Understanding the CURRENT Bogling Drops???

[DHMagicMan_1]

I'm posting this here instead of the "New Plant Crossing" thread just because this is more about what people are getting in terms of seeds from the boglings and I don't want to confuse people more than they already are in the other thread.

I spent a couple hours tonight harvesting bogling seeds and I identified maybe 100 to 150 or so. I left behind all the PLAINS on the corpses because I wasn't intrested in those so I killed more than that but whatever...

From looking at the drop rates and just guessing about how the randoms are set, I'm assuming that for every Bogling killed here's the code that executes

Create Seed
Pick a color: 25% Plain, Yellow, Blue, Red
Pick a type: 33% Campion, Fern, Cactus (Insert wierdness threat here)
-- If Campion or Fern then (Remove wierdness threat) No Problem
-- If Cactus (Uh Oh) I should be a cactus
What I really am is any one of 16 Plants.. anything but Fern or Campion from the "Legacy Set" of 17 plants leaving 15 or the Flowery Cactus

The reason I think this is the case is that while throwing out TONS of Ferns and Campions, I threw away a lot of random whatevers too, Elephant Ears, Century Plants, Lillies etc but they were not nearly as common as the first two...

Based on the above, if my assumptions are true, what's my probability of getting a Yellow Flowering Cactus seed if I collect 100 seeds?

It's getting late and my math is failing. Oh wait, I did fail math. LOL

 

[Sarsmi]

From your numbers I got just under a .5% chance to get a yellow "cactus" seed. So 1/200 seeds would give that specific seed (or red or blue for that matter). Sounds about right, though I think I was luckier than most with my seed drops, and got 5 in under an hour.

 

[DHMagicMan_1]

Thanks a bunch. I'll do another round of collecting tomorrow. I have two reds and a blue planted in FD now.

 

[Vidma]

Does anyone have a blue cactus seed I can have? I am on Great Lakes. I have had no success in obtaining a blue cactus seed but I have so many fern seeds,lol.

 

[kittykat]

Create Seed
Pick a color: 25% Plain, Yellow, Blue, Red
Pick a type: 33% Campion, Fern, Cactus (Insert wierdness threat here)
-- If Campion or Fern then (Remove wierdness threat) No Problem
-- If Cactus (Uh Oh) I should be a cactus
What I really am is any one of 16 Plants.. anything but Fern or Campion from the "Legacy Set" of 17 plants leaving 15 or the Flowery Cactus

I'm gonna disagree just a little bit with your assessment, although I think you've pretty much covered what I *think* is happening. As you said, when the seed is created, it's picking a 1 in 4 chance on each color (25%). Then it's doing the 1 in 3 chance on type (33%). Again like you said, it's doing campions and ferns correctly but having a hiccup when coming to the tribarrel cactus. What I'm theorizing, is that when it comes to the tribarrel, instead of just being that tribarrel, it's substituting a random seed pick from the list of plants that can be fire red - meaning all 17 plus 1 flowery cactus (this would explain how the flowery cactus even got into the rotation to begin with - if it's working off the fire red list). I don't think you can dismiss the fern or the campion from your equation - so you have a 1 in 20 chance perhaps? (i'm terrible at the actual numbers) per color?
(and to help support that theory - one seed gathering expedition I did where I only collected colored seeds (about 180 total) - roughly 1/3rd were campion, 1/3rd were fern, and 1/3rd were "other", including only 2 or 3 tribarrel and 2-4 being flowery cactus. That third had the random kind of distribution that you would expect if you gathered 60 fire red seeds - with the only unknown being the campions and ferns since it's impossible to tell if it was a campion/fern or a random seed that rolled to a campion or fern).
I think color is the worst part of the equation actually - it seems easy to get the seeds eventually, but much harder to get a particular color. I know I had problems getting a blue cactus (like Vidma has been having) and only ended up with one compared to 4 red and 2 yellow (I don't recall total # of seeds I got, perhaps 300 or 400). I suppose with a large enough sampling one could come out even - but I'd bet that'd have to be in the thousands (um, yay for randomness? lol).

Does anyone have a blue cactus seed I can have? I am on Great Lakes. I have had no success in obtaining a blue cactus seed but I have so many fern seeds,lol.

I don't play GL, but I could take a newbie char and fight boglings if they still spawn in Haven? I'd be happy to farm a pack full of blue seeds but you'd have to do the identifying. If that would be of help to you Vidma, just drop me a PM and I can tackle it on Monday or Tuesday.

 

[Vidma]

Thanks for the offer I appreciate it. I have 2 friends who are helping me right now. I have to constantly grow poppie duest to identify all of these blue seeds and so far no luck. We are going to try for a another week or so.