Replica drops are unfair to some and whatnot

[Diggity]

So the champ spawn replicas have been in for almost 3 months. I finally received my first drop in Ilsh after doing too many spawns to count. During the same time, I've received over 40 drops from the Tokuno spawn.

I would say I do Tokuno/Humility/Valor equally. Initially I also did Spirit as well. I try to work as much of the spawn as is available and I'd say there are usually the same numbers of people at each spawn. Whatever I am doing in Tokuno, the drops are much more frequent there.

I don't believe that the amount of spawn damage I am doing is radically different at any of the spawns. Anyone else seeing a great disparity in the replica drops between different spawn areas?

 

[Sweeney]

Maybe everyone who takes part in the spawn should get the same useless item to commemorate it, just like the EM events.

 

[Marcus Blackwell]

Oh gravy here we go again.. First it was EM event items which have no properties what so ever now its Replica's when will this insane complaining about not getting something end. Was Uo this bad before AoS seems everytime a new system and items come out its not long before someone is complaining its unfair and everyone should have chance to get what everyone else has.. I dont see anything wrong with the Replcia and SoT drop system leave..if we keep getting things handed to us in this game where will the challange be?

 

[Black Majick]

No....Pre-AoS UO was not nearly as item based. With a GM Heavy Archer suit on a dexer or a leather suit on a mage and you were okay. Your magic armor was nicer, yes, but easily replaceable if lost. Did not have nearly the gimme attitutude. Then also had a much different playerbase back then as well.

 

[red sky]

LOL, let me guess Diggity, you are doing the spawns by yourself too huh? I'm sure you are not getting any help from other people who may not be as welcome to tell you that they may have received something in their backpack.

 

[goodgimp]

Wow, I haven't seen a Captain Ebolter reference in a long time

 

[Merlin Wallis]

No. This does need to be addressed. It is not about getting something. It is about fairness in the system implemented. People that are doing hundreds of champ spawns and not getting a drop is unfair. I am not one of those but I’ll also tell you what is not fair. Again tonight I saw the same person get the replica drop three times in a row while others are left with nothing. What are the percentages of that happening with a system that is not bugged? Well maybe it can happen but what are the percentages of this happening more than once?
I’ve seen the same person, same character do this over and over. Now here is another thing that is not fair. Three months for a fix to all this madness? Come on developers what is it? Is it lack of funds or lack of manpower or resources? You are going to have to fix these issues and not just the nightsight bug, or recall bug or drop rate. You are going to have to fix the issue that allows some characters on some accounts to be favored more so in the drop equation than others. This same character received some 7 Crimson Cinctures in that candle of love debacle while others with the same effort and time spent, received none. I read where this has situation has happened many, many times in the Gauntlet.
Again, this is not about receiving any item. It is able being able to play the game in a fair fashion for all who participate. It seems to me that that every new event, quest, champ spawn, or game event that has come out since pub 16 has had this affliction attached to it. Where something is broken, something doesn’t work right as it should and thereby allowing a select few to benefit while a majority of others do not. It can be nothing less than the lack of oversight and mismanagement that leads to this type of game system.

 

[Sweeney]

So if I flip a coin 100 times and it only lands on heads, something needs to be fixed? Quit feeling entitled because you tried to get a replica and didn't.

 

[Ravahan]

So if I flip a coin 100 times and it only lands on heads, something needs to be fixed? Quit feeling entitled because you tried to get a replica and didn't.

I think we all know by now that the UO RNG is buggy. Also, the odds of you flipping a coin 100 times and it only landing on heads are so infinitesimal that doing so would be considered proof that the coin is fixed (a trick coin).

I don't think its unreasonable to remind them that the RNG is buggy and that this makes for unplesant experiences for some. The OP has repeatedly stated that they do, in fact, get drops and this thread is not about them not getting "stuff". They can get stuff just fine in some trammel spawn areas, and not in others, while they know some people who cannot get drops at all.

I'd say that's a problem that needs looking into.

So, I say to you, quit flaming people because you either A) didn't read the entire post/thread or B) Don't care whether or not their concerns are valid since they don't apply to you.

