Judgement: Not everyone is, or can be a winner. When everyone wins, the game as a whole loses.
By the same token, when only the same few people ever "win", the game as a whole loses. A few players who are no longer "winning" almost every time don't seem to understand that (and yes, I know it's not all of them). UO is a sandbox, and EVERY playstyle should have a shot. If this was really all about
effort then some of the governors and player event runners should be swimming in EM rares by now, but I haven't seen anyone arguing for that. (Nor should they. Sweet baby Blackthorn, we don't need the governor system to be a source of rares acquisition!)
I did pretty darn well on EM drops before the change. (Apparently my dragon is almost as good as the "20M event character". My actual character ran around in sorcerer's armor for ages until a friend decided I was embarrassing myself in so doing and took pity on me.) It's entirely possible I will get fewer drops now. Oh well. Maybe my friends will get more of them now. Maybe players who never got them before will get them.
Good.
My husband, for example, has only ever received
one EM drop--the virulent rose. He was
thrilled to have gotten it.
I got one too--but I found out that a friend who had helped many people through the static quest that was part of the chain leading to that event (there's that effort thing again) hadn't been able to attend and thus hadn't gotten one. So I gave him mine.
Then another friend found out I'd done that, bought one from someone, and shipped it back to Chesapeake and gave it to me!
The EM events have gotten way too cutthroat with the competition for the special, overpriced drops. That's not how it should be in my opinion, but again, UO is a sandbox and people enjoy the game for different reasons. The way drops are distributed now lets everyone play how they like and still have a chance of "winning" an item. Everyone doesn't win every time... but if they keep attending events eventually they might. GOOD!
I think it would be nice if the EMs surprised us sometimes with item sources--I'd love to see some silly little Blackthorn thing handed out at a Council meeting (which is almost guaranteed to be only attended by people putting
effort into that particular system and into their home shard's community). Or maybe every once in a blue moon a small number of items given out to the first handful of players to complete a static quest. The last time Chesapeake had a static quest, almost everyone just quit at the first NPC. Some completed it later, but I'm pretty sure plenty didn't. Why should hacking on a monster be the only way to get a special item? And why should being good at hacking on monsters be the only thing in a sandbox game worthy of reward?
TL;DR: I voted for "totally random". The "more characters=best chance" seemed deliberately leading, but more characters ALWAYS means a better chance--people were multi-clienting events before as well. I also think some events should be "everyone" drops (but that those events should end in non-recall areas so people can't recall or gate in piles of alt account newbie toons that didn't actually participate).