Question for all the T-hunters

[Uriah Heep]

On three straight adeptly maps today, I failed the first attempt to pick it. Was there some stealth change I knew nothing of? Is anyone else having this? Seriously I haven't failed lvl 3 since GM'ing picking. Was I just incredibly lucky or is something wrong?

 

[MalagAste]

RNG hates you too...... I swear I have a -10000000000 on the RNG rolls with All my accounts.

 

[T-Hunt]

Its the games way of saying, theres just crap for loot in it, don't bother to open.

 

[BeaIank]

Unusual. I will fetch a few level 3 maps and try it to see.
In theory, level 3 chests need 95.1 lockpicking for 100% chance, so you shouldn't be failing to pick that lock.

 

[Uriah Heep]

Unusual. I will fetch a few level 3 maps and try it to see.
In theory, level 3 chests need 95.1 lockpicking for 100% chance, so you shouldn't be failing to pick that lock.

Well ole Forrest Taft did, first pick on three consecutive chests...

 

[BeaIank]

Holy lockpicking failure, Batman!
I had it happen to me in 1 in 6 chests. When it did, the lockpick actually broke.

Edit: And another failure. In both cases, the lockpick broke. This might be related to the problem.

 

[Uriah Heep]

Holy lockpicking failure, Batman!
I had it happen to me in 1 in 6 chests. When it did, the lockpick actually broke.

Edit: And another failure. In both cases, the lockpick broke. This might be related to the problem.

Now that you mention it, the lockpics broke on mine all three times as well...

 

[Warpig Inc]

There is no RNG. Long ago someone sat down with some D&D dice and spent an hour rolling and recording a series of numbers. For chits and giggles the crazy frak put three zeros in a row. We as crafters, warriors and mages in a 99% LRC suit have seen this run of bad luck. There is also in the number string a 101% or higher number. That is why you have those enhancing WTF moments.

 

[The Zog historian]

There is no RNG. Long ago someone sat down with some D&D dice and spent an hour rolling and recording a series of numbers. For chits and giggles the crazy frak put three zeros in a row. We as crafters, warriors and mages in a 99% LRC suit have seen this run of bad luck. There is also in the number string a 101% or higher number. That is why you have those enhancing WTF moments.

From a programming standpoint, there is some type of code called an RNG: it generates a number based on a seed, such that there is no noticeable or predictable pattern.

That said, I don't think it's working correctly. We can't infer anything from the die, however. With a 100-sided die, three of any number in a row is possible, just highly improbable. The odds of an event (in this case the cumulative odds of three separate events occurring in a row) are 1 in 1 million, but it doesn't mean it won't be seen until 1 million rolls, 100,000 rolls or even 1000. It could happen on the first roll.

I notice the poor odds most times I imbue, when I regularly need 10 attempts for a 20% chance of success, and on a lucky day I might get it in just three attempts. Don't get me started on refinements, with the nonsense of "15%" meaning 1 success out of 20. The stated odds are just not what I experience.

 

[Tina Small]

A few years ago (~May 2009), Draconi posted on his personal Facebook page that he was working on an essay about UO's RNG. A thread still exists here on Stratics and one on UOForums where people were posting their RNG-related questions for Draconi to address. I seem to remember that the essay was viewable for a short while on Draconi's Facebook page, but then he made it private and most of us couldn't get to it anymore. However, there still exists a reply that Draconi made in thread on UOForum's to Tancred RedStar's speculation about how a fake randomness (complete with streakiness) may have originally been generated in UO. That thread can be found here: http://www.uoforums.com/topic/25666-uos-random-number-generator/ . Go to the very last post to see Draconi's reply to Tancred's speculation. (The Stratics thread is here: http://stratics.com/community/threads/draconi-working-on-rng-any-questions.142139/ .)

It's too bad that the essay isn't available anymore. I wouldn't mind reading it again and I'm sure it would be of interest to people who weren't actively playing UO and/or staying current with it by reading forum posts at the time.

 

[Petra Fyde]

I haven't used a lockpick to open a chest in ages. I have shed loads of those skeleton keys. I save my lockpicks for Exodus boxes.

 

[The Zog historian]

A few years ago (~May 2009), Draconi posted on his personal Facebook page that he was working on an essay about UO's RNG. A thread still exists here on Stratics and one on UOForums where people were posting their RNG-related questions for Draconi to address. I seem to remember that the essay was viewable for a short while on Draconi's Facebook page, but then he made it private and most of us couldn't get to it anymore. However, there still exists a reply that Draconi made in thread on UOForum's to Tancred RedStar's speculation about how a fake randomness (complete with streakiness) may have originally been generated in UO. That thread can be found here: http://www.uoforums.com/topic/25666-uos-random-number-generator/ . Go to the very last post to see Draconi's reply to Tancred's speculation. (The Stratics thread is here: http://stratics.com/community/threads/draconi-working-on-rng-any-questions.142139/ .)

