Some tests with max luck

[hardy-]

OK, after some time investing building a functional luck suit, i did some tests and noted some things:

Actually i'm over max luck:

2320 luck + honor + felucca = 4320? against the 3982(cap)

What i see: every mob now i see a increase in the drop amount of items (if i don't honor and remove some pieces i clary see the amount of items in the body drop, so its working (100% against 50% luck chance)

But the strange part, after killing over 300 of a tough mob (don't will give much details) the "level" of the items look a lot lower in the max luck setup then the "ok luck" setup. With ok luck every 2 mobs i get a greater artifact + item, but with max luck sometimes i need kill 5+ mobs to get a greater artifact+ item.

Its strange since i see the intensity of the items increase too! for example with max luck i pull some items with lrc20 lmc8, without max luck i usually get a lot more of items with lrc15 lmc6, lrc5 lmc8 versions.

But the "tag" name rate seen decrease.

more anyone did this type of tests?

Another example, when i kill mob with "max luck" without honor (so in place of 4300+ goes 3300+) the tag seen be better then the max luck but not all mobs give the loot increase(because its not 100%)


Maybe its just a really bad rng?

 

[ShriNayne]

I noticed similar things long ago.I seemed to get better loot from t-hunts when I forgot to use any extra luck, it's like it worked in reverse, now I just don't bother, it didn't make any real difference.

 

[Tyrath]

I did a test like this a few years back on Tsuki Wolves killed 1000 wolves with Max Luck and 1000 Wolves with 0 Luck. Can't remember the exact numbers but got live 5X more Majors with overall less negatives and higher intensities with luck. Also the gold was pretty much always over 1k per corpse vs more under 1K without luck. What I don't see is much difference in loot in the short run say kill 1-3 with and 1-3 without and the effects of luck don't really show, look at it over a long stretch and it makes a large difference.

 

[DevilsOwn]

always kinda felt like there was a sweet spot for luck, could be just me

 

[Tyrath]

always kinda felt like there was a sweet spot for luck, could be just me

I still firmly believe some characters are just luckier than others. But you are not alone I find I do better with 2100-2200 luck than higher or lower.

 

[Finley Grant]

i think thats not how luck works, from what i briefly remember you only have the possibility to get 1 more mod or 1 mod with higher value, nothing more nothing less.

check uo guide for better description.

 

[Mervyn]

Please can you display your spreadsheet data.

 

[Tyrath]

Please can you display your spreadsheet data.

I can't spread sheet it, I just tossed majors and greaters in bags on the wolf house porch and after 1000 wolves added up the bags numbers. I was not testing for the benefit of all players just my own curiosity.

 

[ryanouno]

fyi I know this post is quite old but I have to comment on this "I still firmly believe some characters are just luckier than others." because too many people are believe that.

Ive killed SOLO around 10 Dread Horns, 30 Grizzles, 50-100 Melisandes and +- 20 Paroxies, etc.. (counting just my current account) and Ive never get Crimson. Ive never even seen it in backpack and the same goes for Grizzle Mare Statue (just 1 albino squirtle) ... Ive been playing from +- 2010 with some breaks but really ive never had Crimson from drop..

This could be considered as unlucky and yes I was pissed off and feeling super super unlucky.. I remember guys farming Meli keys with me were getting crimson drops +- every 20th Meli. So I stopped famring ML Bosses for a about a half year or maybe more.

Then I get bored one day and found my Melisande slayer Composite bow (50 hit fatigue/ 50 hit mana drain) so I went there to kill her. Ive beaten her around 30 times and finally get something worth - Glacial Hair Dye and around 8 hair dyes that were worth at least few K and some other "common" rewards.. (i felt sooo lucky but when I realized how many bosses Ive killed..)

One day I get home and farmed for 2 sets of keys while watching film.. (around 3 weeks ago)
Ive received 2x GLACIAL HAIR DYES in 2 runs in about 30 minutes!!
The chance of getting 1 is so little but getting 2 in 2 runs????? And im pretty sure I havent received any special hair dye between getting those 3 Glacial Hair Dyes so the RNG GOD had to be with me!!....

Quite the same goes for my Event Drops on Europa - Ive never received any drop until a month when i get 3 drops from 3 events running the exact same build and character.

