[Discussion] Mods please read!

[Manticore]

Please go to the Archive page and add season 14 thread to the big event items thread. I will finish that season as the remaining shards dispense their items.

Next, move the newly created Season 15 thread up as a sticky.

Thanks

 

[Nexus]

Do believe I've gotten it taken care of for ya.

 

[Manticore]

fantastic. Thank you. And if Smoot doesn't mind you can probably unstick his thread between the 2 threads so it doesn't clutter.

 

[Nexus]

Let me tag him asking.... OH @Smoot... you mind?

 

[Smoot]

@Nexus yes fine to un-sticky

@Manticore i gave your list the once over and it appears these 4 items are the only ones to be missing:

Lake Austin (base drop 15)
Nov 19 - Mysterious Fruit
Dec 9 - Bone Arms Bearing The Insignia Of Traccor The Dark One - 100 requested (less than 100 most likely dropped)

Siege
Full name to be added soon - Golden throne Graphic (3) - i still havent found the name on this
An Ancient and Terrible Crystal Of Unknown Origin ~15



I do also think that in the best interest of collectors, the number presentation should be changed. Its extremely difficult in the random points system. but take for instance the wiki and the season 14 list. numbers like (20) (10) (15) are flat out wrong. the true number is highly subjective to a particular events environment. this may be a good topic for for the community to address.

take atlantic - standard drop is at least 50.
great lakes is 50plus (because of 2 bosses)
napa has seemed to be a steady 50ish.

i think it is time for the changes to the drop numbers to be addressed. best thing i could come up with is seen in my list, a base number, an average number (for shards with unusually high drop numbers like atlc, napa, gl, and then adjust from there for the smaller shards. average numbers for shards with listed (15) drops tend to be around 30. everyone drops clear the points so the next drop is lower numbers (closer to the base drop) lower number of characters at event of course yields less items, keeping the number closer to the base.

i realize this is extremely hard to do and takes alot of guess work. take the snowpiglet. 2 bosses. probably 1/2 of the 200 characters got looting rights on both bosses. plus the base number of 20. theres probably 80ish of those pigs.

anyway its something to think about as i know the numbers in the new system, and any attempt to try to keep track of them is extremely difficult to do.

 

[Manticore]

was there a reason why Mesanna went to this system of item drops in the first place? And also how would you know if a crowded shard is really double than the intended drop count? It could be fewer collectors but more sellers so the appearance seemed a lot more.

I mean let's face it:

1. My educated guess is >70% of all drops are gotten by professional event goers/sellers. I said that loosely since they put in the work to attend events when expecting drops. We see roughly the same ~10 or so sellers on this board all the time.

2. In addition, there are a few collectors that hardly buys from the boards because they have their own contractual suppliers.

3. There could be more items than the intended drop count but just can't prove how much more and quantity doesn't affect the pricing as it use to be.

What I do see nowadays is:

Low desirability - <50 mil For example, those items with the dates and shard tags on them like the egg sac from Origin or that useless grey shield from Legend

Medium desirability - ~75 - 200 mil.

High desirability - >200 mil. For example, the recent purple mushroom that dropped on Asian shard, it was a 20 drop by design but according to this new method that shard gets even more attendance than Atlantic so it should have been >50 in existence and yet people are still trying to get 750- 1 plat for them.

So what am I trying to say? I don't know really LOL. I'll still collect but please STOP CREATING ITMES WITH DATES OR SHARD NAMES ON THEM. Take a page from the GL or Napa EMs. They know what they are doing. In fact, I think all EMs should be trained by them on proper item submissions before allowing to run their own events.

While we're on this subject and I haven't ranted in a while, explain this to me:

Europa has 5 players about the size of Baja and yet they are allowed to have 2 drops per month. So does that mean they get special treatment or other shard EMs are lazy? Also, many of their events are in Fel which comprises less than 10% of players on each shard so does that mean this EM caters to the minority and not the majority? Am I the only one seeing this?

 

[Smoot]

was there a reason why Mesanna went to this system of item drops in the first place? And also how would you know if a crowded shard is really double than the intended drop count? It could be fewer collectors but more sellers so the appearance seemed a lot more.

I mean let's face it:

1. My educated guess is >70% of all drops are gotten by professional event goers/sellers. I said that loosely since they put in the work to attend events when expecting drops. We see roughly the same ~10 or so sellers on this board all the time.

