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something like this form one person per shard,,it took me less than 10 mins to add up the 10 plots tickets score then get an averge of the other 12 one ticket plots.
lake austin - random shard i dont play- quick run- 5 days to go
trammel only.........
fixed lotto average is 45 tickets [1 in 45 chance]= 5.4m
vary lotto tickets sold is 23700 = 47.1m
total 52.5m
lake austin - random shard i dont play- quick run- 5 days to go
trammel only.........
fixed lotto average is 45 tickets [1 in 45 chance]= 5.4m
vary lotto tickets sold is 23700 = 47.1m
total 52.5m
Twelve plots are one ticket only, the other ten is unlimited tickets. Check the map here: Magincia Plot Guidelines
Here's an interesting data, the average tickets bought per plot for the north plots in shards (±10%):
(Note: just a reminder, the data can not be used to estimate the population of a shard since too many random factors influence the data like multiple accounts and the number of players participating (or aware of) the event.)
Atlantic - 625, Asuka - 550, Yamato - 543, Great Lakes - 364, Sakura - 339, Hokuto - 338, Mizuho - 255, Wakoku - 251, Lake Superior - 242, Pacific - 236, Izumo - 231, Catskills - 206, Europa - 182, Chesapeake - 176, Sonoma - 106, Drachenfels - 82, Legends - 81, Mugen - 80, Napa Valley - 74, Baja - 69, Siege Perilous - 64, Lake Austin - 55, Formosa - 36, Balhae - 18, Arirang - 15, Oceania - 14
According to this, about 600m is spent on the north plots, in total.
(Note: just a reminder, the data can not be used to estimate the population of a shard since too many random factors influence the data like multiple accounts and the number of players participating (or aware of) the event.)
Atlantic - 625, Asuka - 550, Yamato - 543, Great Lakes - 364, Sakura - 339, Hokuto - 338, Mizuho - 255, Wakoku - 251, Lake Superior - 242, Pacific - 236, Izumo - 231, Catskills - 206, Europa - 182, Chesapeake - 176, Sonoma - 106, Drachenfels - 82, Legends - 81, Mugen - 80, Napa Valley - 74, Baja - 69, Siege Perilous - 64, Lake Austin - 55, Formosa - 36, Balhae - 18, Arirang - 15, Oceania - 14
According to this, about 600m is spent on the north plots, in total.
Atlantic, Trammel only, ~11:39pm EST, 4/5/11
SW-1 = 199,407
SW-2 = 62,370
SW-3 = 127,829
SW-4 = 50,120
SW-5 = 79,897
SE-1 = 167,898
SE-2 = 56,344
SE-3 = 89,259
SE-4 = 333,081
C-1 = 159,309
Average = 132,551.4 x 2,000gp = 265,102,800gp
Total = 1,325,514 x 2,000gp = 2,651,028,000gp
C-2 = 656
C-3 = 658
N-1 = 639
N-2 = 627
N-3 = 642
E-1 = 599
E-2 = 575
E-3 = 533
E-4 = 555
E-5 = 621
E-6 = 645
E-7 = 638
Average = 615.6... x 10,000gp = 6,156,666.6...gp
Total = 7,388 x 10,000gp = 73,880,000gp
Complete Total: 2,724,908,000gp
SW-1 = 199,407
SW-2 = 62,370
SW-3 = 127,829
SW-4 = 50,120
SW-5 = 79,897
SE-1 = 167,898
SE-2 = 56,344
SE-3 = 89,259
SE-4 = 333,081
C-1 = 159,309
Average = 132,551.4 x 2,000gp = 265,102,800gp
Total = 1,325,514 x 2,000gp = 2,651,028,000gp
C-2 = 656
C-3 = 658
N-1 = 639
N-2 = 627
N-3 = 642
E-1 = 599
E-2 = 575
E-3 = 533
E-4 = 555
E-5 = 621
E-6 = 645
E-7 = 638
Average = 615.6... x 10,000gp = 6,156,666.6...gp
Total = 7,388 x 10,000gp = 73,880,000gp
Complete Total: 2,724,908,000gp
I think the data can be used to estimate population....and some bloody common sense........lets use logic ...THP's Formula
take atlantic with 625 kinda ...so half that for xsharders!!!! at least half!!! so we at 312....if a 1/10th of atlantic players bought a ticket and iam sure more than that have then the population of the largest shard is only gonna be 3000 odd....
