skill Tier.

Ill think up a Design Tier to further express my opinion on the bod system, I wont get all into it here now, was mainly wanting to point out that Zardos has taken alot of time in research and just typing things about the runic system. My hats off to him for all his hard work.
 
K

Konstantine

Guest
Im really mad I burned thru my gold hammer a few weeks ago just to have the decent stuff made useless by the new 35% rule.
 
S

StealthMonkey

Guest
Zardo, excellent job, I think you should be offered a position as a Dev, you have the intelligence of a scientist (I wouldn't be suprised if you were one IRL). I think that your solutions to the problem are very well balanced and would definitely give smiths a reason to go back to the forge again. Hammer related tags on the items would be AWESOME (I like "An Artifact Created by " the most, maybe even add a rarity value to it according to the highest intensity). Stepped linear intensities by hammer (IE Solution 1) is probably the most viable (and most desireable IMO).

Cheers to ya
/php-bin/shared/images/icons/spiny.gif/php-bin/shared/images/icons/evileye.gif/php-bin/shared/images/icons/alien.gif/php-bin/shared/images/icons/arcade.gif/php-bin/shared/images/icons/eek4.gif/php-bin/shared/images/icons/smash.gif
 
E

eWo 4 Life

Guest
this is amazing work, and has absolutely stunned me

i have only recently gotten into the BOD systems, and am now wondering whether to keep working towards the high-end hammers that I have partially completed LBODs for.

However, my 2 cents......

*Definately linear, and remove Chop. If the possible range is, say, 20-45, i should have as much chance of getting 20 as i do of getting 23, 31, 44 or 45. For the life of me I can't think why it is not so, it just seems so obvious that this is the rational way to do things. Roll a dice that reflects the range, and then add the minimum value to it.

*LOVE Zardo's "Smithy's Choice" idea. Basically, if you wanna choose, its gonna cost ya. Seems fair to me.

*NO DOUBLING UP! Don't allow me to waste a Property by double rolling Night Sight, PLEASE! I only need one Night Sight property on my ENTIRE set of armour.

*Lastly, the fact that a Legendary Smith with a 60 ASH doesn't get a better chance of higher end than a GM with no ASH at all is just CRAZY!!!! I'm only GM, have no PS as yet, and I don't think I should have the right to sit equal with someone who has either filled a damned lot of LBODs to get their PS, or spent a fair amount of hard earned gold to get it. Skill = Increased Chance of Higher Percentage.

Cheers
 
O

Olias Strongbow

Guest
Runics suck ass now completely. You cant make decent armor anymore with them and I made a bronze runic hammerpick and it had no extra anything at all!! WTF!! no extra abilities at all it was identical to a hammerpick crafted by a regular hammer. You guys screwed up runics again. Make them useful again or make them way easier to get. Any runic up to and including bronze is totally crap now. You can easily find much better weapons and armor on monsters. I was looking forward to getting into bods again now with the books, but now i find i just dont care that much cus RUNIC HAMMERS BLOW NOW!!!
 
G

Guest

Guest
Well it looks like with the new info provided on items made, that players can more easily determine game mechanics (Thank you Zardo and others) and I think in this case that is a good thing.

For the amount of effort and time that goes into being in the Bod lottery, I think the rewards could be more straightforward. Even the best makeable is less than an artifact.

I can say that one day I will own an artifact, I cannot guarantee that I will own a valorite hammer. So lets make it worthwhile for those hardworking and lucky enough to get one.

Let me pull some number out of the air. How about for a valorite hammer; one value is auto 100%, no bonus is duplicated, all bonus values are over 80% now that is a hammer its owner would be proud to use.

I only suggest that reward because of the (to me) utterly unnecessary difficulty of getting such a reward. To me Tailor Bods are much better system, of course they had Smith Bods to learn from I suppose. I say that mainly because any tailor can reasonably expect to gain good rewards if they involve themselves with the Bod System, whereas Smiths do not. I am thinking of powerscrolls and the "good" hammers (gold and up).

Tis a game,I want to have fun and enjoy! So perhaps lets not be so hammerfisted with the smith rewards. /php-bin/shared/images/icons/smile.gif Have fun take care
 
V

Vadne

Guest
*blinks*

Wow o_O Thank you very, very much for your informative post with your experiments and calculations, Zardo. I've been fiddleing with my shadow, copper, and bronze hammers lately to see if my results were coming out close to your results (I tried my best to keep up with all the math and calculations. *remembers damning calculus and statistics to hell 3 semesters ago in college* Damnit.. we DO need math in real life /php-bin/shared/images/icons/frown.gif ), and they actually are. Yikes... I'm about to give up filling bods entirely now. =\

Anyway.. thanks again to everyone who's been contributing their results to this thread. I hope they make this thread a *sticky* (if they haven't already.. I was linked to here by a frustrated smithy friend on icq lol) for all obvious reasons.