Overall I realized after years that I mostly received drops from bosses when I killed them for the fisrt time ever and since then Ive never get any drop - for example from Corgul, Scalis

Being extremely unlucky or lucky is just based on RNG.. I know sometimes its hard to believe it but Im pretty sure its the way it is.

 

[Basara]

Draconi discovered that there was something wrong with how the RNG seeded, and was working on a more fair replacement when the EA "let's cut costs fairy" hit back in 2009 and he was laid off to be replaced with someone making less.

While basic testing makes the RNG seem "fair", the scale of normal means of testing (taking hundreds of thousands, or millions, of samples) concealed the real problem.

That problem is that while the curve "looked" right, just looking at the aggregate totals and mean didn't show that there were clumps at all points of the curve during the generation process.

To use an example of 100 numbers 0-9, you'd expect the sample to have 9-11 (maybe an outlier 8 or 12) of each digit scattered randomly through the samples.

Instead, what was happening was something like 3453543453 4566554464 2011011022, etc., to where every digit occurred the "right" number of times, but clumps of similar numbers causing strings of similar results. So, despite having a 55% chance of smelting valorite, you'd get 6 consecutive failures in a short time period (a few seconds) far more often than the roughly 1/120 chance of having 6 such failures in a row. However, you also had an equal chance of benefiting in a similar manner at a later date by having a 55% chance of getting colored ore from a vein (instead of iron), and getting the colored ore 9 times out of 10 digs, when you'd normally expect 5-6 colored ore from digging the spot.

And, it can stretch across characters and accounts from one person, though whether it is interacting with the same NPC playing into it, or if the streaking RNG trigger is in your client or even your PC. There should be about a 2% chance of pulling the same type (ignoring count, color and quality) of Smith BOD - yet in the period before "up to 3 BODs at a time" I had six BOD runners (from 3 different accounts) hit the same NPC over a 5 minute period, and get 3-5 BODS of the SAME ITEM TYPE, only differing in count and quality (and material, if an armor/shield/helm type). And it was happening several times a week. OR, getting a stretch of multiple BODs of a low-chance material (which can be a good thing). The change to BOD pulls lessened the pain to an extent, but coming back with 18 BODs, and finding clumps within the 18 pulls, is still common (18 BODs, but 4 of them are for ringmail sleeves and 3 are for broadswords, for example). Though, getting a stretch clump were you get 5 Valorite BODs out of 18 can be really nice (especially for saving money when needing to bribe).

 

[Tyrath]

fyi I know this post is quite old but I have to comment on this "I still firmly believe some characters are just luckier than others." because too many people are believe that.

Ive killed SOLO around 10 Dread Horns, 30 Grizzles, 50-100 Melisandes and +- 20 Paroxies, etc.. (counting just my current account) and Ive never get Crimson. Ive never even seen it in backpack and the same goes for Grizzle Mare Statue (just 1 albino squirtle) ... Ive been playing from +- 2010 with some breaks but really ive never had Crimson from drop..

This could be considered as unlucky and yes I was pissed off and feeling super super unlucky.. I remember guys farming Meli keys with me were getting crimson drops +- every 20th Meli. So I stopped famring ML Bosses for a about a half year or maybe more.

Then I get bored one day and found my Melisande slayer Composite bow (50 hit fatigue/ 50 hit mana drain) so I went there to kill her. Ive beaten her around 30 times and finally get something worth - Glacial Hair Dye and around 8 hair dyes that were worth at least few K and some other "common" rewards.. (i felt sooo lucky but when I realized how many bosses Ive killed..)

One day I get home and farmed for 2 sets of keys while watching film.. (around 3 weeks ago)
Ive received 2x GLACIAL HAIR DYES in 2 runs in about 30 minutes!!
The chance of getting 1 is so little but getting 2 in 2 runs????? And im pretty sure I havent received any special hair dye between getting those 3 Glacial Hair Dyes so the RNG GOD had to be with me!!....

Quite the same goes for my Event Drops on Europa - Ive never received any drop until a month when i get 3 drops from 3 events running the exact same build and character.

Overall I realized after years that I mostly received drops from bosses when I killed them for the fisrt time ever and since then Ive never get any drop - for example from Corgul, Scalis

Being extremely unlucky or lucky is just based on RNG.. I know sometimes its hard to believe it but Im pretty sure its the way it is.