 

[von Beck]

So if I flip a coin 100 times and it only lands on heads, something needs to be fixed?

Yes. Pure 'Random Number Generator' is no way to run a game. :loser:

UO's PvM endgame is player vs. RNG, grinding away at champs, peerless, doom, heartwood, for the chance of a good drop. That's just lazy developers - random numbers are so easy to program but not at all satisfying for players (hence all the so-called whinging on these boards).

The ToT, Doom and 10th Anni Item systems are a somewhat better system. The system could be improved by giving players more feedback about how close they are to getting a drop and making it a little less random. Everything that's currently totally random should be moved to this system, replicas, SoT, Crimsons, Rare Armour set, heartwood quest drops, etc.

I hate playing vs a pure RNG. It would be so much more satisfying to know that after another 5 rounds of doom or another six champ spawns or another 1000 heartwood quests there'll be a reward for all the grind.

It should be balanced so there's no net increase in how many of these items are put into the game. I'm not whinging that I want MORE items, keep the rate the same. Just make it more predictable. Give the player some encouragement that they are progressing towards getting a drop rather than feeling that they are flipping a coin that always lands heads.

 

[Sweeney]

A game without randomness turns into candyland.. oops didn't that use a spinner to randomize the movements? I guess candyland isn't fair either.

You people want to live in a bubble, what happened to adventure? Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't.

Next you'll be wanting a point system on GD stats so you won't have to keep killing them to find a nice one to tame, or a point system on the GGS (isn't it unfair that someone gains after one try and it takes you 45 mins?), or a point system for crafting with runics.

 

[Merlin Wallis]

No you miss the point altogether Sweeney.

 

[Jhym]

Oh not THIS again.

The RNG is generating random numbers. Most of the supposed non-randomness is because they are generating a huge random number and then squashing it to fit into a percentage matrix.

They may be doing it through straight computation (I need a number from 1 to 100, I use a RNG that generates 1-4billion, it may be generating 40 MILLION distinct number that all give me 14 when rounded.)

Or they may be pulling random bits out of the RNG and building numbers from them. Either way, it is random whether you all want to believe it or not.

They've run tests in the past to check it, and the RNG generates randomness just as expected. I believe Hanse did a BOD generator run with a few hundred thousand tests and got a distribution very close to the expected mean for each of the colors.

Stop pretending that the RNG is bugged. The coding that is pulling a roll FROM the RNG -may- be bugged, but that would depend on how they are building their numbers.


As for the OP, it is likely that your chance of a replica is X % (say 5) and the checks you are getting are all over 5%.

EACH check is NOT dependent on the others. THUS, you get a random check each time. Statistically, it is the same exact chance each time -- unless they gradually add to your percentage chance as you go.

The simple answer would be to switch off and go do something else for a while and enjoy the game, not grind to get "something".

Ahhh, but people seem to LIKE grinding for some stupid reason. Perhaps so they can complain bitterly about not getting what they want handed to them in a pretty red box.

 

[RichDC]

Well said!!

Some may consider me a powergamer, i dont, i play for the enjoyment and for the most part i really enjoy the spawns! If i get something i am happy, if i dont im still happy!

I havent got a replica drop now in what seems like ages but i could care less, other people in my group get items and as we mainly champ in fel weve got some nice scrolls and SOT's, recently i have been getting a little tired of champs and have began working a new char...although im gettin bored of that now so itll be back to fel soon!

 

[CatLord]

It is perfect like it is...

 

[Lord Gareth]

Oh gravy here we go again.. First it was EM event items which have no properties what so ever now its Replica's when will this insane complaining about not getting something end. Was Uo this bad before AoS seems everytime a new system and items come out its not long before someone is complaining its unfair and everyone should have chance to get what everyone else has.. I dont see anything wrong with the Replcia and SoT drop system leave..if we keep getting things handed to us in this game where will the challange be?

I agree on the most part. I have been doing them daily over and over and have yet to get anything. I believe that for myself the "Challenge" is not worth it. I gave up with it. Yes you cant expect everything handed to you but this be not worth it.

