This article is an attempt to describe the events that happened yesterday. Before I do this though, if you came here with the intent of cutting and pasting parts without reading the article – please skip to the bottom now. There, I will even include an awesome quote for you that will help you with your endeavors.
Observation 1: You are only as good as your source.
In order to present something as news, one must have a credible source. True nowadays, the whispers upon private forums seem to qualify but for front page news – you really need something with credibility. In this case, as Seven and I started to work on that piece, we naturally (or perhaps naively) thought that a Financial Earnings Conference by the parent company and hosted by
NCSoft’s Head of Operations and
Head of Finance and IR might, just might, be a credible source. I mean if you cannot trust the word of the director of operations who is supposed to be in the know and aptly informed before heading into said call, who can you trust? I am not exactly well versed on NCSoft’s internal culture but I am willing to bet my reddit gold that he didn’t get to that position by being a gullible dolt or an accomplished liar. Sure there is always a bit of spin on the hard sells but an overt lie to investors? Which brings me to my second point…
Observation 2: A transcription is worth a thousand comments
Having listened and dissected that audio file myself, I can tell you something that hasn’t been brought up yet in the numerous threads and posts. Who asked the console questions? Well, allow me to shed some light on them. The first investor to ask about the console port was none other than
Samsung Securities. In a rather stern series of questions based on the frustration they had with NCSoft’s lack of console or mobile ports in the previous year. Would you like the actual exchange?
35:22
Samsung Securities
And my second question has to do with your plans with regards to mobile and console game development in the future. For a long time already, you’ve been saying that you would be developing games in those respective platforms but it seems that along the way, you have dropped a couple of ideas or initiatives so could you be more specific about your progress report. For instance by when, how many mobile games you plan to launch for instance. And likewise, what is the progress on the console game side as well.
39:40
NCSoft Director of Operations
And likewise, for the console games when it comes to Guild Wars 2 as we have announced already, we are in the preparation stage and also for other titles we are looking at various other options. But once again, nothing has been finalized yet for me to make specific comments now.
Please note that the representative of Samsung Securities
did not ask directly ask about the GW2 console port but rather the Director of Operations volunteered the information. So if there is no console version being prepared then we are left to believe that that his statement is a mistruth. More on that in a minute.
Here is the second reference to the Guild Wars 2 console port from a representative of
Kim Securities. I am having a harder time nailing this exact firm down though I suspect it may be this
Kim Securities (not exactly a featherweight in the business investment world)…
57:11
Kim Eng Securities
And my second question has to do with your Guild Wars 2 commercialization schedule because earlier we did anticipate the launching of the commercialization of this game within the first half of this year. But in your earlier comments you said ‘within the year’. So does that mean that there is a possibility that it will be further delayed to the second half? And also relatedly, when you launch Guild Wars 2, will you be launching the console version together if not when will you be launching the console version?
60:31
NCSoft
When it comes to Guild Wars 2 and its launching schedule, I mentioned earlier between March and April of this year, we are planning a large scale testing. So depending on the results of this particular test, I believe a more finalized commercialization schedule would be determined. And you asked whether we could launch the console version together but realistically speaking I don’t think it will be likely we will be launching the console version together.
Here is a moment in the call where the true status comes into play. From earlier questions about the commercialization aka launch of the PC version, we now know that it will be in 2012 and while it was hoped to be in the 1st quarter or even half, it looks to be later on this year. And the console game will not be ready at that time so it suffices to say that the console version is still early in development. But again, the Director of Operations speaks directly about the port and so either he is ill informed, lying or telling the truth.
Let’s pause for a moment to mull that last sentence over. I am not sure about any of you but when my creditors or bank asks me a question about something (not once but twice), I must assume that they have a specific interest in the answer. And hopefully, my answer to them will be an honest one because when it comes to matters of money, people take answers seriously. Imagine now that you are on the phone with representative of large securities firms… all of which have invested untold amounts of money in your overall business. Muddling an answer or fudging a date is to be expected sometimes in these moments of pitching but lying about a stated concern by the investors… a product that has to be on its way down the assembly line or be pulled for very very good reasons? Before you use the stereotypical portrayal of businesses lying to their investors, please keep in mind that NCSoft would be hurt immensely if such a lie about a direct question caused them to lose these investors. Spin the time-frame? Sure. Pitch vaporware to Samsung Securities? Really?
Of course, we could use the out that the director of operations for a global gaming company was ill informed on the matter. Maybe he was just winging it. You know had a bad morning with traffic and getting the kids off to school. So he gets into the office and looks at the stack of reports on their biggest upcoming projects and at the moment, biggest expenses and says, “Ah, I can so play this off like a boss.”
That is how you get to that position… right?
Observation 3: Teams That Exist and Have A Purpose
As was brought up after our article, ArenaNet has had a small team working on the console port for the last couple of years. Not sure about you but I am going to take a guess that this team hasn’t been off in Colombia learning how to brew the perfect cup of coffee during this time and nor have they been submitting the whole of their combined salaries to ArenaNet under the guise of “really big tip”. It would appear that their existence and efforts have made their way up the food chain to the guys heading the conference call and I am going to take a wild guess and say this is so they can be prepared for questions from investors. No? OK, then ignore both NCSoft and ArenaNet’s posts about this team existing all together. Clearly, they are working in Area 51 on other matters of consequence.
Observation 4: Inception
If ArenaNet is to be taken at its current “Not news” words, then it would be safe to say that these investors got this whole idea of console ports by reading the press releases from Sony Online Entertainment about DCUO. No, from the dialogue in the call – this is a subject that has been discussed before. Not only that but it was discussed with a sense of expectation and delivery of said goods. A fool and his money are soon parted but securities firms don’t qualify as fools. They have enough money to pay people to find out trends and futures. They may be businessmen and women but to assume they don’t know the current earnings of console games and PC ports to Console games would be foolish. It is arguable that they know as much about their invested product as anyone and far beyond the grasp of any fansite team (us included).
So in summary, what does all the above mean? ArenaNet is saying, “No news” and NCSoft is saying its on its way. We know there is a team out there working on it and that fact in itself confirms the port. But beyond that, you have an established credible source promising powerful investment companies that a console version is coming. So the question is not if but when. Hopefully, by the time that question is answered – we here at GWI will have a team of paparazzi at our beck and call to catch said team celebrating the launch at a private club with Lindsay Lohan. Who says this business can’t be entertaining?
Oh and for those who just skipped to the end, here is the quote that I promised.
“Paranoia, he said, was fundamentally egocentric, and every conspiracy theory served in some way to aggrandize the believer.” Pattern Recognition – William Gibson
