WAR has just shown what will happen with a "classic" shard. A fantasy PvP focused game just doesnt work long term.
You make a fantasy MMO cater mainly to the minority PvP crowd and when there is a lack of content on production shards for extended periods developing and fixing all the bugs on this "classic" shard, the 2000 returning PvPers are not going to offset the droves of PvEers that leave. All I can say is remember 1997, the year of the KR client. There was 9 months when there was no new content and UO lost ~30,000 subscribers in that year.
Only PvP, and only PvE (guild wars and factions) servers with the latest patch would be far cheaper and quicker to develop and more successful than a "classic" shard. Besides we already know that the "classic" shard campaign is just the same a handful of people repeatedly spamming and one of them is a markey dragoon wannabee who made a living off UO... "Oooooo dont do anything about cheating... UO will shut down."
ERm...
I see you're still bitter about the chewing up and spitting out you received in the classic shard thread... rolleyes: Probably because you made up lots of apparent "statistics" in a vain attempt to back up your arguments, but could provide no such proof when called out over them.
You're also happy to make spurious accusations against other players, which again, you have no proof. Sounds to me that it's not just a chip on your shoulder... but a whole sack of potatoes there pal!
As for "statistics", the only one anyone can say for certain, is that there's a hell of a lot more
former players of UO, than there is
current players.
To get more players, there's only really two options:
Create a couple of classic shards. Bring back some of those former players. The exact numbers of how many would play are entirely open to conjecture, but there's plenty out there who play game after game, looking for what pre-Tram, pre-AoS UO offered them. Neither UO or any other game has been able to offer them that for a good number of years. The closest most recently I would think, is perhaps Fallen Earth, but that's an entirely different genre.
Or...
Complete re-design from the ground up. 3D graphics engine that's at least of sufficient quality to match other games out there. Maybe even a completely new game entirely.
Of those two options, the latter is the most likely to attract "new" players in sufficient numbers. It's pretty clear that EA won't fund that option directly themselves, which is why they've sold the rights to do so to NetDragon, who are looking to cash in on the void left open since WoW has gone "missing" in China. If it takes off, then it could do wonders for Ultima Online as a brand, though it might be entirely nothing like the game we've played for so many years.
Classic shards as an option, would seem the most feasible way to bring back predominantly former players, perhaps for the least outlay. Nobody can say with any certainty, if this would bring back either sufficient or sustained subscriptions, or over the short or long term.
Let's face facts though. We all know that EA have tried to pull the plug on UO, more than once to my recollections. It's still here, but it's hardly thriving.
I think it will indeed stay here, for the time being, but when the NetDragon version goes live in 2011, plus if it's open to Western players, it will be interesting to see what the impact is. At this stage, NetDragon has the rights for specific areas of the Asian market. My gut feeling is though, that if it's successful, then either they will try to buy the rights to Ultima Online entirely, or EA will offer them to NetDragon, so that they can finally wash their hands of something I don't think they've ever felt comfortable holding.
Let us also not forget here, that it's the Asian player base (mainly Japan) that's keeping Ultima Online afloat. The last published figures and the best guesses since, suggests the percentage of the entire player base is about 70% Asian, with the remainder split amongst North America, Europe, and a very small proportion remaining from Oceania. Were UO completely reliant on its "Western" player base, I think the horse would have bolted a long time ago and we wouldn't be here now, talking about its past, present or future.
Something nobody here has actually asked of the developers, yet it's been widely covered in press releases around the net, is that NetDragon are producing the "new" Ultima Online based game,
with help from Mythic.
Perhaps you need to be asking the developers a few things...
How's Cal's Chinese...?
How much time are they spending working with NetDragon on the "new" UO?
What (if any) impact does this have on the UO
we know here?