take europa with 182 kinda ...so half that for xsharders!!!! at least half!!! so we at 91....if a 1/10th of europa players bought a ticket and iam sure more than that have then the population of a middle shard is only gonna be 900 odd.....
etc etc
iam feeling these figures really do feel right from my own shards view!!
also the number bought do infact relate to the shards high and lows...atlantic is known to be the busiest and oceania is a known smallest.
Not alone, we need additional information.
The formula to estimate the average population of a shard during the time the data is taken is:
P = na * fn * fp * fe^-1
na = the average number of tickets bought per a single north plot on a shard (known!)
fn = the fraction of the above accounts that belong to a unique player
fp = the fraction of the above who actually play on the shard they bought a ticket for
fe = the fraction of the players who participated (or aware of) the lottery on that shard
The main assumption is a player who participated the event will buy a ticket for the north plots. While I know na, I dont even have a bad guess for fn, fp and fe; and their values will definately change for each shard. Thus, I concluded that there is not enough data.
We can use the data to compare shard populations at that time by assuming that fn, fp and fe remains somewhat constant, but without knowing the actual populations.
W
Woodsman
Guest
I think more than half are x-sharding.
And I don't think you can extrapolate any populations from those numbers.
I think a lot of people don't care about placing in New Magincia in the long run, simply because they are happy with where they are at or they aren't really playing anymore. A lot of people are entering for the shot at making a bundle of gold with little investment.
You can pretty much assume that everybody close to Luna, and every small keep and castle owner is not going to move to New Magincia and has no interest in a house there. I see small houses in Tram all the time that are within a few screens of spots that could hold a tower or 16x16 or larger (I know, I check them with the tool). If they aren't willing to move up to a large house, then they probably won't go to New Magincia either (I doubt they log in anymore).
On another note, I just saw two winning writs or whatever for Origin plots show up on vendors in the Lake Superior Rares Fest this morning. I guess you could cough up the 20 million or so for a cross-shard token and go place on Origin with those
We can now officially say that houses are being truly x-sharded.
J
jaashua
Guest
Atl and GL numbers are probably overinflated because of X sharding. If you're an Atl player buying a ticket on Baja, you're in for a rude awakening when you can't even get enough gold for your plot to cover a transfer token home.
oh most definate its a xshard fest!!
i just want a winner!!! lol...
i wont move for sure...i may open an old account for 90 days but will not be interested in living there after that
just want to be a winner in the lotto..... thats what its all about!!! winning
maginca will in the main be all ghost towns apart form the big two or three shards, becuase of the xshard and peeps will not pay unless they are on the biggest shards ,,they will just wait for the obvious decay or the ticket expires.
i just want a winner!!! lol...
i wont move for sure...i may open an old account for 90 days but will not be interested in living there after that
just want to be a winner in the lotto..... thats what its all about!!! winning
maginca will in the main be all ghost towns apart form the big two or three shards, becuase of the xshard and peeps will not pay unless they are on the biggest shards ,,they will just wait for the obvious decay or the ticket expires.
Err have never done holiday FREE xsharding?? just need to find peeps with tickets on the same two like shards and u can swop for free...jeeee!!! LOL
HEY????? WHAT??? SO U Honestly think more than 3000 [4000 tops] different people play atlantic soley and more than 1000 [1500 tops] people play europa soley....because i certainly dont!!! please dont be blinkered.....if these shards have this player base we are still doing well...would still mean a good 50k/60k throughout the shards
J
jaashua
Guest
Ugh. Look man, you can have 3,000 active players....that doesn't mean they're going to be on simultaneously.