 

[RichDC]

Then go back to doom, which with these new drops you will find virtually empty!!

Just stop these whining posts and threads, stop trying to ruin something else in the game...you whiners already ruined the EM events...now you want to ruin this?!?

Whats next!?!

 

[Yalp]

took me 112 spawns before I got any kind of drop... yet others have got 10-15 in the same time frame.. if it were TRULY random, then those numbers would not be concentrated toward a select few players. If you are the one getting all those drops.. GOOD for you.. yippee.. yahoo... you got yours.. the game for you is good, the RNG gods have smiled on your toon and blessed you with the bounty of all that is UO. For the casual player, doing 1000 spawns to get that item is not do-able. I'm sure some peeps prefer to rake in the millions selling those excess replicas to those casual gamers who only jump on every weekend or so... but oops.. that would require them to use gold they don't have because they don't farm it 24/7.

hmm.. limited time, tight budget, unfairness in gameplay, multiple choices in on-line gaming available, inability to compete with zerg guilds/leet toons, item based game w/o ability to get items

hmm... a good businessman might look at those in the context of customers + business + profit.

 

[RichDC]

I have had i think 3or4 arty drops since there inception, with the amount of sapwns i wouldnt say that was "raking" in the profit!

As i said...I dont care i enjoy the spawns and as i dont "farm" them i dont expect to get alot.

Its exactly the same drop system as the crimmys but that doesnt seem to get mentioned, i have taken at least 3people on there first EVER 2man runs of certain peerless and they get the crimmy! Am i a lil upset...no im happy that they got something!

Annoys me when people moan because "they got it but i didnt". Please for the love of God...SHUT UP!!!

 

[Diggity]

Oh not THIS again.

The RNG is generating random numbers. Most of the supposed non-randomness is because they are generating a huge random number and then squashing it to fit into a percentage matrix.

They may be doing it through straight computation (I need a number from 1 to 100, I use a RNG that generates 1-4billion, it may be generating 40 MILLION distinct number that all give me 14 when rounded.)

Or they may be pulling random bits out of the RNG and building numbers from them. Either way, it is random whether you all want to believe it or not.

They've run tests in the past to check it, and the RNG generates randomness just as expected. I believe Hanse did a BOD generator run with a few hundred thousand tests and got a distribution very close to the expected mean for each of the colors.

Stop pretending that the RNG is bugged. The coding that is pulling a roll FROM the RNG -may- be bugged, but that would depend on how they are building their numbers.


As for the OP, it is likely that your chance of a replica is X % (say 5) and the checks you are getting are all over 5%.

EACH check is NOT dependent on the others. THUS, you get a random check each time. Statistically, it is the same exact chance each time -- unless they gradually add to your percentage chance as you go.

The simple answer would be to switch off and go do something else for a while and enjoy the game, not grind to get "something".

Ahhh, but people seem to LIKE grinding for some stupid reason. Perhaps so they can complain bitterly about not getting what they want handed to them in a pretty red box.

I probably could have titled and worded my post a little better. I am not complaining about the drop rate. Rather I have gotten 40+ replicas from the Tokuno spawn and only 1 from the 3 Ilsh spawns. So while there is variability in the character I use, how many other people may be there and when I actually arrive at the spawn, it still seems odd that I'd get so many from only 1 spawn type and only 1 from the others.

I suppose it could be just the random number generator, particularly since noone else seems to be experiencing this. It just seems wierd that I can usually get a replica drop by "grinding" Tokuno but not by "playing" in Ilsh.

The other wierd thing about the Ilsh drop I did get, I wasn't even there . Spirit was undead and I was the only one there when it was mummies. I killed a few then went to humility. It was also starting at undead and there were people working it. I joined in and when it was at liches, a shroud popped in my pack. After the Humility spawn was finished, I checked spirit and sure enough the Champ there had been comleted so is's likely my drop was from there.

I realize this do a little damage to the spawn but stay on the same server and you are eligible for a replica will be adjusted in the next publish. But it illustrates that big spawn damage is not required under the current publish to get replicas. So it seems even more strange to me that my distribution of replica drops has been so skewed.

