If one is filling BODs while crafting, an exceptional bonus WITHOUT a regular bonus is better than one with both, when crafting items for an exceptional BOD.
Testing shows the following:
I. The chance of exceptional is based on the SAME random number roll as the chance to craft.
In other words, if you have a 80% chance to make something, with a 35% chance of exceptional for these numbers, the crafter would be GM+ skill), it breaks down as follows (treating the random number as a result between 0 & 100%):
0-35% Exceptional Item
35-80% Normal Item
80%-100% Failure
This is 35% of the ATTEMPTS being exceptional, which is contrary to the logical thought (and more mathematically sound) that 35% of the 80% would be exceptional.
Logical (but not actual) Expected results:
80% of attempts successful
35% of 80%, or 28% of total attempts, will result in exceptional.
Ratio of exceptional to normal in successful items: 35/65, or slightly better than 1 in 3).
But, the ACTUAL Results are
80% of attempts are successful
35% of attempts are exceptional
45% of all attempts result in normal items
Ratio of exceptional to normal: 35/45, or about
7 in 16 (43.75%, or 20% greater than the expected results).
II. Take the above numbers, and add a talisman.
a. Adding a 20% normal talisman:
This would make the chance to make normally 100%, and would therefore make the ratio of exceptional to normal 35% / 65%.
b. Adding a 20% normal / 20% exceptional talisman:
This would make the ratio 55% exceptional / 45% normal, with 100% success chance.
c. Adding a 20% EXCEPTIONAL ONLY talisman:
This leaves the chance to make at 80%, but raises the chance of exceptional to 55% of attempts. This works out to 68.75% of attempts being Exceptional, and
ONLY 11.25% OF ATTEMPTS being normal!
In other words, about SIX of every SEVEN items made will be exceptional, with less than one in seven being normal.
But, what about the waste of failures, with strategy "c."?
Well, typically, smithing fails average about the same amount of ingots lost that would be lost if one recycles, especially if one doesn't maximize the return with a Salvage Bag and mining over 101.
For TAILORS, you WILL save materials failing 20% of the time, as you won't lose anywhere NEAR half the material on those failures, and you WILL lose half the material on a recycle - or all of it, if crafting bone armor! This strategy is therefore MUCH better for a tailor trying to craft exceptional armor that is less than 100% chance to be made normal, than using a talisman that forces the normal chance closer to 100%.
III. Calculation of Normal & Exceptional Chance (50-point window skills).
a. Normal Chance:
-Starts at 0% at base skill to make an item for Smith items, Quivers (Tailor), Gargoyle Cloth Armor (Tailor), and a few other items.
-Other Tailor items, and most other skills, start at HALF-WAY THROUGH the 50-point window, with an item 50% chance to make, when the ability to make the item is gained at "x" skill. This half-way point also holds true for some of the 40-window skills.
b. Effect of crafting talisman normal bonus:
Only applies if you have an actual chance to make the item. So, if you have to be 50 skill to start making an item, a talsman won't raise your skill to where you can make it.
c. Exceptional Chance:
-Is calculated based on the calculated NORMAL CHANCE only. Any normal bonus talisman bonus is ignored.
-Is calculated based on what the Normal Chance would be without modification, including if the Normal Chance is already past 100.0%. So, an item that is 8.7 skill points past 100.0% for normal chance, while not displaying a chance over 100%, is still treated as 117.4% Normal success chance for the exceptional bonus calculation.
-Is calculated even if it results in a negative number. This has effects that come into play with Exceptional Bonus talismans.
d. Base Exceptional Chance Calculations (50-window skills):
-If the crafting skill is 95.0 or below, the
Exceptional Chance = Normal Chance - 60
-If the crafting skill is 100.0 or higher, the
Exceptional Chance = Normal Chance - 45
-Between 95.0 and 100.0, there is a 0.3% Exceptional Chance Bonus, in addition to the (Normal -60) amount. This is an artifact of the days where there were no skills over 100, and is most felt in the Smith & Tailor skills.
- One way to picture this, is to treat the Normal & Exceptional bonuses as separate calculations (instead intrinsicly linked) that, prior to 95.0 skill, both progress at the same rate of 0.2% gain for every 0.1 additional skill.
- Then, starting with the gain to 95.1, through 100.0, Normal chance gains still continue 0.2% per 0.1 skill, while Exceptional chance gains at an accelerated 0.5% per 0.1 skill, for the duration.
- After 100.0 skill, the Exceptional chance drops back to the original 0.2% to 0.1 ratio, resulting in the 100+ skill calculation above.
e. Effect of an Exceptional Bonus Talisman on the Exceptional Chance:
-Any normal bonus is ignored for calculation of the Exceptional Chance. If a talisman has a 25% Exceptional Chance, the exceptional chance will go up 25%, regardless if the talisman has an 11% (minimum) normal chance bonus, 30% (maximum) normal chance bonus, or no normal bonus at all!
-As long as the crafter is sufficient skill to make the item normally, the chance to make exceptional is calculated, then the bonus is added to the result. This can make a negative number positive.
- Example 1: An item is normally 50% chance to make, below 95 crafting skill. This results in a -10% base exceptional chance, without a talisman.
- Example 2: Take the above item. Any talisman with an exceptional bonus (which have 11% as a minimum intensity) will allow the crafter a minute chance to craft exceptionally. In this example, an 11% Exceptional Bonus Talisman would result in a 1% Exceptional chance, while a +30% Exceptional Talisman would result in a 20% chance of exceptional.
- As noted earlier, this is where the oddball effects of how the exceptional chance is calculated comes into play.
- Example 3.a.: a 30% normal/30% exceptional talisman would make the item 80% chance to make (50%+30%) successfully, and 20% (50%-60%+30%) of attempts (success or fail) will be exceptional. So, 25% of all successes (20%/80% = 1/4) will be exceptional, 75% normal.
- Example 3.b.: a 30% Exceptional ONLY talisman is worn. That makes the success chance remain at 50%, while the exceptional chance is 20%. This means, perversely, that 40% of Successes (20%/50% = 2/5), will be exceptional.
- Example 3.c.: Had the above examples been ran at 60% base normal chance (skill below 95), it would have been 90% chance of success, 1/3 of items made exceptional for 3.a., but 60% success, 1/2 of items made exceptional, for 3.b. - essentually with 50% more exceptional items for crafting with the LOWER normal success chance, comparing each group of 100 successes.
I hope this didn't make your head explode too much....