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There is no formula, and to be honest I'm not sure what the formula is for individual stats, although I'm pretty sure that each stat is "rolled" individually. What I do know is that more good quality pets do spawn than if you took the just the numbers and generated them all straight random (not bell curved).
Based on experience your chances of finding one that good quality is somewhere between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 10000.
In such case, I am no longer surprised that I have seen for a 4.5 rated Greater Dragon a price in excess of 100 millions........
Based on the Animal Lore data I collected and provided, the creatures stats, resists, and skills are all determined independent of one another (except mana always equals the INT score). The ranges are linear.
Your chances of finding a 90%+ pet depend on how many stats, resists, and skills you are considering for good. The less criteria you have, the easier it will be to find one of the caliber you require.
Stayin Alive,
BG
Your chances of finding a 90%+ pet depend on how many stats, resists, and skills you are considering for good. The less criteria you have, the easier it will be to find one of the caliber you require.
Stayin Alive,
BG
Thank you, "linear" was the word I was looking for.
What would be the chances then if the numbers looked for are the 5 resistances plus the HP, the stregth and the Intelligence ?
That is, 8 variables ?
For example, what would be the odds to bump, say, into a Greater Dragon with these stats ?
HP: 997
Str: 653
Int: 582
Resists: 82/87/50/60/74
O
Old Man of UO
Guest
Statistics can calculate the odds for you. You just have to multiply all the individual chances for each stat to get what you want.
For example, the range for Physical resist on a GD is 60 to 85 (assuming the Hunter's Guide is correct). If the minimum you want is 82, your chance for that stat is Four (82, 83, 84, 85) out of 26 (60-85), or 15.39%.
Your next stat is Fire resist, and you want 87 (87, 88, 89, 90) with a range of 26 (65-90). Again that is Four out of 26, or 15.39%.
The chances of getting JUST Physical and Fire resist you want is 15.39% x 15.39% = 2.37%.
Do that for all the stats you want and you have your chances for any creatures.
Now you know how to do it for yourself!
Good Lord, grade 11 and 12 math was a very long time ago...
We'll do a completely random example now.
Resist tend to vary by 15 points for each resist, so we'll assume 15 for everything.
(note, they always vary by 10-25 points, but the average for "desirable" pets is around 15. The numbers won't give exact numbers, but instead an estimate)
You want top 3 in each resist, which is 20% to get one resist that you want.
For all 5 resist types, the odds turn to 0.03% (approximately) or 1 in 3000 (VERY approximately)
Then factor in strength, intelligence and hit points (and dex for things like rune beetles and bake kitsune), and you start running into the 1 in 100,000 range easily for the "perfect" pet.
But that calculation, apart from being an estimate, also relies on some rather big assumptions (such as, do the stats values occur in a linear fashion?).
As for the theoretical dragon you proposed, in the many thousands of dragons I've seen since they were born, I've seen 2 that were that good or better... and they were both previously tamed by other people. None that I've seen come even close to that value.
Resist tend to vary by 15 points for each resist, so we'll assume 15 for everything.
(note, they always vary by 10-25 points, but the average for "desirable" pets is around 15. The numbers won't give exact numbers, but instead an estimate)
You want top 3 in each resist, which is 20% to get one resist that you want.
For all 5 resist types, the odds turn to 0.03% (approximately) or 1 in 3000 (VERY approximately)
Then factor in strength, intelligence and hit points (and dex for things like rune beetles and bake kitsune), and you start running into the 1 in 100,000 range easily for the "perfect" pet.
But that calculation, apart from being an estimate, also relies on some rather big assumptions (such as, do the stats values occur in a linear fashion?).
As for the theoretical dragon you proposed, in the many thousands of dragons I've seen since they were born, I've seen 2 that were that good or better... and they were both previously tamed by other people. None that I've seen come even close to that value.
OMG! While playing solitaire I came up with the perfect solution for this thread and his thread in the UHall Forum “Tamed Pets : How about an insurance for them also ?”
Are you ready? No matter what the stats or color is upon bonding all tameable creatures will be able to be trained up to max stats/resists and if said tameable creature comes in different colors you will be able to pick the color you want as long as they spawn in that color.
This way no one can lose a super pet or a rare colored pet. If for some reason your pet is deleted all you have to do is tame another one and wait till it bonds and go train it to max stats and the color you want.
I know! I know! I just lost all that time training the first pet and all that but training pets is part of the fun of owning them and yes you lost a little time but you get your rare colored super pet back.
UO can we please get this done ASAP!
Are you ready? No matter what the stats or color is upon bonding all tameable creatures will be able to be trained up to max stats/resists and if said tameable creature comes in different colors you will be able to pick the color you want as long as they spawn in that color.
This way no one can lose a super pet or a rare colored pet. If for some reason your pet is deleted all you have to do is tame another one and wait till it bonds and go train it to max stats and the color you want.
I know! I know! I just lost all that time training the first pet and all that but training pets is part of the fun of owning them and yes you lost a little time but you get your rare colored super pet back.
UO can we please get this done ASAP!
O
Old Man of UO
Guest
You are kidding... right? Tell me you are kidding. Pleeeease oh please, tell me this is sarcasm!
LOL I said it was the perfect solution for the OP not the rest of us.
What solution excuse me ??
Perhaps you may have mistaken thread.
This thread is merely and simply about finding whether there is or not a formula or a way to determine the odds of given tameables to spawn.
I cannot see in the opening post for the thread any "suggested solution" of the sort.
By the way, and to remain in argument, I do not think that the odds may be determined by simple statistics determined by the number of variables because in such case, then the hue of pets which is a single variable should show up, regardless what the hue is, more often than it does, even for rare hues.
Perhaps the code is written with weights added to particular hues or particular stats making the odds differ from what they would if normal statistics was applied ?
Just a thought.
Popps, there are sticky threads here which outline what the spawn rates are for specific colours. If you want to find the chances of spawning one colour with perfect stats the figures are there. Then you might also want to account for the fact that other tamers are working the spawns too, so you have no way of really knowing when something will spawn.
Or, just do the laid back Wenchy style of pet selection - write the perfect stats on a bit of paper, turn the spawn over for 30 mins to an hour and take home the best pet you find in that time. Repeat for as many sessions as you are happy to look. Prioritise the stats or resists that pet really needs to have first, ignoring things like stats below 125 or skills under 100 because those are trainable.
I still miss the days when you couldn't tell how super your pet was by loring it, you pretty much went by how much trouble it gave you at the beating down stage lol. All the old tamers likely remember logging in the minute we got proper lore info to see how good our pets were.
Wenchy
Or, just do the laid back Wenchy style of pet selection - write the perfect stats on a bit of paper, turn the spawn over for 30 mins to an hour and take home the best pet you find in that time. Repeat for as many sessions as you are happy to look. Prioritise the stats or resists that pet really needs to have first, ignoring things like stats below 125 or skills under 100 because those are trainable.
I still miss the days when you couldn't tell how super your pet was by loring it, you pretty much went by how much trouble it gave you at the beating down stage lol. All the old tamers likely remember logging in the minute we got proper lore info to see how good our pets were.
Wenchy
O
Old Man of UO
Guest
WHY did you even bother to ask if you already do not believe that you can determine the odds with a formula? You are wrong, you can determine the odds. Other things like the RNG play a factor, but not much in this case. You can add in the odds of finding a 4.5 pet in a rare color just by multiplying the odds of that color spawning.
I would suggest that you take a Statistics class, or advanced math class, then come back here and argue your point once you know something about it. That should help you understand how Statistics can determine the odds over a long run.