I agree to a point where I diverge though is when I can take two identical characters running identical max luck suits and play a equal amount of hours on each and compare the high end loot. Been observing this on dread pirates the last few weeks. Character A 205 DPs at present 7 semi useless legendary arties. Character B 190 DPs at present. 24 semi useless Legendary, 17 Kind of OK Legendary, 8 good Legendary.

But Character B obviously is naturally luckier than Character A or shall we say the RNG favors him more Since the release I have probably gotten 4 dozen or more Crimmys and since Tangles came into play on the spider about 2 dozen, both seem to go in streaks though with there being 150+ kill dry spells . The only difference between Character A and B is Character B is 200 months old and character A is 133 months old.

Not bad bonus material fer cruising around collecting Cargo to sell fer Tritons. That little skinning knife will fit very well on one of my templates.

 

[Basara]

Plus, an equipped Skinning Knife creates cut leather when used on a leather-bearing corpse like the later Butcher's War Cleaver or Harvester's Blade (but without any bonus materials).

 

[Tyrath]

Plus, an equipped Skinning Knife creates cut leather when used on a leather-bearing corpse like the later Butcher's War Cleaver or Harvester's Blade (but without any bonus materials).

If I remember correctly it works for feathers as well.

 

[Maximus Neximus]

Draconi discovered that there was something wrong with how the RNG seeded, and was working on a more fair replacement when the EA "let's cut costs fairy" hit back in 2009 and he was laid off to be replaced with someone making less.

While basic testing makes the RNG seem "fair", the scale of normal means of testing (taking hundreds of thousands, or millions, of samples) concealed the real problem.

That problem is that while the curve "looked" right, just looking at the aggregate totals and mean didn't show that there were clumps at all points of the curve during the generation process.

To use an example of 100 numbers 0-9, you'd expect the sample to have 9-11 (maybe an outlier 8 or 12) of each digit scattered randomly through the samples.

Instead, what was happening was something like 3453543453 4566554464 2011011022, etc., to where every digit occurred the "right" number of times, but clumps of similar numbers causing strings of similar results. So, despite having a 55% chance of smelting valorite, you'd get 6 consecutive failures in a short time period (a few seconds) far more often than the roughly 1/120 chance of having 6 such failures in a row. However, you also had an equal chance of benefiting in a similar manner at a later date by having a 55% chance of getting colored ore from a vein (instead of iron), and getting the colored ore 9 times out of 10 digs, when you'd normally expect 5-6 colored ore from digging the spot.

And, it can stretch across characters and accounts from one person, though whether it is interacting with the same NPC playing into it, or if the streaking RNG trigger is in your client or even your PC. There should be about a 2% chance of pulling the same type (ignoring count, color and quality) of Smith BOD - yet in the period before "up to 3 BODs at a time" I had six BOD runners (from 3 different accounts) hit the same NPC over a 5 minute period, and get 3-5 BODS of the SAME ITEM TYPE, only differing in count and quality (and material, if an armor/shield/helm type). And it was happening several times a week. OR, getting a stretch of multiple BODs of a low-chance material (which can be a good thing). The change to BOD pulls lessened the pain to an extent, but coming back with 18 BODs, and finding clumps within the 18 pulls, is still common (18 BODs, but 4 of them are for ringmail sleeves and 3 are for broadswords, for example). Though, getting a stretch clump were you get 5 Valorite BODs out of 18 can be really nice (especially for saving money when needing to bribe).

Do you have a link to this? I've been trying for a long time to find it.

I know the thread Random Number Generator Questions where it was discussed. But any chance you have a link to the dev essay?

 

[MalagAste]

I can agree with that as I observe this streaky behavior even in the wheelbarrows giving flowers... I have well over 100 of the flower giving items and when I go through clicking them all one would think that you would get a colored one every few or so but sometimes I can do a whole box of 40 get none then the next box of 26 or so get 4... and then to go further often I see where I get say 4 or 5 of a certain color in that pull... and I say something like today is a white flower day... last week it was the dark orange ... just seems to be very very streaky. Sometimes have even pulled 2 in a row of the same exact color and type.

But for the most part, I'm typically very unlucky in UO.

 

[ryanouno]

I get your point Tyrath and gj for keeping track of that!

