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[Tailoring] Putting Wilki's numbers into perspective...



Ok, I wanted to make sure what I was about to contradict :)

Here is a summary of how a specific BOD is chosen, for a GM or above tailor.

1. Choose the quantity needed (10, 15, 20) randomly

2. 33% chance to be exceptional

3. 92% chance to be small, 8% chance to be large

4. Randomly choose from among all available types. Should be 55 types for smalls, 14 for larges. Notice there is no distinction made between cloth or leather at this point other than how many are in the list of each.

5. If the type from step 3 is leather, then it has a 70% chance to be colored leather.

6. If if is colored leather, the chance for each color is:
60% spined
30% horned
10% barbed

That's the order in which each attribute of the BOD is chosen, so you can derive the percentage to get any one specific BOD from there.

I don't know why the exceptional bonus differs compared to what was stated years ago, but it's been the same since as far back as early 2004. If I had to guess, I'd say that it was originally intended it to be that, but it was changed based on testing or feedback at the time.


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We finally got an answer on the Tailor BODs. It seems that sometime between 2002 and 2004 (2004 is as far back as Wilki can trace) they changed the numbers.

But, not only did they not document the changes for the users, but some references still kept referring people back to Hanse's old post from just prior to the introduction of the BODs. A thorough search (I actually read through ALL of the old patch notes on uo.com, before the site was given its uoherald.com makeover, looking for clues) yielded only the 2002 information that the system would be virtually identical to Smith BODs. None of the comments I remember from 2003-2004 from devs seemed to indicate the changes were ever made public. Theoretically, Publish 19 would have been the most likely change point, if the changes were not made prior to the system's 2002 release.

The following should put the BOD division into perspective (note that, in exchanging messages with Wilki, it's technically 1 chance in 3 (1/3), NOT 33.0%, for Exceptional Chance.

Note that Multiplying by 1/3 is the same as dividing by 3 if the fractions scares you.

The "Count" of the BODs is an even 1/3 split, and actually occurs before the other checks.

The chance of a specific category of small BOD (say leather sleeves), is 92% * 1/55. It has a 1/3 chance of being exceptional, and since it's a leather type, 30% of being leather, 42% chance (60%*70%) of being Spined, 21% chance (30%*70%) of being horned, and a 7% chance (10% * 70%) of being Barbed.

So a Barbed Leather Sleeves EX 10-count would be =

1/3 (count) * 1/3 (ex) * 92% (small) * 1/55 (# of small BODs, all equal chance) * 70% (colored) * 10% (barbed), OR....


Bumped up a notch...
The chance of any single part of that specific 6-part large would be 0.07806%
The chance of ANY small barbed Ex 6-part male small is 0.23418%
The chance of ANY small barbed Ex 6-part, for either 6-part large, is 0.46836%
The chance of ANY small barbed 6-part, regardless of Quality, is 1.40509%

Still seems a heck of a lot more common than Valorite, doesn't it???