Small BODs are not all the same bank value. The players who made the chart that shows points for each level, added the exact points up. 10 plain dough and 20 ex dough are not the same value.
No duh.... I AM the one that rewrote the BOD FAQS AND GUIDES ON STRATICS ten years ago, after all (after most of it being out of date since before AoS - and I paused work on new guides HOPING that the devs would get around (as they promised) to fixing the messed up carpentry and fletching BODs).
But there are a few guidelines my estimate was based on.
- Most non-smith/tailor BODs are normal only. Scribe and alchemy are all normal for their base items (scrolls, potions), Fletching. Carp and Tinker are mostly normals (and often the smalls can be exceptional but the larges can't). Of all things, COOKING is the only one that seems to approximate the ratios we see for Smith (50%) or Tailor (33.3%)
- 10/15/20 are supposed to be equal chance. That's 0.2/0.5/1.0 bank points respectively for normals of base materials, or an average of around 0.5666. My 300 BODs were a little light on 20s (I've not done tailor BODs yet for the trees, just did tinker last night (and awaiting turn-in on those), and filled several 20-count ex weapons LBODs (after bribing some 20 normals up to Ex), so the actual average was probably closer to 0.55.
- Because of the conditions in #1 above (And, again, having not yet gone on my tailor BOD filling spree), the percentage of exceptional BODs in the 305 or so (+/- 5 - went from three-twenty-something to an even 20 when the book was reduced to JUST larges - I literally got the CB tree on the LAST small in the book) was less than 20% (mostly smith and Carpenters) that's another 4 points each for about 40 BODs.
- Lastly, only about the last 30 BODs I turned in (was down to about 50 BODs at that point) were colored material, and none of them higher than gold for the smith or Ash for the carpentry. So most of those were another 4-6 points (the excessive number of DC & Oak probably brought the lot down to less than the 4.5 for Shadow).
So, to calculate
Line 2 results in 300-ish times something just south of 0.55 or about 160-170 bank points
Line 3 results in another 160 bank points (40x4)
Line 4 results in another 120-150 bank points (30 x something between 4 & 5)
So, that looks like something between about 440-500 bank points to get a Charlie Brown tree.
Last year, I was able to get a Charlie Brown tree in every city on LA (including the ones ignored by my fellow crafters, as they concentrated most of their BODs on Jhelom last year - and talking around with them, I found I was the ONLY person to drop a BOD in 2 of the cities) with only about ONE HUNDRED points of small BODs (10-12 colored smith BODs, with an average value of around 8 to 10 depending on if they were normal or exceptional). And I was able to get to the next tree (the unadorned small green tree) WELL before hitting 500 banked points. It was after that where the BODs amounts got extreme.