I still think its just about RNG.. But to be at least partially sure we will need to have huge amounth of looting data.

I would compare these things to Infinite monkey theorem - there is a chance that even a random number generator will in some time create some sort of patterns or "weird coincidences".
Ive even parried Parox 8 times with JoAT human passive parry skill before i realised that i forgot to get 120 Parrying from soulstone and since I had only 10% chance.. 8 times in row? Thats hardcore..

While item property calculation? For getting a usefull legendaries the chances are so small that we shouldnt be suprised.. im even considering having max LUCK but ofc then the chance will raise from super small to bit more then super small

Im honestly really unlucky also.. Ive never even received any usefull high end legendaries (yes ive been on corguls, scalises, etc).. ofc I have just 140 Luck on suite tho.. (btw im mostly the biggest damager while doing those)

I get what your saying guys and it keeps me thinking that I should have tried for 3rd time when i had the "streak" last time.
Anyway thanks for the insights and ill try to focus on that more.. Some time ago someone told me to create balanced luck build with +- 1150 Luck - Ive heard that this is the "sweet lucky spot" for balancing luck on suite and not sarcifice usefull mods with +- 50% inc chance - that is the same chance +- by uoguide calculator. - so ill start with crafting

Seraphim

 

[Victim of Siege]

My advice is just play the game and have fun. don't obsess over formulas spreadsheets and math in game of fantasy about dragons and knights. if you want all those formulas, go play Math nerds online.

 

[Tyrath]

My advice is just play the game and have fun. don't obsess over formulas spreadsheets and math in game of fantasy about dragons and knights. if you want all those formulas, go play Math nerds online.

Says the guy that sends me a spread sheet of where my houses are LOL

 

[Victim of Siege]

Says the guy that sends me a spread sheet of where my houses are LOL

Hey, somebody has to make sure we know which bag inside of which box, next to which carrots your bag of Orni's is in . . .

 

[Tyrath]

Hey, somebody has to make sure we know which bag inside of which box, next to which carrots your bag of Orni's is in . . .

That was a big help in locating most of the houses. Prodo was easy because I always leave one character in the house owned by the acct. Siege not so easy as 3 of the accts were logged out at the keep and no runes to the houses they owned. Then I Remembered I put the super secret accts houses in the worst places I could find. I will PM you their locations later its bed time now and when I wake up the mechanic better tell me the BIG RED THUNDER CHICKEN is fixed. I am losing around $3500 every week it is in the shop!

 

[Basara]

Do you have a link to this? I've been trying for a long time to find it.

I know the thread Random Number Generator Questions where it was discussed. But any chance you have a link to the dev essay?

Plus, an equipped Skinning Knife creates cut leather when used on a leather-bearing corpse like the later Butcher's War Cleaver or Harvester's Blade (but without any bonus materials).

IIRC, most of the info was not on Stratics, but on Draconi's Facebook page back in 2009. Unlike current devs, he would talk about stuff that wasn't officially in the timeline directly with people that way. He said he couldn't say anything through official channels until he brought the new RNG into the office for testing. That was sometime (IIRC) in July, August or early September of 2009. By the end of September, though, he and about 1/4 of the rest of UO staff had been laid off because EA treats subscription game development like they do stand-alone games, and think that they don't need most of the programmers around more than a couple months after the release date.

 

[grimiz]

the mechanic better tell me the BIG RED THUNDER CHICKEN is fixed. I am losing around $3500 every week it is in the shop!

I'm probably going to regret this, but I'm going to need more info about what this is ...

 

[Maximus Neximus]

IIRC, most of the info was not on Stratics, but on Draconi's Facebook page back in 2009. Unlike current devs, he would talk about stuff that wasn't officially in the timeline directly with people that way.

I remember that as well. I've tried to find his facebook to see if it was still there, but I haven't had any luck. I also tried checking to see if anyone had copied/pasted it elsewhere but haven't found anything.

 

[Pawain]

I'm probably going to regret this, but I'm going to need more info about what this is ...

I guess Tractor. Not a Deere or Case. Unless he names his hay bailer.

 

[Uriah Heep]

By the end of September, though, he and about 1/4 of the rest of UO staff had been laid off because EA treats subscription game development like they do stand-alone games, and think that they don't need most of the programmers around more than a couple months after the release date.

