When will all the houses be won by?

[Trevelyan]

I think somewhere, either Mark or Phoenix or someone said that a random number was chosen between 0 and 1,000,000 * number of players doing it. However, that multiplier decreases by a factor of 10 each day, meaning by Sunday, someone *will* have won on every shard, correct?

This means that on Monday there was a 1 in 1,000,000 chance of *someone* winning, Tuesday 1 in 100,000, Wednesday 1 in 10,000 and today a 1 in 1000 chance. Means tomorrow we have a 1 in 100 chance and by Saturday theres quite a significant chance (1 in 10, meaning at least 4 should be won over all shards). Then on Sunday, all the rest will be won (assuming that the "winner" actually tries that day).

Amirite?

 

[Ender]

I'm not really seeing the logic in the random number and all that junk.

 

[Trebr Drab]

It seems to me that if the player who's picked on a given day doesn't do the quest that day, so no one wins it, then there's a chance that no one wins. Especially of players start giving up.

But I don't really understand the way it works.

 

[Trevelyan]

The way I understood it, it breaks down into 2 parts;

- First, each day is taken the number of people who have done the part 1 quest

- Secondly you have a multiplier to decide IF someone is chosen (1 mil on day 1, 0 on day 6)

1000 players entered on day 2 would mean that there is a 1 in 100,000 chance of SOMEONE winning. Then there is a 1 in 1000 chance that it is YOU that wins. This means you have a 1 in 100 million chance of winning.

The way it works is that a number is chosen between 0 and 100 million on day 2, if theres 1000 players. If the number is between 0 and 1000, then that means someone could win that day (if they try!)

So today there is a 1 in 1000 chance that someone on any of the shards will win (because each day, that chance is divided by 10). If a shard passes that check, then there is a 1 in <number of participants> chance that *you* will win.

 

[Diggity]

Acutally I think when the multiplier becomes 1, there is only a 50% chance that the house will be won and only IF everyone eligible does the 3rd quest on that day. The way I read the post, the die roll is (number of participants) + (daily multipier) * (number of participants). So, today the multiplier is 1000, the chance is about 1 in a 1001 the house will be won if everyone eligible tries. Tomorrow it is 1 in 101. Saturday 1 in 11. Sunday 1 in 2. Again, all of these assume everyone eligible runs the 3rd quest. I doubt that will be the case.

 

[Trebr Drab]

The way I read it was that if the number generated is 1000 or less (assuming 1000 players did the first quest), then the player who has that number can win if he runs the 3rd quest on that day. In other words, the player who can win is predetermined on that day, and if he runs the third quest he will win the house.

But that boggled my mind because of the chance that no one ever wins, so I gave up trying to understand it.

But maybe I read it wrong.

 

[Trebr Drab]

OK, I found the post I read from Mark_Mythic. linked below.

here's what he said:

OK, for the math fans out there, I will just tell you all how it is working under the hood. Basically I built a list of player characters who are eligible by registering them when they complete part 1. In part 3, I take the number of characters in the list and then multiply that number by another number... the first day is 1,000,000. So, if 1000 people are registered, then the first day we roll a number between 1 and 1,000,000,000, if I rolled under 1001 then someone is a winner for that day. If they do the quest on that day, they win and the contest is over. The next day we roll again, but this time the list has 1001 people on it (because someone new did Part 1). Day 2 we multiply the number in the list by 100,000, and roll on 100,100,000. If we roll under 1002 then someone has won... though they won't know it unless they do the quest ***on that day*** with that character. So, any day might be YOUR day. The multiplier is divided by 10 each day till we are just multiplying the list by 1 next Monday. Every day after that we multiply the number in the list by 1 until we have our winners.
​

Note the bold text. So, if for each day the person that gets chosen has given up on the quest, is away on vacation, has to go to jail, whatever, then there can be no winner that day. Now, eventually there will be a winner, as long as someone runs the 3rd quest. But that could possibly end up being many years from now. That's not likely, but possible.

http://vboards.stratics.com/showthread.php?p=1682545#post1682545

 

[Diggity]

Yah I think you are right. All the one's and zero's confused me . The daily die roll is just # participants * the daily multiplier.

so if everyone runs the quest, Sunday should have a winner. So I'll guess a few won on Saturday and most by Sunday.

 

[NuSair]

Yah I think you are right. All the one's and zero's confused me . The daily die roll is just # participants * the daily multiplier.

so if everyone runs the quest, Sunday should have a winner. So I'll guess a few won on Saturday and most by Sunday.

As long as everyone who is eligible for the quest, does the quest, yes.

 

[Aroma]

LoL also means this could roll on for months before the winner shows up LMAO...

 

[Trebr Drab]

LoL also means this could roll on for months before the winner shows up LMAO...

That's what I said above. But if that happens, I'm sure they can get a new list from those who did the 3rd quest the day before. Would probably need to add a multiplier again so that people away from the game don't feel they had no chance at that point.
It was just a little snafu. Easily fixed.

 

[Gelf]

on day 1(monday) u have .0001% chance that someone from the list of people who did 1st part of the quest will be chosen

on day 2(tues.) .001%
on day 3(wed.) .01%
on day 4(thurs.) .1%
on day 5(fri.) 1%
on day 6(sat.) 10%
on day 7(sun.) , and the days following 100%

it would only continue past day 7 if the person chosen did not do quest that day. from what i've seen it's very unlikely that it would go much past day 7, if it goes past it at all