mag single ticket totals

[Lorddog]

this number tells you exactly how many accounts are around interested in bidding on houses. i would think most can be attributed to a large gold gain from the win. even still it can tell you how many people are playing the game.

seige - 74
atlantic - 783
great lakes - 454
chesapeake - 242
catskills - 241
pacific - 286
baja - 86
napa valley - 107
lake austin - 74
mugen - 109
europa - 229
oceania - 47
wakoku - 309
yamato - 641

fell free to add any shard - just need the 1 number of single plot

drachenfels - 106
Sonoma - 168

 

[Macrophage999]

From those numbers I guestimate there are around 35K accounts left.

 

[Woodsman]

I've bought tickets to plots on three of the shards mentioned on all three of my accounts. 100% of my accounts are interested in plots on those shards.

 

[LoL/Sonoma]

From those numbers I guestimate there are around 35K accounts left.

Why do people insist on trying to "estimate" things without sufficient information?

There is no way having the above numbers tells you enough to make any kind of educated guess on anything, other than the number of people on a shard who know about the lottery (if you dont read the forums would you know?) and are interested in a Magencia house (i know a couple people on Sonoma who havent bothered to try for one).

 

[Lorddog]

when you boot up the interface it tells you about the plots.

i would average out the 3-4 popular shards as people buy extra on them.
so we have an average of 200-300 / shard
suppose we have only 50% of playing accounts bidding that means 500 or so people actively playing on each shard.

probably pretty close estimate I would say.

 

[Macrophage999]

I never pretended to make an "educated" guess. Just a guess. I doubt your figures of 1/3 of the bought plots = 50% of the active accounts; for the 50% part at least.
Most active accounts are not actively played, casual players probably don't know about that event. Most players are not actually interested in putting a house there, but have bought a ticket in pure speculation. We don't have a grip on how much those houses are going to resell, so it's hard to know if it's worth bothering buying a ticket for all plots, or even one plot. (so, we don't know if the numbers of each plots are to be added or not). I personnally own 3 accounts and didn't buy a ticket yet. I know that noone from my guild has bought one either. (That's around 16 active accounts, out of 40 accounts payed but not active). I'd personnally think we'd be closer to 10% of the paid accounts who bought a ticket.
Moreover I don't have any kind of money on other servers so I wouldn't be able to buy a ticket there (unless the new characters nowadays hold over 10K which is information i don't have).

 

[NB-Cats]

I don't see it as a bad estimate to use the 10k plot ticket numbers to take a good jab at the UO population.

Some players have multiple accounts, some players don't know about it and some players just aren't interested in them.

However, after seeing the above numbers, it definitely gives us an idea of how small the game is now.

 

[Zandros]

drachenfels - 106

 

[Parnoc]

Sonoma - 168

 

[THP]

I think the data can be used to estimate population....

take atlantic with 625 single tickets sold ...so half that for xsharders!!!! at least half!!! so we at 300 odd....if a 1/10th of atlantic players bought a ticket and iam sure more than that have then the population of the largest shard is only gonna be 3000 odd.... if a 1/5th bought tickets then only 1500.

take europa with 182 single tickets sold ...so half that for xsharders!!!! at least half!!! so we at 90....if a 1/10th of europa players bought a ticket and iam sure more than that have then the population of a middle shard is only gonna be 900 odd.....if a 1/5th bought tickets then the population would be only 450....

etc etc

iam feeling these figures really do feel right from my own shards view!!

also the number bought do infact relate to the shards high and lows...atlantic is known to be the busiest and oceania is a known smallest.

 

[LoL/Sonoma]

It just seems silly to try to estimate. We can pull numbers out of our butts all day long and come up with "half for Xsharders" (could it be 3/4?, 1/10?) ... could the number who bought per shard be 1/30? or even 1/100? Probably not, but it is no less silly to make that guess than it is to assume (ass - u - me) that 1/2 or 1/5 or 1/10 did.

Basically our numbers could be WILDLY innaccurate since we can't account for event a SMALL number of the variables. All we have in the equation is the number of one-per-account tickets bought. We don't know the number of cross sharders, the number of multi account purchases, the number who chose to ignore the Magencia lotto(due to lack of interest, not being active, not having the funds or plain not knowing).

Also, is the number above the total number of tickets sold on the highest bid property of the one-per-account properties? Is it the same property on each shard?

There is just really no point (other than playing fun "what if" games) of trying to use an optional lottery to GUESS at the number of total accounts.

 

[Kiminality]

I think the data can be used to estimate population....

take atlantic with 625 single tickets sold ...so half that for xsharders!!!! at least half!!! so we at 300 odd....if a 1/10th of atlantic players bought a ticket and iam sure more than that have then the population of the largest shard is only gonna be 3000 odd.... if a 1/5th bought tickets then only 1500.

take europa with 182 single tickets sold ...so half that for xsharders!!!! at least half!!! so we at 90....if a 1/10th of europa players bought a ticket and iam sure more than that have then the population of a middle shard is only gonna be 900 odd.....if a 1/5th bought tickets then the population would be only 450....

etc etc

iam feeling these figures really do feel right from my own shards view!!

also the number bought do infact relate to the shards high and lows...atlantic is known to be the busiest and oceania is a known smallest.