Yeah, since they were good, and we liked em, they had to go.

 

[Tyrath]

I guess Tractor. Not a Deere or Case. Unless he names his hay bailer.

WHich Baler ? The Sm Square Baler is Herbert the Big Round Baler is Gomez

I'm probably going to regret this, but I'm going to need more info about what this is ...

The Big Red Thunder Chicken

He is the 20 year old Not Yer Garden Variety heavily modified to get 27-28MPG HWY with a 12,000 pound kitchen pulled behind him back bone and work horse of the Thunder 5 Ranch Chuck Wagon




Because with Max Luck IRL you get more of this And I really like dead Ben Franklins

 

[MalagAste]

Betting my Jeep could pull that no problem... but sorry can't help you @Tyrath... good luck!

 

[Tyrath]

Betting my Jeep could pull that no problem... but sorry can't help you @Tyrath... good luck!

Hehe A jeep does good to pull itself Unless yer running a 1940s-1970s model.

 

[celticus]

Hehe A jeep does good to pull itself Unless yer running a 1940s-1970s model.

WOW..You beat me Tyrath. My suv-truck is 2004, ab. 15 yrs old, but got 320,000 miles on it, and get 17 mpg. Yours is better. Nice!

 

[Tyrath]

WOW..You beat me Tyrath. My suv-truck is 2004, ab. 15 yrs old, but got 320,000 miles on it, and get 17 mpg. Yours is better. Nice!

A lot of after market mods in that Truck particularly in the Fuel System and transmission LOL biggest mod is a 7 speed Rockwell tranny forced to fit Hit 7th gear on the highway and you idle along at 70mph in the 1000 RPM range (Diesel so Low RPM to start with) Drawback is at low rpm THE AC does not work very well. ALso put a better ratio rear end in it better geared for highway, but still very good low end pulling power. Hard to beat the 5.9LB Cummins 24 valve Diesel Engines.

 

[Lythos-]

I'm not surprised at the profit on the food wagon. I am surprised there's no ribs or fish on the menu. I'm even more surprised to see an older Dodge actual work truck that isn't eaten up with rust. That's a museum exhibit! When I saw thunder chicken I assumed it was a Firebird. I was slightly disappointed.

 

[Lythos-]

always kinda felt like there was a sweet spot for luck, could be just me

That's the conclusion I came up with after some half hearted tests. I felt like luck was scaled to the difficulty of what was being farmed. The sweet spot.

 

[MalagAste]

Hehe A jeep does good to pull itself Unless yer running a 1940s-1970s model.

It's got a V8 Hemi... pretty sure that'd do the job.

 

[Tyrath]

It's got a V8 Hemi... pretty sure that'd do the job.

Engines are not the problem with modern jeeps. It is everything around the engines

 

[Tyrath]

That's the conclusion I came up with after some half hearted tests. I felt like luck was scaled to the difficulty of what was being farmed. The sweet spot.

I think that sweet spot varies from character to character and I often wonder if acct age factors into that equation at all. My older accts just running base luck of the suit fair much better than say a 70-80 month old character in drops and overall loot quality. No real testing on that beyond simple observation.

I'm not surprised at the profit on the food wagon. I am surprised there's no ribs or fish on the menu. I'm even more surprised to see an older Dodge actual work truck that isn't eaten up with rust. That's a museum exhibit! When I saw thunder chicken I assumed it was a Firebird. I was slightly disappointed.

I stock pile ribs from the spring and summer hog processings and go heavy on the ribs in September and October. I have been beating that truck to death for 20 years now and he just keeps taking it. A little rust under the doors but that truck doesn't leave the barn much through the winter. April through October through the Farmers Market and Show season. ANd once per month the rest of the year up to the elevator to withdraw feed from the grain bank. So Red avoids the Salted Roads for the most part and God know they don't salt those goat trailer roads from the farm up to the elevator. The Road COmmissioner has a God put it there and God will take it way approach to snow removal and salt............... Sign on his desk says exactly that LOL.

 

[DevilsOwn]

@Tyrath - the ongoing saga of Big Red..... maybe he just wants out to pasture

and @ryanouno - have a question about this: "Quite the same goes for my Event Drops on Europa - Ive never received any drop until a month when i get 3 drops from 3 events running the exact same build and character."

