I had copied this info when it was originally put up. but didnt link it to where/what publish it changed but this is the most recent change.
As posted by Jeremy Dalberg at the uo site regarding the tamer control chances and its current formula.
After reading some feedback in the tamer forum, we realized that going to a straight 50/50 control chance would let people control higher end pets with 120 lore and lower taming, which is not at all what we intended.
So, we've tweaked the overall formula somewhat to this:
Calculations:
1. tamingBonus = difficultyModifier * (taming skill - pet difficulty)
2. loreBonus = difficultyModifier * (taming skill - pet difficulty)
3. skillBonus = (tamingBonus + loreBonus) / 2
Control chance:
Final control chance % = 70 + skillBonus;
Now, the difficultyModifier above depends on the difference between your skill and the pet’s difficulty. Instead of averaging the skills and then applying the modifier to the average as before, the difficulty modifier is now applied independently to each skill and then that result is averaged. This gives us the ability to give more importance to taming than lore, while still requiring you to have a significant investment in both skills to control high level pets. The way that modifiers are picked is as follows:
Difficulty Modifiers:
6 - if (taming/lore skill - pet difficulty) is positive (i.e. if taming/lore skill is greater than the pet's difficulty)
28 - if (taming skill - pet difficulty) is negative (i.e. if your taming is less than the pet's difficulty)
14 - if (lore skill - pet difficulty) is negative (i.e. if your lore is less than the pet's difficulty)
To give you an example for a player with 93 taming and 100 lore trying to control a dragon which has a difficulty of 93.9:
Step 1 – Finding the skill / pet difficulty difference for each skill:
Taming – Pet Difficulty = 93 – 93.9 = -0.9
Lore – Pet Difficulty = 100 – 93.9 = 6.1
Step 2 – Finding the modifiers for both skills
Taming difference is negative, so the taming modifier is 28 (would be 6 if it were positive)
Lore difference is positive, so the Lore modifier is 6 (would have been 14 if it were negative)
Step 3 – Applying the modifiers to each skill bonus
Taming bonus = 28 * -0.9 = -25.2
Lore bonus = 6 * 6.1 = 36.6
Step 4 – Averaging the two bonuses:
skillBonus = (-25.2 + 36.6) / 2 = 5.7
Step 5 – Finding the control chance
Control Chance = 70 + 5.7 = 75.7%
This, of course, assumes that the dragon is at max loyalty. The penalty for loyalty has not changed, however, so I won’t go into detail here about how that works.
What this does is require that you pretty much need to have both taming and lore very close to the pet's difficulty in order to control it. However, there is more room for having slightly lower lore than there is for having less taming. Also, the bonus for having more skill than the pet's difficulty is about where it was before, but again, you can't compensate too much with one skill or the other
as far as I know this one was updated with this formula in mind:
http://www.uocraft.com/taming/pet-control-chance-calculator/