Reposting it in another thread isn't going to make it any less a terrible formula.

You make assumptions based on your singular perspective, which is not only going to lead to inaccuracies when it regards things you don't understand properly, but also completely omits important factors that should be included - little stuff like shard popularity with regards cross shard ticket buying (way more people will cross-shard buy for Atlantic than Drachenfels, for example).

There are two many unknown variables to use the data that can be gathered from the lotteries as a reliable metric for number of accounts.

 

[RavenWinterHawk]

Stop this silly estimating.
It has no basis, no fact.

Just do this.

Base on several factors I estimate the totall number of active accounts is (INSERT GUESS).

Keep in mind the word guess.

Reread it several times and hope it becomes fact orthe DEV FAIRY comes and confirms it.

 

[Frarc]

Too many Speculation.


I did not buy one ticket on Drachenfels or any other person from my guild. Thats atleast a dozen accounts on Drachenfels. Why would we want a New Magincia house, we own all 18 x 18 house that we are happy with.


And i doubt we the only ones.

 

[LoL/Sonoma]

Too many Speculation.


I did not buy one ticket on Drachenfels or any other person from my guild. Thats atleast a dozen accounts on Drachenfels counted. Why would we want a New Magincia house, we own all 18 x 18 house that we are happy with.


And i doubt we the only ones.

Exactly ... using opinion/conjecture as the basis for statistical analysis of data = dumb. You end up tainting the results based on, not only lack of data, but your own opinion of what the data implies.

Just because you want a Magencia house and everyone you know does, doesnt mean that everyone someone else knows does not. There is just no reliable method to know which is the common view.

 

[Vor]

Good point Frarc. I know of at least 15 people who have no interest in the lottery at all.

 

[Woodsman]

Moreover I don't have any kind of money on other servers so I wouldn't be able to buy a ticket there (unless the new characters nowadays hold over 10K which is information i don't have).

If you take your 1000 you can turn it into 10k pretty quick buying and selling bottles to NPCs

But I agree with you for the most part. I can tell you right now that anybody with a decent spot in Luna, or that has a keep or castle is not going to give those up for a house in New Magincia. There are quite a few people right there that these totals cannot take into account.

I am surprised by the Fel numbers on a lot of shards, I thought they'd be lower than what I've seen.

 

[NB-Cats]

Why do people need to give up their castles or keep in order to participate? Can't you sell the ticket?

If you have 1 chance out of 1000 to win a house that could be worth 10 million, why would you not spend the 10k? Of course I'm assuming everyone has 10k to throw on the floor (which I'm fairly sure is a safe assumption...)

Isn't like 10k in UO gold worth like 1 fraction of a cent?

 

[RavenWinterHawk]

Why do people need to give up their castles or keep in order to participate? Can't you sell the ticket?

If you have 1 chance out of 1000 to win a house that could be worth 10 million, why would you not spend the 10k? Of course I'm assuming everyone has 10k to throw on the floor (which I'm fairly sure is a safe assumption...)

Isn't like 10k in UO gold worth like 1 fraction of a cent?

10 million isnt that much and it is a hassle to sell.

I am doing it for as you said but will be tagging 100 million on it. Why not... Lots of people with stupid money or is it stupid people with lots of money?

 

[NB-Cats]

I just picked 10 mil so players wouldn't come back to me regarding my aggressive assumptions.

At the end of the day, for shards as big as Atlantic, I would personally expect the majority of active players to participate in the lottery (majority defined as 50.1% of the active population).

I don't believe I'm out of line in saying I would expect the average player to participate in order to get a shot as a 1 time special plot allotment in a town at the cost of 10k... or 100k if he participates in more then 1 lottery.

I'm not even considering players with multiple accounts (I have 15) or players that participate on more then 1 server. I also won't consider players who still pay for their accounts but barely play.

 

[QueenZen]

I would venture to guess if one of the Siege plots has only 74 puny tickets bought, 4 of those 74, are MINE ! LOL I was fussy which plots I even bothered to buy lotto tickets on both Shards ! I went for the least popular plots I guess, but the ones I LIKE no one seems to really like as much as I do.

And of the 92 feluccan tickets bought on one of those Chesapeake fel plots,
4 of THOSE too, are MINE !

So kinda hard to guesstimate when yeh some folks have more than one active acct. and may be only interested in 1-4 actual plots on just one or two shards only.

Still the numbers do clue us in on how many with perhaps multiple accts. or multiple sharders, are buyin tickets on certain plots, which they feel are far spiffier located, than the few plots, per shard 2 shards only which I liked on New Magincia !