HOW MANY HOUSES DO U THINK ARE ON EACH SHARD???
remember to at least take a 1/3rd off the total ....maybe half the houses on your shard.... because they will be bugged and have stood there forever...aka the old classic ones...or will be bugged ''come back to brit houses'' thathave never decayed either....
50-60k players would be very very close [end]
Thats right gonk.. thats why when u log in and run around u will prob only see like 60-70 players....jeeeeeee
even most EM events dont attract half that....
[whatever] live the dream that UO still as the magic high recorded 250,000 players...but i can tell u ...it does not ....as much as i love this game ...
K
Kiminality
Guest
Your numbers could be right, I guess... Kind of the blind squirrel thing...
It's your formula that's the problem...
You make assumptions based on your singular perspective, which is not only going to lead to inaccuracies when it regards things you don't understand properly, but also completely omits important factors that should be included - little stuff like shard popularity with regards cross shard ticket buying (way more people will cross-shard buy for Atlantic than Drachenfels, for example).
R
RavenWinterHawk
Guest
I love speculative arguments. None of your numbers are right. You all know that right?
Like you can tell how many players have accounts. Good luck.
Like you can tell how many players have accounts. Good luck.
Europa - April 7th, 2011, 22:30 GMT - 453m (total of Both Facets)
Previous ones:
Europa - April 5th, 2011, 20:30 GMT - 386m (total of Both Facets)
Europa - April 3rd, 2011, 14:30 GMT - ~280m (±1m) (total of Both Facets)
Europa - April 2nd, 2011, 10:30 GMT - ~210m (total of Both Facets)
Previous ones:
Europa - April 5th, 2011, 20:30 GMT - 386m (total of Both Facets)
Europa - April 3rd, 2011, 14:30 GMT - ~280m (±1m) (total of Both Facets)
Europa - April 2nd, 2011, 10:30 GMT - ~210m (total of Both Facets)
wow you can see the future, today is the 7
Sorry, fixed that.wow you can see the future, today is the 7
Ahhh don't be so down on yourself, it's a tough room here. It was a cool idea but like I said the interest is weak overall...forget i started this thread....
i guess like 3-400 people are interested in magincia in the game
....and about 12 people are interested on the boards
whatever....i love uo and i will be here when they push the end button....
Technically speaking, one account can possibly win every single New Magincia plot that there is. Of course, this is provided that you made a bid on every plot and you had an insane, unimaginable, unreal amount of luck.
That being said, housing rules still apply in that you can only have one house per account. So if you have a keep for example, and place a new house in New Magincia, the keep goes into decay mode where it will eventually go IDOC and collapse.
Yeah, well, I'm pretty sure Eyes did?
E
Eyes of Origin
Guest
yea i did... won 3 plots on one account.. but only able to place one house in Mag.
