Honestly? If UO had came out this year, I probably wouldn't buy it..
I'm keeping an eye on ESO, but not counting on it to be "The Next Big Thing". Sure it comes from a good franchise, and that will carry it, but if there is nothing really that sets it apart from Skyrim as far as quality and mechanics (and I don't mean rehashed mechanics) then I'd rather play Skyrim and not have to listen with all the ******-canoes that typically come with MMO's in the Chat window. I see enough of them in UO, Firefall and SWTOR.