Estimates - yes.
Hard numbers - no.
Any number anyone quotes here will be immediately shouted down by AoS/Tram fanbois...so don't bother.
No...that's not true.
A person can say 1,000,000,000+ are playing Free Shards.
How many people play Free FB games? How many people play any free online game, as compared to the Paying ones?
That's the REAL question...not whether or not the people playing Free Shards will translate at whatever percentage to $12 a month folks, instead of the zero they currently pay.
Because honestly...I doubt that even if the people playing free UO had a chance to pay $12, when they have what they want for free...well...
A person doesn't have to look very far for an objective answer, for sure.
In all the elapsed time since Cal carelessly mentioned that they were looking at doing a Classic Shard...not one peep. Not one at all, that I have seen.
Now...perhaps they are feverishly working from behind the scenes...reading the other thread breathlessly...trying to make everything just right for you folks...
Or...maybe you are doing what people have done since about 2000...ask for no Trammel, and a Classic Shard, when there isn't even a glimmer of one on the horizon, at all, other than about 12 words from the Producer. So...then came Siege...the "Classic Shard" of the day...that hasn't worked out so well. I guess it's difficult to please all the people all the time.
Once they look at Siege and Mugen, it becomes pretty obvious that from a revenue standpoint, the outlook for a heavily resourced and Beta'd Classic Shard could be bleak, perhaps.
So...fanbois like me wouldn't say the numbers are wrong in how many play Free Shards. I have no way of knowing one way or the other.
It's the logic that all those folks...or even a large percentage...or even a pretty big percentage...would come back to start paying for what they get free right now. And, that they would stay long enough, if they did come, to recover the cost of building out such a shard.
I am no expert statistician, of course, but it isn't a large leap of logic to go from Dead Fel and Dead Siege to Dead Classic Shard.
Really...it's not. There could be billions of people waiting to play a Classic Shard...I will not debate that fact.
I will debate until the cows come home on the viability of producing a shard that enough people will like, continue to like it once they started playing it, and would pay to play.
I spoke personally with one of the original developers of UO...FertBert, and I was clearly told that resurrecting that code would take a lot more than a bit of work, and that was like 6 years ago or something. I doubt it has gotten any easier since.
Anyway...I digress...sorry about that. It is likely the Holier than Thou attitude of people that call people that enjoy playing in Trammel a "Fanboi" and discounting any less than optimistic challenge to "Hard Numbers" as a "Shout Down" that will preclude success of a classic shard more than anything else, in my opinion.
But in that I could be wrong as well.
Maybe you and your Go Get Em Attitude will have them lined up in a queue, waiting to get in. Maybe you can force a Classic Shard, with the help of the other 6 persistent posters in the other thread...good luck!