the random points system is a mess. it puts alot more effort on the buyer to ask around, know how many people were at the event, how fast the boss died, how many were likely not to get looting rights, etc.
ive basically stopped listing the drop numbers because of this. if someones really interested i can usually give an educated guess based off the the event. sometimes its very low. atlantic tends to be high, based off the already 25 standard drop plus average 200players at the event. compared to a small shard with a 20 drop, where the number is likely to be low 20s rather than 40 plus.
in regards to manticores list, the systems been this way for 2 years now. i think everyone is, or should be, educated enough to know that the drop number is just the base number. anything else is up to guessing.
im not sure where the 41 came from, i dont think bennu said this anywhere and might not even know. i assumed the 41 was listed in a post as a hypothetical number. if it is available, some GMs might give out the true numbers but many didnt even give out the drop number when asked in years past before we had the new system.
whats also interesting is that on several occasions now, an "everyone drop" which people tend to think of as high numbers can often be less than a standard 25 drop on a high pop shard.