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[UO Herald] Magincia House Plot Lottery Ticket Sales Analysis
It would be totally wrong to take these figures to mean anything except exactly what they are. I did not buy a single lottery ticket? Why? Because I have no desire to move from the houses I have.
I am far from alone in this.
I am far from alone in this.
L
longshanks
Guest
sure its subject to speculation but it was an interesting take. if you want to say 75% of the player base didnt buy tickets and the number was much less than so be it.
the point that should be taken is uo throws off enough gold on its own that ea will probably keep it around, which is what every crackhead that posts on this board wants anyways.
The idea of bringing player housing into the towns is long overdue. i would propose doing britain next. level the main drag and open it up as well to player housing. Were talking about Britain here and outside of people getting focus and lite faction activity on fel its a ghost town.
as far as debating whether this was enough of a gold sink. well it probably wasnt and uo's economy inflation wise is akin to that of zimbabwes' but hell theres a lot of nicely dressed players across the servers dressed with all the accoutrements. it's not like i see bread lines in skara brae.
the point that should be taken is uo throws off enough gold on its own that ea will probably keep it around, which is what every crackhead that posts on this board wants anyways.
The idea of bringing player housing into the towns is long overdue. i would propose doing britain next. level the main drag and open it up as well to player housing. Were talking about Britain here and outside of people getting focus and lite faction activity on fel its a ghost town.
as far as debating whether this was enough of a gold sink. well it probably wasnt and uo's economy inflation wise is akin to that of zimbabwes' but hell theres a lot of nicely dressed players across the servers dressed with all the accoutrements. it's not like i see bread lines in skara brae.
We can absolutely estimate the minimum possible number of active accounts. Its about 10k.
Beyond that you can do your own estimated weighting based upon your estimates of buy/didn't buy lottery tickets, multiple accounts where only one account purchased tickets, interest/actively level of typical Stratics poster vs. overall game population.
All of these are, of coarse, just as much speculation as they have ever been.
Please note that no actual numbers were harmed in this fun exercise of estimating.
Beyond that you can do your own estimated weighting based upon your estimates of buy/didn't buy lottery tickets, multiple accounts where only one account purchased tickets, interest/actively level of typical Stratics poster vs. overall game population.
All of these are, of coarse, just as much speculation as they have ever been.
Please note that no actual numbers were harmed in this fun exercise of estimating.
O
olduofan
Guest
well those numbers dont have all the lots they admit to missing at least 1 on alt so I would have to say that closer to 49 billion is more of an accurate number. I really felt it would hit at least a trillion tho not that it matters like others have said take at least 15 trillion or to maybe see an impact...
Z
Zarloke
Guest
So if my understanding of this chart is correct I see that 1 person bought 518,948 tickets for a particular plot (C-1). At $2,000 a ticket thats $1,037,896,000! Over a BILLION? Are you kidding me? Ive been around the UO community since the games creation 15 years ago. I tend to return every few years with my last time playing roughly 2005 or 2006. Having a million gp (thats gold pieces for noobs) back then meant you were rich forever. Ive done a lot of research on this and I believe EA really screwed the pooch in attempting to curve UO's inflation because something went drastically wrong as its jumped like 1,000%.
PS: This ticket buyer had slightly over a 46% chance of winning but lost. The winner purchased over 136,000 tickets though.
PS: This ticket buyer had slightly over a 46% chance of winning but lost. The winner purchased over 136,000 tickets though.
That many did this? I didn't think that many people even played this game.
I thought 10 plots were alot too, then I read how little amount of tickets were even bought on shards like Airrang. The guy who won 10 prob bought tickets for the fel side of Airrang or any other low populated shard. In this fashion one could have invested less then 250k on tickets to get 10 plots.
Brief, but probably pointless analysis:
Nearly all of the 6-or-more wins were from low population shards, and from people who bit a lot on Felucca plots.
The Trammel player number and Felucca player number are different (thus, you can be player 6 in Trammel, and 20 in Felucca).
A majority of Felucca plots went to people who bid in the same time frame. (This can be explained by single people with multiple accounts or guilds who all bid big at the same time) i.e. Europa Felucca plots were all won by player 34,35,36 and 37.
Lake Superior Trammel players who bid small lucked out in Trammel.
The numbering likely went like this: all accounts in Felucca get a number, then all accounts in Trammel get a number (so last ticket in Fel = 121, then first ticket in Tram = something higher like 122 or 200). Hence no low player numbers won Trammel plots.
The spread of winners doesn't look (at first glance) like a good random spread. i.e. players 255-293 won all the Trammel plots without buying most of the tickets on Lake Superior. Take out 255 and 293 and the spread drops from 38 to 23. The spread is even tighter on Europa-Trammel. Perhaps with a deeper look, this impression could be explained.
Nearly all of the 6-or-more wins were from low population shards, and from people who bit a lot on Felucca plots.