I just did a run thru on 2 shards I did buy tickets upon, Chesapeake and Siege. Current ticket sales ie tickets bought not gp added up/ as of 1300 central time Friday April 8:
SE 1^ 2,999 Felucca ^45,133 Trammel & 5247 Siege
SE 2^ 3,182 Felucca ^23,198 Trammel & 941 Siege
SE 3^ 2,632 Felucca ^ 16,830 Trammel & 846 Siege
SE 4^ 3,395 Felucca ^ 26,709 Trammel & 2695 Siege
-----------
SW 1^ 6344 Felucca ^ 64,998 Trammel & 3,695 Siege
SW 2^ 2,352 Felucca^30,465 Trammel & 1,054 Siege
SW 3^ 3,319 Felucca^26,359 Trammel & 908 Siege
SW 4^ 1,982 Felucca^13,789 Trammel & 976 Siege
SW 5^ 3,100 Felucca^15,840 Trammel & 893 Siege
-----------------------
N 3 ^ 90 Felucca^257 Trammel & 82 Siege
N 2 ^ 91 Felucca^257 Trammel & 72 Siege
N 1 ^ 91 Felucca^259 Trammel & 76 Siege
-----------------
C 1^ 4,926 Felucca^27,020 Trammel & 1017 Siege
C 2^ 91 Felucca^269 Trammel & 84 Siege
C 3^ 93 Felucca^261 Trammel & 76 Siege
---------------------
E 1^ 92 Felucca^260 Trammel & 71 Siege
E 2^ 91 Felucca^256 Trammel & 75 Siege
E 3^ 92 Felucca^256 Trammel & 71 Siege
E 4^ 92 Felucca^253 Trammel & 73 Siege
E 5^ 91 Felucca^260 Trammel & 75 Siege
E 6^ 92 Felucca^271 Trammel & 78 Siege
E 7^ 92 Felucca^271 Trammel & 81 Siege
The above listing talley count is subject to human errors and tired brain,
of me tryin to count lotto tickets,
bought on 1 shard's 2 facets Chesapeake,
and on one shard's one facet, Siege Perilous !
SE 1^ 2,999 Felucca ^45,133 Trammel & 5247 Siege
SE 2^ 3,182 Felucca ^23,198 Trammel & 941 Siege
SE 3^ 2,632 Felucca ^ 16,830 Trammel & 846 Siege
SE 4^ 3,395 Felucca ^ 26,709 Trammel & 2695 Siege
-----------
SW 1^ 6344 Felucca ^ 64,998 Trammel & 3,695 Siege
SW 2^ 2,352 Felucca^30,465 Trammel & 1,054 Siege
SW 3^ 3,319 Felucca^26,359 Trammel & 908 Siege
SW 4^ 1,982 Felucca^13,789 Trammel & 976 Siege
SW 5^ 3,100 Felucca^15,840 Trammel & 893 Siege
-----------------------
N 3 ^ 90 Felucca^257 Trammel & 82 Siege
N 2 ^ 91 Felucca^257 Trammel & 72 Siege
N 1 ^ 91 Felucca^259 Trammel & 76 Siege
-----------------
C 1^ 4,926 Felucca^27,020 Trammel & 1017 Siege
C 2^ 91 Felucca^269 Trammel & 84 Siege
C 3^ 93 Felucca^261 Trammel & 76 Siege
---------------------
E 1^ 92 Felucca^260 Trammel & 71 Siege
E 2^ 91 Felucca^256 Trammel & 75 Siege
E 3^ 92 Felucca^256 Trammel & 71 Siege
E 4^ 92 Felucca^253 Trammel & 73 Siege
E 5^ 91 Felucca^260 Trammel & 75 Siege
E 6^ 92 Felucca^271 Trammel & 78 Siege
E 7^ 92 Felucca^271 Trammel & 81 Siege
The above listing talley count is subject to human errors and tired brain,
of me tryin to count lotto tickets, bought on 1 shard's 2 facets Chesapeake,
and on one shard's one facet, Siege Perilous !
As of 4/10 1:00 am CST, GL's total for Trammel is: 7,050,930,000 gold
EDIT: As of 4/10 1:17 am CST, GL's total for Felucca is: 220,766,000 gold
Total for the shard: 7,271,696,000 gold
EDIT: As of 4/10 1:17 am CST, GL's total for Felucca is: 220,766,000 gold
Total for the shard: 7,271,696,000 gold
Wow...if I spent a billion gold and lost I'd be pissed, hehe.
Eh, what's $1,000?
The scary thing is, TWO houses total over 4 billion just by themselves. Someone with deep pockets has dropped a lotta gold.
W
Woodsman
Guest
That would be the time to brag about something in general chat.
Atlantic Tram only
9,650,142,000 gold spent on 4,769,831 total Tickets.
9.6 Billion in gold!
Wow!
9,650,142,000 gold spent on 4,769,831 total Tickets.
9.6 Billion in gold!
Wow!