And again, I am only questioning this distribution. From talking with other players at the spawns, I believe the 30% drop rate is working as intended and that is fine with me.

 

[RichDC]

Using your example of how you got your replica...as there is only 1per spawn can you not see how people think the drop is, how did you put it...skewif?

 

[Yalp]

I probably could have titled and worded my post a little better. I am not complaining about the drop rate. Rather I have gotten 40+ replicas from the Tokuno spawn and only 1 from the 3 Ilsh spawns. So while there is variability in the character I use, how many other people may be there and when I actually arrive at the spawn, it still seems odd that I'd get so many from only 1 spawn type and only 1 from the others.

I suppose it could be just the random number generator, particularly since noone else seems to be experiencing this. It just seems wierd that I can usually get a replica drop by "grinding" Tokuno but not by "playing" in Ilsh.

The other wierd thing about the Ilsh drop I did get, I wasn't even there . Spirit was undead and I was the only one there when it was mummies. I killed a few then went to humility. It was also starting at undead and there were people working it. I joined in and when it was at liches, a shroud popped in my pack. After the Humility spawn was finished, I checked spirit and sure enough the Champ there had been comleted so is's likely my drop was from there.

I realize this do a little damage to the spawn but stay on the same server and you are eligible for a replica will be adjusted in the next publish. But it illustrates that big spawn damage is not required under the current publish to get replicas. So it seems even more strange to me that my distribution of replica drops has been so skewed.

And again, I am only questioning this distribution. From talking with other players at the spawns, I believe the 30% drop rate is working as intended and that is fine with me.

It might stand to reason that certain spawns being drop heavy and certain people getting heavy drop rates are 2 symptoms of the same RNG problem?

 

[Diggity]

Using your example of how you got your replica...as there is only 1per spawn can you not see how people think the drop is, how did you put it...skewif?

Based on the replica drop pct explanation in the recent F on F, I did consider that a large group of diabolically clever players could exploit the "work part of the spawn and be eligible for replica with no range check". This group would simply go from spawn to spawn and pick off a minimal amount of 2nd or 3rd tier spawn in an attempt to make the replica eligible list. Currently, as long as they stay on the same server they would greatly increase the number of drops they get IF there are enough of them and IF they do enough damage to dominate the replica eligible list.

But I just don't see evidence that there is that large a group trying to do this in Ilsh. As I mentioned earlier, I am seeing relatively same numbers of people in Tokuno spawns as I do at the Ilsh spawns. I recieve plenty of Tokuno replicas but almost none in Ilsh. I also tend to stick with one spawn to completion and have never noticed any group of people picking off some spawn and then leaving before the champ. I know this does happen in T2a/Fel.

At any rate, looks like the upcoming publish will address some issues with replica drops, so maybe the drop distribution anomalies I am seeing will go away.

 

[Diggity]

It might stand to reason that certain spawns being drop heavy and certain people getting heavy drop rates are 2 symptoms of the same RNG problem?

Always possible. But based on the comments from other players once the champ is down, I believe the 30% drop rate is happening and there is no difference in the drop rate between Tokuno and Ilsh champs. It's just that I personally get drops in Tokuno and almost never in Ilsh.

 

[Farsight]

I suppose it could be just the random number generator, particularly since noone else seems to be experiencing this. It just seems wierd that I can usually get a replica drop by "grinding" Tokuno but not by "playing" in Ilsh.

You aren't the only one.

My statistics:
Spawns done: no idea (best guess approx 200)
Drops received: 7
Drops received from Tokuno spawn: 6
Spawn distribution is about even between Valor, Humility, Spirituality and Tokuno with 3 Merkatus, 2 Twaulo and one Ilhenir.

Now here's where my numbers are screwed up.
From the 6 I've received at the Tokuno spawn, 5 were on my archer (no luck, does use honor for healing) and all 5 of those were the brave knight katana. Three of those were from 3 spawns in a row. The last two I've given away to someone else who did the spawn with me. My tamer received a robe doing that spawn.

But it really doesn't matter to me. I just do it for the fun. Hopefully I earn enough gold at the end of it to pay for insurance.