Then again, that one 30k tickets bought on that one trammel Chesapeake plot, I know darn well there no 30k peeps, playin there on Chessie ! If they are 30k in population, they all stealthing [even in Trammel], cuz I sure don't see 30k people playin there.

I just figure they got lots of gp to drop on probably the most popular sought after plot on ALL shards, certain few plots seem the favorites of many players, to be really rakin in all the majority of everyone whom is interested in em and their gp !! I begin to think every one and his or her brother or sister wants plot... SW 1, luckily, NOT ME ! I never win nothing, but with MY LUCK, be that plot I WOULD win, IF I would win, and I don't even want that one.

 

[kelmo]

Oddly enough. I have not bought any. Yet.

 

[QueenZen]

Well get CRACKIN !! Besides you hardly ever MOVE unlike me so go buy some lotto tickets ..WIN ME ONE I WANT !

I can already see the [aftermath chaos] coming on all shards: besides SELLIN plots won... be myriads of posts TRADING SW 1 won for anyone's E 2 won !! LOL

*edits* Besides, you could really move Kelmo's Pub, hard to do I know, but it would be spiffy in the Umbra Hub house if that Siege Umbra Hub house, were the offical Kelmo's hub-pub, OR a new magincia plot house.
Ye pub needs to be around more crowded, publically used and useful, places.

 

[THP]

would be nice just to win!!!

nice to get a ticket to keep that says...winner!!!

pnly 22 tickets per shard so there a collectable rare...lol...like an event item and will be worth more than the actual house is.....

sod the plot.....and sod macincia in all fairness....id use an account just to place it and keep it for 90 days....see how it pans out there..but my guess ghost town.....1/2 plots empty and maybe 2-3 vendor houses living the luna dream

 

[QueenZen]

Would be nice to win, but as the numbers multiply and add up, I keep watching my odds TO actually win dwindle !

Some of us few weirdos just want a home there for a fishin hut !
Nothing fancy, I always wanted/preferred to live on an island.

ONE has always been out cuz seeing snow 24.7/365 days of the year,
just isn't my thing.

I have had homes on Ocllo, Serp. Hold, of course Moonglow, Marble Island, that other island next to Marble, etc. but never Magincia. Bucs Den homes are way too tiny and server lines nightmare but be grand if they ever fixed Bucs Den up to larger plots and killed the serverline mess, I would so BE THERE !

Then it, Magincia, was all destroyed. I kinda like the humbler nothingness, that Magincia or New Magincia is now. I like the new INN and well, as the numbers add up on all the myriads of lotto tickets bought, odds grow slimmer to WIN at all, on either of the two shards, that I DO play upon ! *sigh*

 

[Derium of ls]

Why do people need to give up their castles or keep in order to participate? Can't you sell the ticket?

If you have 1 chance out of 1000 to win a house that could be worth 10 million, why would you not spend the 10k? Of course I'm assuming everyone has 10k to throw on the floor (which I'm fairly sure is a safe assumption...)

Isn't like 10k in UO gold worth like 1 fraction of a cent?

Actually, at 50 cents per mil (the average going rate now) I think 10k gold lands right on being worth one half of a penny.

 

[Woodsman]

I can already see the [aftermath chaos] coming on all shards: besides SELLIN plots won... be myriads of posts TRADING SW 1 won for anyone's E 2 won !! LOL

There have already been a couple of Origin New Magincia plots/tickets show up on vendors on the Lake Superior rares fest that is currently going on. They've already sold - I went back to take a screenshot and they were gone. They were going for a low price - one was I think 20 million or 25 million, but you still have to cough up for a transfer token.

On more populated shards, they'll fetch more money, but everybody knows that once the tickets are given out, that there are only 30 days to place and after that the plot turns into a normal spot that anybody can place on. If prices are too high, they won't sell and the seller risks losing the spot.

 

[HD2300]

If you win a plot on a large shard like Atlantic, it is worth at least 200 million. For a 10k bet that is nothing.

RMTers would be buying tickets on all their accounts on all shards.

So 1/2 the numbers because of players buying on more than 1 shard.

I would estimate that the participation rate would be at least 25% - 50% of active players.

From this you can estimate the current number of Active players.

 

[LoL/Sonoma]

From this you can estimate the current number of Active players.

... No ... you cant. =)

 

[SixUnder]

this number tells you exactly how many accounts are around interested in bidding on houses. i would think most can be attributed to a large gold gain from the win. even still it can tell you how many people are playing the game.

seige - 74
atlantic - 783
great lakes - 454
chesapeake - 242
catskills - 241
pacific - 286
baja - 86
napa valley - 107
lake austin - 74
mugen - 109
europa - 229
oceania - 47
wakoku - 309
yamato - 641

fell free to add any shard - just need the 1 number of single plot

drachenfels - 106
Sonoma - 168

gl is pushing over 500 on some plots now