It's too bad that the essay isn't available anymore. I wouldn't mind reading it again and I'm sure it would be of interest to people who weren't actively playing UO and/or staying current with it by reading forum posts at the time.

As someone who can dream about statistics , I'm the first to defend that there can be streakiness. With an infinitely long string of single digits, there will be a string of one million consecutive 1s (or any other single digit) somewhere. Improbable, but not impossible, and eventual with an infinite supply. However, in my empirical experience, I'm not getting the odds I should be when imbuing and refining. The initial RNG might be good, but I suspect the code afterward has problems.

 

[Uriah Heep]

As someone who can dream about statistics , I'm the first to defend that there can be streakiness. With an infinitely long string of single digits, there will be a string of one million consecutive 1s (or any other single digit) somewhere. Improbable, but not impossible, and eventual with an infinite supply. However, in my empirical experience, I'm not getting the odds I should be when imbuing and refining. The initial RNG might be good, but I suspect the code afterward has problems.

Yeah same here, I understand that everytime the odds are reset, same as it is with lotto. But still it pisses me off, when like lasts week, trying to imbue my last property with a 23something % chance had 13 fails in a row...

 

[Parnoc]

Yeah same here, I understand that everytime the odds are reset, same as it is with lotto. But still it pisses me off, when like lasts week, trying to imbue my last property with a 23something % chance had 13 fails in a row...

That's pretty normal in this day and age and imbue. I never have counted but I could guarantee you at about the same percentage chance I've failed over 20 times in a row. The RNG is broke, Draconi said it, nothing is gonna change. Frustrating but a fact of life I'm afraid. I have failed to make some things in Blacksmithing with 100% make chance, and not just once either.

 

[calibek]

Curious...is the loot updated to match dungeons or is it still randomized AoS crap?

 

[Lorddog]

in Ultima 2 we played the casino and if we lost then we just reloaded our game from a saved.

 

[Uriah Heep]

a few ingredients and regs, the rest of the 90 or so items are left in a bag on the ground...
Nothing less than a lvl 6 is really worth doing anymore, and if you don't get an orb or a pardon you pretty much wasted your time. Everything else is just turn in points

 

[Felonious Monk]

a few ingredients and regs, the rest of the 90 or so items are left in a bag on the ground...
Nothing less than a lvl 6 is really worth doing anymore, and if you don't get an orb or a pardon you pretty much wasted your time. Everything else is just turn in points

I agree. I still find my self being drawn to farm paragons for chests and maps a good part of the time.

 

[BeaIank]

At least on the EC, the inventory is gridded, so I can just pick what is interesting without even looking at the rest of the junk.
I wish they would give the CC users an option for a gridded inventory. It saves a lot of time.

 

[Cupid]

I do tons of maps, er did a lot more before this invasion thing but anywho I have run into streaks like the OP, not on level 2's which I prefer for the speed of getting done but 3's indeed, and gotta love the quick opening level 6 and 7, always hold my breath on them, and what T hunter is not overrun with the looted keys ? The RNG has always been weird.

 

[Doubleplay]

Done upwards of 800 level 6 chests. Of course, you get the gold, 30K and about 5K off of guardians. I loot the mana orbs, pardons, alacrity scrolls, pinks, skeleton keys and essences to keep and sell or use. I turn in the shields, the refinements, and the sashes, for points. The rest of the junk I leave in the chest because it will only total 200 or so points in total and it is too much effort to carry it all back as my backpack will overfill if I loot the lot. I also take a quick peek to see if there are any 100% elemental resist weapons to save. The useless minor artifacts are also turned in for points.
For me the excitement is receiving a level 7 map and ultimately snagging another coffin piece. It is also a pleasure to sell 100 lots of pardons for 100M or more per lot.
More to the point about RNG and lockpicking, on level 6 chests I have taken up to 20 tries to open the chests, have had up to 6 gas explosions on occasion. I average about 2 to 5 attempts to open each chest and have not noticed a recent change in the odds.

 

[Uriah Heep]

At least on the EC, the inventory is gridded, so I can just pick what is interesting without even looking at the rest of the junk.
I wish they would give the CC users an option for a gridded inventory. It saves a lot of time.

Oh we don't haul the useless stuff home...but we do empty it out on the ground just to get the spawn

 

[BeaIank]

Oh we don't haul the useless stuff home...but we do empty it out on the ground just to get the spawn

Eww, not the spawn.
I've had more than enough of it after I open the chest. The less spawn I get, the better.

 

[Uriah Heep]

Haha! the GDs and AWs have fair gold, and good leather!!