B
Baka Gaijin
Guest
I believe the chances for getting the Ancient SOS is roughly 1 in 25. Since i GM'd my fisher, I have pulled up about 70 MIBs, but not one has turned into an ancient. Is there something I don't know about?
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[Fishing] Ancient SOS?
- Thread starter Baka Gaijin
- Start date
- Watchers 0
S
SippyCup
Guest
1 in 25 is a theoretical probability and may have different actual results.
Keep opening them.
Keep opening them.
B
Baka Gaijin
Guest
The second one I pulled up this morning turned white...
thanks for the response though.
thanks for the response though.
J
Jermosh
Guest
I always thought it was 1 in 100. Its about right for my results.
Thats about mine too, but the figures I've seen were the 1 in 25. *shrugs* Stupid RNG.
B
Baka Gaijin
Guest
http://uo.stratics.com/content/skills/fishing.shtml
That is where I got the 1 in 25 from. Maybe that info is a little outdated?
That is where I got the 1 in 25 from. Maybe that info is a little outdated?
Random stats:
At 1-in-25 odds, there is a 5.7% chance that you won't get any ancients in your next 70 straight MiBs.
At 1-in-100 odds, there is a 49.5% chance that you won't get any ancients in your next 70 straight MiBs.
At 1-in-25 odds, there is a 5.7% chance that you won't get any ancients in your next 70 straight MiBs.
At 1-in-100 odds, there is a 49.5% chance that you won't get any ancients in your next 70 straight MiBs.
J
Jermosh
Guest
Ohh look at that, I might have been getting the shaft all this time. Oh well I still like fishing anyways.
Basara
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Do remember that the UO Random number generator is NOT a "fair die", in probability terms. It tends to run in streaks far in excess of what would be expected of truly random chance.
Something that some people do, to try to capitalize on the streakiness, is get all their SOS, and start by opening 10. If they get an ASOS in that first 10, they continue opening for another 10. If no ASOS in the first 10 (or any successive 10), they stop for a day or two. Typically, if you get two ASOS in a short span, you're in the middle of one of those streaks of random numbers - I've seen people getting 5 out of about 10-15 as ASOS with that method. It probably averages out to 1 in 16 to 20 that way, when you attempt to manipulate the streak tendencies, but you can still get 20, 30, 40, 50 or more in a row without an ASOS - you are just slightly more likely to get more than one when you DO get one.
Something that some people do, to try to capitalize on the streakiness, is get all their SOS, and start by opening 10. If they get an ASOS in that first 10, they continue opening for another 10. If no ASOS in the first 10 (or any successive 10), they stop for a day or two. Typically, if you get two ASOS in a short span, you're in the middle of one of those streaks of random numbers - I've seen people getting 5 out of about 10-15 as ASOS with that method. It probably averages out to 1 in 16 to 20 that way, when you attempt to manipulate the streak tendencies, but you can still get 20, 30, 40, 50 or more in a row without an ASOS - you are just slightly more likely to get more than one when you DO get one.
Today I took my Fisher out for the first time in a year. It isn't as bad as it sounds, I took a break from UO for the last 10-11 months before returning recently.
I spent the better part of the day fishing and pulled up 15 mibs. The were Two ASOS in that 15.
Seems to me in the past I have gone through over 30 mibs and not got a single ASOS.
Our RNG is streaky to say the least! But then Random numbers are streaky
I have fished for most of the last 4 days to see how things look over the long haul.....call it curiosity and since I am NOT a cat......
I have pulled up 80 WSOS, and 6 ASOS. I also have about 15 mibs I haven't popped yet.
I also pulled up about 50 lvl 1 maps ( great for tattered wall maps), 20 normal coloured ( green) nets and 6 of varied colours ( including one Blaze) and a ton of pearls (averaging about 10 a day). Many big fish, none over 186, but many 125+
At one point I went three hours without a single serp coming up. I was about to go home to dump my shoes before I went over weight. Finally I pulled up 2 serps in three casts, and could fill their corpses with the shoes.
Let me tell you...that was possibly the longest three hours in UO for me!
lol
I have pulled up 80 WSOS, and 6 ASOS. I also have about 15 mibs I haven't popped yet.
I also pulled up about 50 lvl 1 maps ( great for tattered wall maps), 20 normal coloured ( green) nets and 6 of varied colours ( including one Blaze) and a ton of pearls (averaging about 10 a day). Many big fish, none over 186, but many 125+
At one point I went three hours without a single serp coming up. I was about to go home to dump my shoes before I went over weight. Finally I pulled up 2 serps in three casts, and could fill their corpses with the shoes.
Let me tell you...that was possibly the longest three hours in UO for me!
lol