That's absolutely right. The population WILL be different..Man, you're sort of ignoring one giant flaw in your argument (and so are most everyone else, so this isn't personal!):
The population on a classic shard WILL be different from the 1999 UO population.
But to counter that point, what is different about the population NOW that would somehow make it better?
Is it true that all those people who are playing these shards for free are going to JUMP at the opportunity to pay 15 a month to do the same thing on an EA serve?
Are people of the WoW Generation (tm) who had never played an MMO before, but have a very real sense of entitlement, going to embrace FFA PvP full loot and ganking without consequence or penalty to those doing it?
Is it going to be only adults, with no desire to re-enact such childish behavior?
In the modern graphical age, are MMO players clamering to play a sprite-based game with graphics from 1998? (Or worse, if you consider EC)?
I am honestly curious here - What has changed in FAVOR of a classic shard, other than nostalgia?
This, again, completely true.You can't say that people will leave because of griefers and PKs because you don't know who will be on the shard in the first place. We can all guess, but I'd be pretty confident in saying that people that left in '98-'99 are pretty much with UO, period.
Which is why, I'll state again, "Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it". I'm going to put it in my sig, actually..
History has already shown that the population went UP after Trammel. It has been stated before (God help me, can't find the article now) by former and current developers that prior to Trammel, UO was hemorrhaging players.
I can only make assumptions based on what has already happened. You can't assume it's going to be any different, because you have even less data to support that it will be any different. I, at least, am drawing conclusions based on things that already HAVE happened.
Why is it that you believe that if you set up the exact same conditions as before trammel, that THIS time, you're going to get a different outcome?