Temporary Increased Doom Artifact Spawn Rates & The Effect On Prices

[Guest]

I for one feel that many of the low prices we are currently seeing on Doom artifacts will be temporary, and that in time many of them will increase in value.

Below is a list of the low, median, and high prices on LS in case anyone feels like comparing.

Ornament of the Magi
<font color="red">24m, X, 33m </font>
Spirit of the Totem
<font color="red">14.5m, 16.7m, 18.7m </font>
Jackals Collar
<font color="red">12m, 13.5m, 16m </font>
Armor of Fortune
<font color="red">X, X, X </font>
Hat of the Magi
<font color="red">12m, 13.5m, 16m </font>
Ring of the Vile
<font color="red">4.5m, 4.5m, 4.5m </font>
Leggings of Bane
<font color="red">3.5m, 5.5m, 7m </font>
Hunter's Headdress
<font color="red">X, X, X </font>
Ring of the Elements
<font color="red">2.8m, 3.5m, 4m </font>
Arcane Shield
<font color="red">2.6m, 2.6m, 2.6m </font>
Staff of the Magi
<font color="red">2m, X, 3.5m </font>

 

[Guest]

Making something easier to get never raises the value. That would only happen if the population exploded. My prediction is Ornament of Magician will bottom out around 5-10 million. Everything else will be worth less.

 

[Sorcon Gartius]

HoM already hit 10 on Legends.

 

[Guest]

<blockquote><hr>

Making something easier to get never raises the value. That would only happen if the population exploded. My prediction is Ornament of Magician will bottom out around 5-10 million. Everything else will be worth less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes the drop rate is higher, but that does not mean that of the 20 some artifacts from the gauntlet that a large or equal portion of those that are received are high end artifacts.

Yes the price will drop in the begining, especially with the sheer influx of items from the first day, but as the drop rate begins to level out, there will be the people who chose to keep the artifacts they recieved and those who sell them.

Taking into consideration that many players want to be able to plug in and play and do not want to have to go to Doom to recieve their own artifacts it stands to reason that as new players come to UO, and current players create new chars, or vets return that they will want artifacts for their suits, and with time the number of each artifact in circulation will be disseminated back into the population.

Yes there are more out there now, but if you recall the duping phase of summer '06, at the end of it all even with all the extra artifacts that had been created remaining in the game the price returned to about the point it was at before duping had become prevalent. Yes there were other factors that contributed to this, and perhaps the current attempt to replicate that will not be as successful, but we shall see

 

[imported_gwen_alcestis]

5m for an ornie?

I seriously doubt it really.

My prediction is Ornie will level out somewhere around 26-30m.

With golden skulls at a whopping 1 million a piece? People still have to at least break even. and you need about 5 low end arties already to make up for your entrance ticket at this point.

Anyway, on Europa i have sold the following significant arties since the changes:
- Ornie 27m
- HoM 14m
- AoF 14m
- Vile 6.5m

The really crappy ones i repriced to 200/300k each (Frostbow, Lance,...)
Medium crappy ones to 400/500 (Divine, Maul, ...)
Medium high crap 1.3m (Voice, Gauntlets,...)

A few of those have sold as well.

I guess that means about -50% on the arties worth under 3m
For the ones worth more, -25%
Roughly.

 

[Black Majick]

<blockquote><hr>

With golden skulls at a whopping 1 million a piece? People still have to at least break even. and you need about 5 low end arties already to make up for your entrance ticket at this point.





[/ QUOTE ]

If you do it like me, you could take an hour killing patchworks skeles right where you get gold skull at and have the bones in an hour or so. Then just wax bone daemon on you archer and you have gold skull in hour and 5 mins or so. Maybe less.

I also predict that with the chance to get a 10-15m drop arty alot of folks will live in doom. Especially on the larger shards. Will have a crowd to do doom any time of day. Prices on the high end ones will level out. Not at 5-10m, but I predict around 20m or so for orny decreasing from there. You also have to take into account the amount of gold you can farm now. No more BoS so lots less gold coming into the economy. Lots still out there yes, but for the rich folks, most already have the arties they need. Its the folks who farm gold who will be buying and most of them will be tighter with there checks.

Ne ways. Waiting for server to come back up, then off to doom I go.