The Trammel player number and Felucca player number are different (thus, you can be player 6 in Trammel, and 20 in Felucca).
A majority of Felucca plots went to people who bid in the same time frame. (This can be explained by single people with multiple accounts or guilds who all bid big at the same time) i.e. Europa Felucca plots were all won by player 34,35,36 and 37.
Lake Superior Trammel players who bid small lucked out in Trammel.
The numbering likely went like this: all accounts in Felucca get a number, then all accounts in Trammel get a number (so last ticket in Fel = 121, then first ticket in Tram = something higher like 122 or 200). Hence no low player numbers won Trammel plots.
The spread of winners doesn't look (at first glance) like a good random spread. i.e. players 255-293 won all the Trammel plots without buying most of the tickets on Lake Superior. Take out 255 and 293 and the spread drops from 38 to 23. The spread is even tighter on Europa-Trammel. Perhaps with a deeper look, this impression could be explained.
Random is, well, random. Just because it doesn't look it doesn't mean it wasn't random. A true random drawing could still pick one person more than once, such as people winning multiple plots. Guess that's just the problem when you finally see the results something that's suppose to be chance. lol
Of course, it all depends on how many people really entered and how many tickets per person, etc etc.
Of course, it all depends on how many people really entered and how many tickets per person, etc etc.
I think you are misinterpreting the "Player" column in the detailed reports. That column shows a count of the unique user accounts who bought tickets for that plot. That is why the Felucca numbers are lower than the Trammel ones, and why the numbers appear to cluster tightly.
The column should have read "Players" but the s got clipped out during one of the several format conversions that it took to get the source data into the final PDF.
T
Tinsil
Guest
No way did 75% or even 50% of active accounts like people have suggested participated in this lottery.
I'd say it was closer to 30-40%
I'd say it was closer to 30-40%
Please no. On Siege, having player housing in Magincia has already caused enough dissension.
There have been 2 polls, one on this site and one on another site showing an involvement of 63% and 57%. GvP crunched the numbers and if this involvement % is accurate, it puts the active accounts paying each month at ~16,500.
Even at your best case of 30% involvement which is pulled out of the air, the active accounts paying each month is ~32,000. However when TWO polls are at ~60%, imo ~16,500 is the more account number of active accounts paying each month.
F
Fayled Dhreams
Guest
*face palm*
unique user accounts /=/ unique accounts
unique accounts >are likely< LESS than "user"
*tsk!*
put >the REAL< Numbers up(re: regularly paid, monthly paid) and AVOID commenting on the guessing going on ...
bringing some FACTS >will avoid< misinterpreting a simple word math problem discussion ...
yw
W
Woodsman
Guest
If there were only ~16,5000 accounts, you are talking about $2.5 million - $4.0 million a year in revenue with add-ons/boosters/etc, and EA would close it in a heartbeat if it was only pulling in that much money, because there would not be much profit for UO after you factor in just the salaries of the developers.
With that kind of money, with hardware and bandwidth costs plus EA's overhead plus developer salaries and benefits plus facilities, you're only talking about a good 30 developers/artists maximum. With less than 20,000 subs, I don't even think you could get to 30 developers/artists.
UO has declined a lot over the past 5 years and I'm sure that the number of UO subs now is lower than the number of subs in 2009, but I don't think it's dropped to under 20,000. Given how long Stygian Abyss was in development and that it only came out 15 months ago, there is just no way in hell that UO funded such a large team for it unless there was a good 35,000 or more subs. The money is just not there and all of EA's resources have been pouring into Star Wars.
F
Fayled Dhreams
Guest
Actually, the last-best-guess/guideline number we got was from Draconi, and that was a "let's just say around 60k"(approximate recall, direct quote is unnecessary ... but recent and under Draconis nick)
anyways ...
60k is KEY in that @~~ 50k active subs ... EA has no problem dropping a game/server ...
and >my< pegging @ 50k is just that ...
because
Earth and Beyond got notice right around that number ...
MAYBE UO would survive at a lower number of subs ... but
Service Updates
^^they never say why beyond the little preface blurb
Why is it that everytime there is even a whisper with numbers of active accounts everyone goes crazy and toss around percentages? Even more we see people trusting polls from player forums where hardly many people who play the game even register at let alone visit to help them give a "solid" estimate?
F
Fayled Dhreams
Guest
really? just look at it
%
it is soooo ... "trustworthy" looking
and has something or other to do with the mysteries of ...
math
you must believe the MATH ...So the new UO PR meme is that we have 30 developers/artists?
btw Fayled, DoaC is way way less than 50k and Darkfall ~4700 active.
A
AesSedai
Guest
- Aye; and as predicted: reading the fodder's fun too.
It would not take a genious!!!!! to deduct that at least 50% of active account would have bought at least one ticket and at worst 20%
Why do people so try defend the lower that even active player base... Just be gratefull we have still got at least 20k players and better still a max of 50k players.
why cant you nail this in ya thick rimmed skulls once and for all.....its really NOT rocket science is it!!!!