The drops were consecutive and all on Europa?

 

[Victim of Siege]

@Tyrath - the ongoing saga of Big Red..... maybe he just wants out to pasture

and @ryanouno - have a question about this: "Quite the same goes for my Event Drops on Europa - Ive never received any drop until a month when i get 3 drops from 3 events running the exact same build and character."

The drops were consecutive and all on Europa?

No way, when he tries to retire Big Red, ima sneak up there and steal it to pull my mower trailer. keep it going another 20

 

[Tyrath]

@Tyrath - the ongoing saga of Big Red..... maybe he just wants out to pasture

and @ryanouno - have a question about this: "Quite the same goes for my Event Drops on Europa - Ive never received any drop until a month when i get 3 drops from 3 events running the exact same build and character."

The drops were consecutive and all on Europa?

Red is back home from another day in the shop......... can't believe I didn't notice this when I was digging around in the engine. The mechanic forgot to put the 8" hose back on the engine air intake side when he put the new injector pump on. Red will run 140MPH+ again, I tested it on the the 20 mile trip back to the farm Oh and does not sound like a giant vacuum cleaner hoovering gold up at a champ spawn

 

[Theo_GL]

Draconi discovered that there was something wrong with how the RNG seeded, and was working on a more fair replacement when the EA "let's cut costs fairy" hit back in 2009 and he was laid off to be replaced with someone making less.

While basic testing makes the RNG seem "fair", the scale of normal means of testing (taking hundreds of thousands, or millions, of samples) concealed the real problem.

That problem is that while the curve "looked" right, just looking at the aggregate totals and mean didn't show that there were clumps at all points of the curve during the generation process.

To use an example of 100 numbers 0-9, you'd expect the sample to have 9-11 (maybe an outlier 8 or 12) of each digit scattered randomly through the samples.

Instead, what was happening was something like 3453543453 4566554464 2011011022, etc., to where every digit occurred the "right" number of times, but clumps of similar numbers causing strings of similar results. So, despite having a 55% chance of smelting valorite, you'd get 6 consecutive failures in a short time period (a few seconds) far more often than the roughly 1/120 chance of having 6 such failures in a row. However, you also had an equal chance of benefiting in a similar manner at a later date by having a 55% chance of getting colored ore from a vein (instead of iron), and getting the colored ore 9 times out of 10 digs, when you'd normally expect 5-6 colored ore from digging the spot.

And, it can stretch across characters and accounts from one person, though whether it is interacting with the same NPC playing into it, or if the streaking RNG trigger is in your client or even your PC. There should be about a 2% chance of pulling the same type (ignoring count, color and quality) of Smith BOD - yet in the period before "up to 3 BODs at a time" I had six BOD runners (from 3 different accounts) hit the same NPC over a 5 minute period, and get 3-5 BODS of the SAME ITEM TYPE, only differing in count and quality (and material, if an armor/shield/helm type). And it was happening several times a week. OR, getting a stretch of multiple BODs of a low-chance material (which can be a good thing). The change to BOD pulls lessened the pain to an extent, but coming back with 18 BODs, and finding clumps within the 18 pulls, is still common (18 BODs, but 4 of them are for ringmail sleeves and 3 are for broadswords, for example). Though, getting a stretch clump were you get 5 Valorite BODs out of 18 can be really nice (especially for saving money when needing to bribe).

I firmly believe the RNG is seeded off the tile you are sitting on. I can be imbuing something with a 35% chance of success. I'll fail 10 times in a row. I walk one tile and succeed in the first try. This happens ALL the time. They clearly need to see it off of miliseconds or something that varies at the time you click instead of where you stand.

 

[Theo_GL]

I'm not surprised at the profit on the food wagon. I am surprised there's no ribs or fish on the menu. .

Hard to make money at ribs.

The money maker is pulled pork. 10lb shoulder for $10 and you can make about 25 x $5 Pulled Pork sandwiches out of that or better and you can smoke it ahead of time. Best money maker of all. People love it and its very profitable.

 

[The Doctor]

Seems the RNG favors pulled pork over ribs. Good info

 

[dlo88]

Rng is Weird. A guild mate of mine had 2 crimsons drop on one 1 lady mel. Did not beleive him at first, but he sent a screenshot to prove it lol.