Just one thing I HAVE to ask though... are you in any way a math major or professor? Man.. I'd never survive half way through conjuring up ways to figure this system out lol.
 
E

ehall

Guest
[edited to fix bug in formula]

Hi everybody. I used to post as Ursus on the old UO boards. Some may remember that I closed my second account and gave up on smith bods entirely when AOS was introduced, when the hammers were nerfed beyond use. I still have my verite and valorite hammers (unused), and I refuse to use them until the results are going to be equitable to the months of play and millions of gp I invested in obtaining them.

Evocare, the best way to fix this quickly is to change the use of the hammers to guaranteed enhancement success. The base metal should still provide certain properties, while the hammers should provide additional attributes and guaranteed intensity values. Specifically, we would want a grid where enhancing a weapon with a particular hammer and metal combination would produce a predictable result, and you'd need to use multiple strikes and metals to get specific properties. This would allow people to be able to create the best weapon/armor (up to the limits of the grid) by infusing it with each metal type and using multiple charges of a valorite hammer. Since the parameters of the grid could not be exceeded, this would not allow people to enhance an artifact beyond maximum. As such, player-crafted items would be as good as some of the higher-end artifacts, but nothing would be better than the best artifacts.

For discussion purposes, let's use the following metal attributes for weapons (armor would be a different), (again, this example is just for discussion purposes):

Iron: damage modifiers (see hammers)
Dull Copper: lower requirements
Shadow Iron: self-repair
Copper: defence chance
Bronze: hit chance
Gold: luck
Agapite: swing speed
Verite: drain choice
Valorite: damage choice (extra damage, slayer, etc).

The hammers would provide the following attributes and guarantees:

Iron: &lt;base value&gt;, &lt;no bonus attribute&gt;
Dull Copper: 12.5% max intensity, &lt;no bonus attribute&gt;
Shadow Iron: 25% max intensity, 5% extra cold damage
Copper: 37.5% max intensity, 5% harm spell attribute
Bronze: 50% max intensity, 5% extra fire damage
Gold: 62.5% max intensity, 5% extra energy damage
Agapite: 75% max intensity, 5% fireball spell attribute
Verite: 87.5% max intensity, 5% extra poison damage
Valorite: 100% max intensity, 5% lightning spell attribute

Since each enhancement would be guaranteed success at the cost of one charge per enhancement, and since the enhancements would be capped, I would have to use multiple charges and multiple metals in order to produce a truly fantastic weapon.

For example, let's say that I want to produce the ultimate dragon slayer weapon. I would need to create the weapon of my choice using iron first, then enhance it with the following hammer/metal combinations to produce the right attributes:

Valorite hammer with copper for max defence chance.
Valorite hammer with bronze for max hit chance.
Valorite hammer with agapite for max speed.
Valorite hammer with verite for max life drain.
Valorite hammer with verite for max mana drain.
Valorite hammer with verite for max stamina drain.
Valorite hammer with valorite for dragon slayer.
Valorite hammer with valorite for max damage increase.
Copper hammer with iron * 10 for 50% harm spell (the maximum).
Shadow hammer with iron * 20 for 100% cold damage.

That is 8 strikes with a valorite hammer, 10 strikes with a copper hammer, and 20 strikes with a shadow hammer, all to produce one weapon.

As stated earlier, the maximums would be capped, and it would not be possible to enhance beyond that, so the best you could do would be to use up several hammers on an artifact and come up with a capped artifact, where some of the 'found' attributes were higher than the maximum already, and those attributes could not be improved upon.
 
J

jcesare

Guest
2 fundemental points:

1) Whatever the soution is, I think skill should somehow be incorpoarted into the equation.

2) Let us actually craft instead of this being a lottery. (HINT: Check out what SWG is doing with crafting and experimentation)


Blue Sky Proposal (I'll let the mathematicians figure out the "how" and "balance" issues):
When crafting, a gump shows you what properties you can attempt to add. The more skill you have the more attribute choices you have. The ore type can also modify what choices are available. This should be the case for both Runic crafting and enhancing. The better the hammer, the greater the chance of success and the greater the intensity. By success I mean actually getting the attribute you want. If you fail then you get a different attribute and a lower intensity. People who are not smiths always walk up and ask "Can you make me a &lt;pick an item&gt; with &lt;pick an attribute&gt;?" You then have to explain that "No you can't pick attributes. It's all random. Crafting is very primtive."