Why do people so try defend the lower that even active player base... Just be gratefull we have still got at least 20k players and better still a max of 50k players.
why cant you nail this in ya thick rimmed skulls once and for all.....its really NOT rocket science is it!!!!
No, clearly it is that the accounts who bought Magincia plot chances are the only active accounts game-wide. Indeed probably those numbers represent about 5 times the currently active player base and simply reflects how many players have more than one account.
You clearly work for EA's publicity machine and should immediately be banned.
In fact I bet you're actually an account shared by Mesanna and Cal.
I'm now going to add this assertion to my website wherein I definitively assert that UO is already dead. It's on the Internet so you can trust it.
-Galen's player
K
Kiminality
Guest
It doesn't take a genious
D) to deduct that, because a genius would know not to just pluck a number out of their arse to fill a core variable.Yes, your spread covers 30% of the possibilities, which decreases the chance you'll be humiliating yourself with your assertions, but your numbers are based on guesswork.
There is no good data from which to derive participation percentages, so whatever numbers you conjure up are basically worthless.
You should be less of a jerk when you're trying to be right, too.
Just sayin'
one player got ten plots ?
highly suspect... do you realize what those odds are ?
highly suspect... do you realize what those odds are ?
Second or third hand I know of a fellow on Great Lakes who had a 1 in 1.3 chance of getting a certain plot, and didn't get it.
For how many years have we complained about the Random Number Generator?
I'd be moderately suspicious if this was the RNG's first-ever issue.
It is not.
-Galen's player
T
Tinsil
Guest
I don't think a stratics poll is a good indicator. The people posting on stratics are much more involved and participative, that doesn't mean others are inactive though.
Kimi u really are the ''troll whisperer''...can u please stop mocking/trolling my every single bloody thread/post...u know what i say rings true....[end]It doesn't take a genious
Yes, your spread covers 30% of the possibilities, which decreases the chance you'll be humiliating yourself with your assertions, but your numbers are based on guesswork.
There is no good data from which to derive participation percentages, so whatever numbers you conjure up are basically worthless.
You should be less of a jerk when you're trying to be right, too.
Just sayin'
Where do you hire qualified people to work on UO for 30k/month? We hire college IT grads for 75k/year and when you add benfits you are talking 100k/head - for college grads.*shakes head*
that sounds/feels "correct" ... merely because you are talking with yourself
and without any actual factual numbers ...
'twill always be so
(your lowball guess) 15 fulltime employees a year(paycheck, no additional benefits)
say ... 30k per on average? (30 / 12mo = 2.5 k a month ...)
30k year X 15 bodies = $450,000 << payroll only(no additional benefits)
*shrugs*
but hey! you were just talking with yaself ...
my apologies for eavesdropping and interjecting ...
mummble on!
Methinks you get paid minimum wage.
K
Kiminality
Guest
I'm pretty sure I haven't mocked/trolled every single post you've made. If I have come out against a large number of your posts, it's because a large number of your posts are full of wrong, or otherwise objectionable.
I'll put it all simple, like.
When you are taking a number that represents a portion of a larger number, then if you know two of those numbers, you can calculate the third.
So, we know the number of active accounts that bought tickets, but we don't know the total number of active accounts, or the percentage of active accounts that bought tickets.
That is one out of three.
By guessing the second to calculate the third, the result of your calculation is going to be no better than a guess.
Your 20-50% is a guess, based off your own observations, unsupported by factual data.
Fact / Guess% != Fact
(Fact divided by a guessed percentage does not equal Fact).
F
Fayled Dhreams
Guest
/Troll fail
I was demonstrating the false assumption of someone elses numbers as >being< too low ...
from your demonstrated fail of context and analysis ...
your momma guilted an uncle to paying you at all and "calling it a job" ...
ie you are overpaid at >any rate< ...
and that :mon frair: is tit for tat
no ... but i use simple common sense.......
common sense = obvious plain in ya face facts.
we can using ''plain common sense''.... assume we have at ''least'' 10k subscribers/users [above numbers]
and really at best....even defying all the different polls that suggest otherwise, and like politics we can use these different polls to use again common sense...if only 20% bought tickets then at the maxiumn best we have 50k subscribers/users.
this is common sense....how the hell u can twist it to be different is beyond comprehension.
Clearly all active accounts bought tickets, and clearly each remaining player in UO owns at least 900 accounts.
-Galen's player
F
Fayled Dhreams
Guest
common sense doesn't mean "knows how to do math"
of which you are indeed a pristine example
Kimi explained it rather succinctly
For any "A" variable number value
you NEED a known "B" variable number value
to extrapolate(figure/cypher) >any other number<
You only have "A" (gp spent in lottery)
You have NO "B" number to go anywhere else
like she said ... you guessed
the principles of math prove THAT ...
^^arguing against Kimi&math
...proves something else entirely ... yw
“Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen.” Albert Einstein