Just to give you the base numbers:
Ignoring that higher color stuff is insanely hard to get prior to bribes:
Before taking color, count and quality into consideration
Tailor has 29 cloth smalls, 9 cloth larges, 26 leather smalls, 5 leather larges
That multiplies out to
174 cloth smalls, 54 cloth larges
624 leather smalls, 120 leather larges
798 total possible smalls, 174 total possible larges.
Now, of these SIXTEEN of the 6-count larges (Spined 20 EX, Horned 10/15/20 EX, Barbed 10/20/30 EX, and Barbed 20 Normal) and TWO 5-count larges (Barbed 5-part 20 EX) automatically give Barbed kit, before even factoring in the 20-25% chance added 5 years back that a type for 1-2 reward types lower could get boosted to Barbed.
18/174 larges, or more than TEN PERCENT of Tailor LBODs, ALWAYS give Barbed kits. That's also 106 out of 798 smalls filling them, or about 13%.
Now, for Smith BODs.
25 Weapon BOD smalls, 5 Weapon Larges (before count and quality)
11 Non-combinable armor/shield smalls (before count, quality or color)
13 Armor BOD smalls, with 3 corresponding larges (before count, quality or color)
After adding in the other factors
150 Weapon BOD smalls, 30 Weapon Larges
594 non-combinable smalls with NO Larges
702 Armor combinables with 162 Larges
Total: 1446 possible smalls, 192 possible Larges
ONE LBOD (with 6 parts) giving Valorite Hammers. (4 prior to Publish 19, but even then 3 of the 4 were only a partial chance of a Valorite, the rest of the time giving Verite; 60% Verite/40% Valorite IIRC). I don't think I should even have to do the math, given that there are almost twice as many smalls, 10% more larges.
Note also that there are TWO Spined LBODs (about the rarity of Shadow or Copper Smith BODs) that Give Barbed Kits, and 6 Horned LBODS (about the rarity of Bronze or Gold BODs) that give Barbed Kits as well.
Anyone that could think that, before bribing and getting new BODs back for ones turned in, that one could buy ~30 Valorite hammers at once and there not be dupes among them is too naive to be let access to the internet, lest they start wiring money to Nigerians or dating fictional females. Not even the legends among the BOD traders ever could amass a third that many over several months, let alone be able to immediately restock vendors EVERY TIME after selling one.
The combined numbers (without bribes, getting a new BOD back for an old one, or beneficial random upgrades of the turn-in rewards), are that the typical crafter that holds on to smalls that go to runic-giving LBOD, should expect several (1-4) Barbed kits per month of intense pulling (getting all 3 BODs per day, especially if from more than one character over 70 Tailor), once their smalls reach numbers where you have 1+ of every Spined and Horned small, and 0-1 of each barbed barbed kit small. For smith BODs, the numbers for Smith Valorite hammers is closer to 0-4 per DECADE, even with multiple BOD pulls, and the old cross-shard trading partnerships rarely lowered it to 1-2 per YEAR.
The chance of a Valorite EX 20 small that actually fits a Valorite Hammer LBOD is 1/2 (weapon/armor) * 1/2 (Exceptional) * 1/3 (20-count) * 1/4 (Plate Armor combinable) * 1/50 (the 2% chance of a Valorite BOD) = 1/2400. This is BEFORE factoring in that smalls are only 92% of BODS. With that, it becomes 1/2600 (ish - actual number is closer to 2608, but trying to keep math simpler). OR... about ONE VAL HAMMER SMALL EVERY 28 MONTHS, per BOD puller, at 3/day EVERY day.
The LBOD chance is 8% (Chance of a large) * 1/2 (W/A)* 1/2 (Ex) * 1/3 (count) *1/3 (chance of an armor LBOD being plate) * 1/50 (metal) = 2/25 * 1/36 * 1/50
The 2 cancels out, reducing the 36 to 18, so Chance = 1 /(25*18*50) = 1/(25*900) = 1/22,500! That is effectively ONE PER 20 YEARS for a single smith!
Even with turning in smalls for new ones, that means going through, on average, 40,000 smalls turned in to get ONE Valorite hammer set, not counting the bonus that was added to get colored BODs. And, that bonus for a 120 Smith would only reduce the number down to about 1/8000 - which is still astronomical, given that it is near-impossible to average as much as 100 BOD turn-ins an hour, once you factor in the time to fill them - and assuming they are all iron (as to be easily fillable)