From 250,000 subscribers down to most probably under 10k? Maybe everyone hasn't left yet but more than 95% have. So yes .... it is as broken as some make it seem.
i would suggest those figures are pretty accurate...but some will disagree....so for the arguments sake we will say 10-15k left....being a reather generous nature that i have...
I would suspect subscription numbers are closer to the 2000 range, unfortunately. Let's check the math though.
We know of 5 developers, Messana, Kyronix, Misk, Bleak, Onifirk. (Or however you spell their online handles).
5 developers at 50K a year in salary would be 250k a year in salary. (You could argue for 35K a year in salary, or that overhead per employee takes you closer to 100k a year per employee, but let's say 50k as a middle ground - and for easy math.)
250k per year, divided by 12 months per year, means they have to be making about 20k per month (closer to 21k) to cover salaries.
20k per month at an average subscription of $10, is 2000 subs per month (closer to 2100). This isn't number of people subscribing, but number of subscriptions paid.
Of course, some people pay by the month, some pay by 6 months, some pay every 4 months, so $10 a month seems a good middle ground (and easy math).
There will also be extra revenue from the UO store, subs might be substantially higher, EA has to take a cut, there will be additional overhead just from the day to day of running a business, etc. etc. etc.
Our best guess is just order of magnitude.
However, if they drop below 2000 subs, they can't cover salaries at 50k. (Maybe they earn 35K a year just to keep UO going? Seems unlikely with Virginia's cost of living.)
Or, if they had 4000 subs, that would be nearly double the revenue of "average" salaries for 5 developers. Wouldn't they hire another developer? Or does EA and overhead that take much?
Edit - Something I thought of after I posted was houses. How many houses are still there? Are there 1000 houses per shard? That would really blow away the above math. If there were still that many houses though, then the revenue would be way over the "average" salaries for 5 developers, what are they doing with the extra? Good bourbon can be expensive...
Or are there still a ton of houses, but many house owning accounts paying only once in four months?