 

[midiguru]

Yes but your not even taking into consideration how the BOS nerf is going to effect the economy. If the value of a mil check goes up then the price on these items should not only drop due to the influx from doom but also due to the fact that gold is worth more. If the gold goes up in value to assume that the price range will stay the same is pretty silly. The prices should eventually drop to reflect the new value of gold and the new influx of items. For someone who claims to be one the "best" sellers on LS you should think a little more before you type.

I hate to burst your bubble but the price of these items isn't going to ever go up again except maybe on "your" vendors. Prices for inquiz or the like that aren't from the gauntlet will probably raise in value because of the influx of doom gauntlet artifacts however when the gold values settle in those may decrease as well. Anyone with a basic understanding of any economy would know that. Says alot about your understanding of economics lol.... Bottom line is "all" prices will be going down and will only be going up on vendors trying to rip people off.

 

[Guest]

<blockquote><hr>

Yes but your not even taking into consideration how the BOS nerf is going to effect the economy. If the value of a mil check goes up then the price on these items should not only drop due to the influx from doom but also due to the fact that gold is worth more. If the gold goes up in value to assume that the price range will stay the same is pretty silly. The prices should eventually drop to reflect the new value of gold and the new influx of items. For someone who claims to be one the "best" sellers on LS you should think a little more before you type.

I hate to burst your bubble but the price of these items isn't going to ever go up again except maybe on "your" vendors. Prices for inquiz or the like that aren't from the gauntlet will probably raise in value because of the influx of doom gauntlet artifacts however when the gold values settle in those may decrease as well. Anyone with a basic understanding of any economy would know that. Says alot about your understanding of economics lol.... Bottom line is "all" prices will be going down and will only be going up on vendors trying to rip people off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking into consideration that the influx from doom has always been a constant the only difference now is the rate, and that the high end items are not falling 100% of the time could very well indicate a return to higher prices over time.

Yes there will be more artifacts in the game, but take into account duping, there was many more introduced into the game much more rapidly b/c of this, and yet prices still gradually returned to about the rate they were at. Yes in the long run artifact prices should be lower than they were a week ago, but if you follow past trends they should definitley be worth more than they currently are.

As to the effect of the BOS changes, scripters will continue to script gold and resources, and they'll just run theyre script for powder of translocation more often.

and for midiguru, this is a thread for comparison of prices and thoughts about the artifacts, not about me, so keep the personal comparisons or comments to yourself, or as I've invited you to do in the past, express them via other methods.

 

[imported_Cysphruo]

dvi you and your theories...
we're still in the first week of this new change, artifact prices are going to permenantly drop so incredibly low
i would list the reasons but i dont have an hour to spare to state the obvious

 

[Guest]

I agree in the long run they will drop significantly lower than they have been valued at, but I also expect there to be an increase in value over the current prices being seen.

Could I be wrong? Possibly, but I'm basing my theory off of past events which have had similar effects. Sure there are differences and confounding factors which make this unique, but it doesn't mean that you can't have a similar result.

Also lets remember that while UO has real world ties, and that there are effects that exist in both, there are also situations that do not, and UO is ultimately not the real world and you can not always count on the same effect to occur in UO as it might in the real buisness world.

 

[imported_Lariat]

Saw an Orny for 19m in Luna last night on Baja...

 

[viper of flames]

I just seen a orny for sale 15m on atlantic this morning

 

[^Jay^]

great prices love the new doom system!

 

[Guest]

I traded one today for items totaling about 35m, it was priced on my vendor for 18m

 

[Guest]

Sorry but im gonna call u on this one....its not a temporary increased doom drop..its a permant one..prices will be halved within 2 weeks...

 

[Guest]

yes, you're correct on both points. but if you consider that with duping artifacts were introduced into the community much faster than doom currently is, and without ever having to go there. Eventually people will have the items they want and won't feel like its worthwhile to go anymore and the doom drops will begin to slow down bc fewer and fewer people will bother with it.

Ah, well, perhaps they will wind up being generally worthless as Link stated, we shall see.

 

[Lord Urza]

Prices on doom arties, will most def go down in value and continue to as more become abundent, and the people who dont need any more start to get cluttered with them

 

[Lord Kotan]

I wanted to say that a friend got an orny for a crimmy (value 17m)

 

[Lord Kotan]

sucks now that I paid money for artifacts within the last 6 months

 

[Lord Kotan]

<blockquote><hr>

Yes there are more out there now, but if you recall the duping phase of summer '06,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but this is a perma drop increase, not a one time dupe.

