I have a feeling that any article that asks people to "be honest" probably will fail at being factual. I am sick of this issue, but since it keeps coming up, I need to respond to a few things:
Well I happen to believe that EA MYTHIC would not intentionally ban and irreversibly delete the belongings of innocent, paying customers unless they were certain of guilt.
Then you are far more trusting than I am. Companies sometimes make mistakes against innocent, paying customers. Heck, sometimes people working for companies take malicious actions against innocent, paying customers. I won't trust a company to be competent just because it is in their best financial interest.
The people at EA Mythic are human beings with all the problems. In UO's history, there have been confirmed cases of GMs who abused their powers (Darwin?), cases where people have been unbanned, and times where EA just made mistakes (Cyborg Blackthorne).
It is very possible that some innocent, paying customer was banned with their items deleted by mistake. I'm just not sure if that actually happened. Without knowing what steps were taken during the investigation (for example, where shard backups looked at to see if certain duped items were found on vendors), I can't even give good probabilities that someone innocent was banned. A few extreme examples:
1. Only the possession and number of duped items were looked at. High Probability that someone innocent was banned because of state of free trade in UO.
2. Looking through server backups, individual duped items were traced to the original item they were duped from. The history is used to determine who purchased the item and for how much. Low probability that someone innocent was banned.
Number two is problematic since server backups are once per day, and underpriced items on a vendor in Luna tend to sell in hours. Unless the item and vendor tracking has gotten a lot better (which is possible probably the dev team wouldn't want to tell a cheating public), I'm guessing only possession was looked at. It is possible that some dupers were stupid and kept a whole pile of illegal items, but the big time dupers usually use layers of accounts to protect their illegal funds. They will be back at work as soon as a new dupe is found. Until then, I guess they will script or hack accounts or something.
I have a great deal of respect for those on the dev team working to fight cheating. Even if only a small part of the population is cheating, it is still likely more people cheating than working to fight cheating. Our dev team is outnumbered, and each time they fix one exploit, the other side is looking for or found more to exploit. I give them my patience and my respect, but I can't give them blind trust.