A random number generator is the quick, dirty, and cheap solution to a complex problem. If you are paying attention to your paying customers AT ALL, then it should be obvious that the number one complaint of the crafters is that the whole thing has become a Lottery. Sooner or later we're all gonna hit bottom and realize there is no way to win. That is why people are using high end BODs and Runics as house decorations. They're worth more as "rares."
 
T

Thodin

Guest
Hmm, time for mu suggestions.

First of all, how about working out intensities via a normal distrobution curve? That way players should find runic intensities a little more intuative, the majority of items made being from the middle of the intensity range, a few at either extreme.

Secondly, constant smithy bonuses. arms lore could always add durability bonus and resist points, anatomy could add resist points, tactics could add to damage increase... there has to be a way to do these so that they're nice, but not required for competitivity (eg, multiple sources of the same bonus type don't stack)
(in italics so that I don't get anyone going "You're out to ruin us!!!!", since it's a change which you might have to adapt to, that might actually mean that an ubermule isn't the best way, and heaven knows how much UO players can cope with change.... perhaps though this change might mean you get more choice... think about it, perhaps you culdn't be an ubermule, but what if anatomy allowed you to choose where resist bonus points should be placed?)

Thirdly, and I think everyone is agreed with this - no duplicate effects. If a duplicate is rolled, reroll it.

On the matter of being able to choose what properties you get to add, I'm strongly against. As a buyer, I don't want to see some properties disapear from the market alltogether. And I know they will, if you get to choose what you can add. It'll mean that I'll have to beg my friends to create my weapons for me, and so your trade will indeed be reduced. If you must have choice, then I'd say a few properties only, dependant upon the hammer level:

Dull Copper : 0
Shadow : 0
Copper : 1
Bronze : 1
Golden : 2
Agaphite : 2
Verite : 3
Valorite : 3

This way, you get choice, all the properties should still be availible on the market, and you could even set up some uber combinations.

I'd also like to see the ability to asign bonus resist points from the exceptional bonus, too. That I feel is far more important.


To recap:
1: use a normal distrobution curve for intensity
2: No duplicate properties
3: Don't allow choice of properties to add, if you do, limit it to a few of the properties possible only.
4: Make runic hammers really for the special effects, things like resistance points and durability should be offered by other skills in ways which don't massively force one template upon crafters, but promotes variation and dedication.
 
B

brokensaber

Guest
I would like a random generated menu to pop up, then i can choose properties, Then I would be able to service customers to a certain degree.


Check out the Ideas Den , Subject: Revamp on runics.
 
C

Clovis of LS

Guest
Other brain farts on my behalf.

Enhancement &amp; runic hammers
Using runics for enhancement as well as crafting is a good idea.
If you want to enhance it uses 1 charge (no aditional properties just pure enhancement)
you could use the min and max intensity properties to determin the success rate
example a Enhanceing with a dull copper will give you a (d15 +10)% success rate a Valorite would give (d50 +50)% success rate.
The Derived skill level of the User could be used to determin % Chance for a re-roll in case of failure.

This would make an additional use for these items would permit and the higher the hammer the better % chance you have of enhancing items.

and to take some of Zardos Ideas which I love just so they are repeated /php-bin/shared/images/icons/smile.gif

<blockquote><hr>


Make sure each hammer makes items that are better than the one before it

Properties shouldn't duplicate.

flatten the curve (straight line)

Allow smith skill over 100 to influence result

Solution two - incorporating player choice.

Different GM marks for elder and legendary smiths.



<hr></blockquote>

Geeze I come to realize I would be cutting and pasting 90% of his post /php-bin/shared/images/icons/smile.gif


(Just other smithy crafting in general ideas)

Exceptional Bonus:
I still don't comprehend why its different between GM and Runics.
Why not make the Exceptional bonus skill based instead of yes or no. the item will allways be exceptional but will have different modifiers depending on the skill.
here are 2 methods my brain came up with on the drive to work.

Method 1:
First based of a static 15% max bonus as today.
split this bonus into a static part and a random part, say the 15% becomes (d10 + 5).
Use the derived skill to determin re-rolls of lowest scores. 180 derived skill = 80% chance to roll a second time and keep the highest of the 2
this way all smiths can have a chance of creating 15% items, but higher level smiths will have a better chance at it.
the same thing can be done with DI instead of the todays method of making GM exept weapons the equivelent to the old Vanquishing weapons.