 

[^Jay^]

<blockquote><hr>

<blockquote><hr>

Yes there are more out there now, but if you recall the duping phase of summer '06,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but this is a perma drop increase, not a one time dupe.

[/ QUOTE ]

no dupe is a 1 time dupe lol

 

[Sorcon Gartius]

As it stands now, just sitting at the bank I've noticed this:

HoM &amp; Spirit of the Totem now down to about 7 mil on Legends. Orny down to 10.

Tons of them....Everywhere. There's currently several people offering Orny+HOM or 2 HOM or 2 Spirit of the Totem for Crimson... Seems everyone is trying to trade into Crimson's since that appears to be the "rarest" of the new items...

heck...I think a pair of Inquisitors is worth like 5-6 Ornys at this point.

 

[GragusMortal]

Yeah I bought an Orny on GL today for 15 mil. It may drop down alittle more but I believe it will settle between 10-15 mil for a while. I will post my reasoning.

A point to take to heart. Dupes were only known by select few people. Yes initially they did bring greater influx to the economy but were dwindled as dupers were banned/processes where changed. This time however the rate is constant and the time limit infinate. It is also known by every player on every shard that you are able to obtain said artifacts in a very timely manner.

Now, the reason I say prices will level off at medium where they are now is human nature. Every person in this game wants wealth and will do an all nighter or five to accomplish it. Eventually though, they will grow tired of the tedium and move on to something new. There will still be those few that will stay in doom and grind away but the activity will level off and prices will hit a stand still. Until there comes a time where supply&lt;demand and prices start to raise again. Then we will see the same "Gold Rush" effect as we are now.

So will doom prices ever go back up? Sure.
Will they ever be back to what they were? No, probably not even half.
Will the market be overflowing with artifacts? For some time, yes.
Should I sell now or wait it out?
This is an interesting question though. Currently we are witnessing a Panic effect on an economy that is afraid of change. People that are selling now are slashing prices to sell their items before the "Artifact Doomsday" and are in essence causing their worst fears to come true. While it could be a risk to hold out you could see a profit in the rebound effect of this cycle.

Is this speculation?Yes.
Could I be wrong? Most definately.
Will I be selling all my arties at cutthroat prices? Not so much.
Am I suggesting everyone do this? Never. I would suggest you do what your instincts tell you to do. Resarch the facts and previous history of the economy and make an educated descision. Or heck, just sell em and make some gold to buy better stuff. In the end be happy

 

[Guest]

Seems with all the recent artifact and crafting changes, the devs are attempting to make it easier for everyone to obtain high end gear.

... Which is good ...

But just silly in a gear driven economy/game. You always need those with really nice gear and really horrid gear; otherwise, what's the point of even having items play an important role in the game? Unless, of course, the devs are trying to make the game less item dependent. In which case, why bother releasing AoS and any expansion thereafter?

Sigh...

In a sense, the end result is the median of how good an individual is equipped will raise, but this causes another problem that's been prevalent ever since AoS was released. Once the average player does become better equipped, it throws the game balance off the charts, and the devs will have to rebalance all aspects of the game, which leaves it to cycle all over again. This also presents a huge, HUGE problem for attracting new players, because an absolute new player starts the game at a ground zero exponentially lower than what even the bottom end of equipment is.

Coming back on topic, I agree that artifact prices will go up slightly. Since it's release, UO's economy has been driven my panic, but it's always stabled out after the initial panic rush is over. I'm willing to bet that the majority of artifacts being sold right now are just items people have stockpiled and were too lazy to sell before or who were saving them just "in case," but are now in a mad rush to sell them for fear that prices will drop even further. Then again, this new spawning system is, in essence, guaranteeing you'll receive an artifact after X amount of time, whereas the old system was pure chance all the way through. UO's economy was never intended to handle a constant influx of items without any way of losing them, because UO never planned on the release of Trammel or AoS. So far, as long as gold influx and inflation is kept at a consistent rate with item influx, items will continue to retain their value. The worry now is if item influx (particularly highly desired items) overruns gold influx, then these items will lose their value, people will end up having more gold, and other items will raise in value. Supply/demand and economics in gaming environments is fickle at best, and no real world application is sufficient in predicting anything since everything in the real world is finite. It's impossible to say at this rate what will happen, so let's all just not worry about it and keep playing the game.