 

[Sarsmi]

Something to note, while 100-200 seems like a large number of spawns to do, it is in reality a very small sampling and will not adequately reflect what is going on.

Which means that if you have 100 people who have all done 100 spawns, maybe 80 of them will have received replicas within the range of what they should get, then 10 will get over the average amount and 10 under. Those numbers are made up, but they are to illustrate that the 10 people who get a lot of drops above average are not going to be complaining on the boards about it (because if it's a bug, they don't want it fixed, right?)

However the 10 people who are getting RNG hosed (for the time being) are going to be trying to figure out what is wrong, and will be posting on the boards and trying to glean information from wherever they can, so they will be citing the other's who have had no drops etc, which will inflate the appearance of their being an issue.

That is not to say that nothing is wrong, just that not getting a replica drop after doing 200 spawns could easily just be bad RL luck, and it feels better to think that maybe you were the victim of a bug rather than you just wasted god knows how many hours grinding for something you could have spent a fraction of the time grinding gold for just to buy.

*shrugs*

 

[Farsight]

On the other hand, if we notice a quirk in the system and don't report it loudly and to whoever would listen and there actually IS a quirk in the system, then it would never get looked at and would remain in the system.

In the case of strange artifact drops (I have 11 years worth of similar RNG stories just applied to me), I just accept that as part of what UO is. Some people are just luckier at certain times or locations.

I still have fun, and I'll still share my odd RNG stories. They interest me.

 

[Sarsmi]

On the other hand, if we notice a quirk in the system and don't report it loudly and to whoever would listen and there actually IS a quirk in the system, then it would never get looked at and would remain in the system.

In the case of strange artifact drops (I have 11 years worth of similar RNG stories just applied to me), I just accept that as part of what UO is. Some people are just luckier at certain times or locations.

I still have fun, and I'll still share my odd RNG stories. They interest me.

That's true. Report all bugs and issues is all I can say. If they get enough reports that something is screwy then they'll probably look into it, move a decimal point, and viola! things will start to work properly.

I think something similar to that was happening with exceptional bod drops, and wilki ended up fixing it (I think).

 

[Diggity]

That's true. Report all bugs and issues is all I can say. If they get enough reports that something is screwy then they'll probably look into it, move a decimal point, and viola! things will start to work properly.

I think something similar to that was happening with exceptional bod drops, and wilki ended up fixing it (I think).

If I am understanding the replica drop chances correctly, the following table represents drop chances for 1-16 players. 2nd col is pct for top damager, 3rd column is for other players. 4th/5th colums are how many spawns to get the drop if there were no randomness.

Players	Top (%)	Others	#spawns	
1	30.0	na	3.3	
2	16.5	13.5	6.1	7.4
3	12.0	9.0	8.3	11.1
4	9.8	6.8	10.3	14.8
5	8.4	5.4	11.9	18.5
6	7.5	4.5	13.3	22.2
7	6.9	3.9	14.6	25.9
8	6.4	3.4	15.7	29.6
9	6.0	3.0	16.7	33.3
10	5.7	2.7	17.5	37.0
11	5.5	2.5	18.3	40.7
12	5.3	2.3	19.0	44.4
13	5.1	2.1	19.7	48.1
14	4.9	1.9	20.3	51.9
15	4.8	1.8	20.8	55.6
16	4.7	1.7	21.3	59.3

While I agree that 200 or even a couple thousand spawns are not enough to reflect those numbers above, that still does not explain the disparity between the drops we are seeing in Tokuno vs Ilsh.

If I flip a coin in tokuno and get around 50% heads and then flip a coin in Ilsh and get 0% heads, something is wrong even if I've only done 200 coin flips. The most obvious thing is that the coin in Tokuno is not the same as in Ilsh. As I've said, # players at each spawn is relatively the same and my perception is that my relative damage output contribution is not siginificantly different at each location. And even if I am top damager more in Tokuno than in Ilsh, the difference is only about double. Something else has to account for the disparity.

I favor the Ilsh is bugged cause the people on the grassy knoll are getting all the replicas theory. Let us craft tin foil hats and all will be fine soon.