Method 2:
Make the exceptional Bonus static per level.
below and 99.9 skill gives 5%
100 - 109.9 gives 7%
110 - 119.9 gives 9%
120 - 129.9 gives 11%
130 - 139.9 gives 13%
140 - 149.9 gives 15%
150 - 159.9 gives 16%
160 - 169.9 gives 17%
170 - 179.9 gives 18%
180 gives 19%

These are not real numbers of course, they are just given to show a scale the actual numbers should come from reds after discussing balancing and so forth.


the BOD system it self:
I know I am repeating myself but the smithy BOD system needs to be revamped to map out more closely the Tailoring BOD system.
introduce new items besides the pickaxes and pros tools (tons of allready in game items to chose from with our having to design new ones),
If you decide that actually using a (dx + y) system would make lower end runics too common and unbalance the game well this is the time to change
that. you could very well stop giving runics for SBODs and only give them for LBODs to start off with. if you make power scrolls more available, make runics more worth while and introduce extra items into the system im sure no one would care.


Just more brain farts that i hope are at least being read by reds.. (this has become a brain storming session i think right?)
 
P

paladin561

Guest
First off, I'd like to thank you for the attention.

Second, an idea:

Obviously, some folks would like 15 uber weapons from a hammer. Probably won't ever happen due to many factors (unbalancing, etc.).

However, what if a smith was allowed to retry an attempt, using another charge from his valorite (or other runic hammer) to improve a weapon or armor already made with a runic hammer. Basically, no attribute would decrease or be added, and the chance to improve any existing attribute would be small, but it would allow a smith to choose.

This would make it possible to construct a high-end weapon or armor piece while not allowing too many high-end items to be made. This would also allow a smith to work his craft. For example, smithy is working his lower hammers and comes up with a nice slayer weapon. then deciding to improve on this design, he switches runic hammers to his high-end group to make it better.

Sounds like a real smith working his craft using the tools at his disposal. Instead of smelting back to ingots, 98% of the things made because they're useless.

Just an idea, I'm sure ti can be improved on.

Albus
Pacific Smith
 
C

Clovis of LS

Guest
not really ubber weapons because even if they go for a normal distribution like a (d50 + 50) calculation for valorite hammers.. (this means an equal chance to get 100% as to get 50%. but that chance is still 1 out of 50 for each property..
so the chance of getting all 5 properties with 100% intensity would be (1/50) ^ 5
basically you would have a 0.00000032 % chance of getting all 5 properties at 100% (and beleive it or not its better than what is in place today)

hopefully they would use something like the smith skill to bump that chance up a bit to like .01 % at least (which means 1 of 10000 weapons would have 100% on all 5 properties "Artifact Level Quality" Id say.

I wouldn't say that everyone wants 15 ubber weapons when you look at the proposals. Its more like after 4 - 12 months of collecting bods to get this runinc they would like to be able to create 15 good weapons and a possible chance to create 1 ubber weapon.. (thats the way I see it in a nut shell)


I do like your idea about re-working existing items though
 
P

paladin561

Guest
Well, I didn't mean everyone or even most, but there are those who would want it to turn out that way if they had a chance.

And, I didn't want to get into the math part, as much fun as that probably would be. I have plenty of mental gymnastics to do at work already.

I believe fixing the overall methodology of chance in this arena has to be addressed. The reward is not even close to matching the effort.

That being said, the idea of attempting to (trying to avoid the word "enhance") improve upon one's work makes sense. Just like making 5,000 plate tunics would make me more proficient at make them over another piece of armor. I would attempt to make each subsequent one better than the previous and so forth.

And, of course your skill level should affect the outcome in some way other than % chance of success (making or exceptional).

One side note, if the original weapon happened to be a double slayer, made by a DC hammer, then it would be futile to attempt an improvement with a higher hammer. Since the original hammer only allows 2 attributes and you can't improve these two particular attributes.

This restriction of adding new attributes with a higher-level hammer would limit the possible abuses possible with this approach. (e.g. Why waste a charge off a Valorite hammer to improve only 2 attributes...)

Albus
Pacific Smith
 
K

kettel

Guest
I have been doing bods for over a year and still haven't gotten a ps120 but i don't think thats really a bad thing. Be carefull not to make smithy like tailoring. Make arms lore affect smithy chance for success and bod gathering or get rid of it. Tying arms lore into your ability to choose what properties are added would also be nice. I like zardos idea of having a drawback for choosing properties.

I still wish this thread was locked.
 
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