2. In addition, there are a few collectors that hardly buys from the boards because they have their own contractual suppliers.

3. There could be more items than the intended drop count but just can't prove how much more and quantity doesn't affect the pricing as it use to be.

like i said, yeah trying to figure out true numbers is extremely complicated. as for why? who knows. maybe when lineman complained mesanna just decided to make events more casual. which they are in that its way easier to get a drop just from loot rights, plus the random points system guarantees a drop. and the reason some are playing 4 to 10 characters. which i also dont agree with but thats what we have.

And it was also when people said "homesharders" should have an advantage. which they do under the points system, assuming you consider a character that remains on the shard a "homeshard player"

mesanna said somewhere at a meet and greet that this "random points" played out to where you get 4 looting rights, your guaranteed a drop. but if you get a drop (from either the base number, or rng scales the points to a drop before that 4, your points are reset. these points are also reset if you transfer but hardly anyone does this anyway)

so you have the base drop. then you have points based on looting rights. shards with 2 (or more) bosses like GL or ATLC provide more "looting rights points"

All of this is very rough numbers. most basic calculation i use is number of people there, divided by 4 plus the base number, factor in if there were multiple bosses, then usually subtract a few. then adjust for if the boss was messed up or something (like when half the people at an event miss looting rights)

so theres that very rough calculation. plus going off how many people out of the about 20 characters that i know for a fact every event got the drop, compared to the total number at the event. this also contributes to figuring out what the true numbers might look at.

You can also get a good idea of true numbers anytime a drop is broken and theres a line for them to be "fixed" by mesanna.

So the larger shards are further from that base number, because drop number is directly related to number of people there.
Atlantic, Great Lakes, and a few of the other larger shards sure arent 20 drops.

As for price, yes the higher numbers are why we've seen lower prices. it basically comes down to how many come up for sale, and desireability.

If it were up to me, i think the best way to handle the points system would be to make every drop a (1) drop and let randoms points naturally increase that number for how many characters were at the event.

Its no secret to those who talk to me that im not a fan of this system, but i have spent the last 6 months monitoring it and getting an idea of true drop numbers. I really have been putting off bringing up the numbers in public discussion at all because its such a mess, and so hard to get an idea of unless you have alot of information to go on, like whos gotten how many, player count at events, keep track of last everyone drop / problems with boss etc.

So im posting this for everyone. I agree, its a mess to deal with.

 

[Lord Nabin]

Great conversation

Well done all

 

[Clops]

mesanna said somewhere at a meet and greet that this "random points" played out to where you get 4 looting rights, your guaranteed a drop. but if you get a drop (from either the base number, or rng scales the points to a drop before that 4, your points are reset. these points are also reset if you transfer but hardly anyone does this anyway)

I'd guess that the true drop is 20-30% above the stated base drop. For example, " A Fine Ebony End - Table Hewn From The Ashen Grove Old Growth In The Forest Of Wind" has a base drop of 25. I personally own 27, and know of at least 12 more. so, just assume there will be several extras.

 

[Smoot]

I'd guess that the true drop is 20-30% above the stated base drop. For example, " A Fine Ebony End - Table Hewn From The Ashen Grove Old Growth In The Forest Of Wind" has a base drop of 25. I personally own 27, and know of at least 12 more. so, just assume there will be several extras.

well, that event was abosolutely rediculous. there were 7 bosses. i got 5 tables just by myself. id say there could be 80ish of them.

it really comes down to so many factors. Take Mizuho today. 20 drop. if this was an atlantic style event with 200 characters and 2 bosses, there would be at least 50 of the item. but the way the event worked, im pretty sure there are actually even less than the 20 because the boss was totally random and the same name as all the other mobs. i dont think 20 characters even attacked the right one (the EM did this to not allow multiboxers sitting off to the side to get a drop spoon fed to them)

those are 2 extreme cases, but just an example as to how the way the event plays out, plus very general calculations based on the points system is the only way to attempt to determine even approximate numbers.

 

[Manticore]

i think the counts I list is just a guide. People are smart enough to figure out if it's Atlantic there are a minimum of 25 and up. So perhaps the # could be considered as the minimum. Also, I am actually happy to see all these sellers out there as they sort of serve as the QA/QC department. For example, an item is hot when it first comes out then over time it will drop as much as 30-50% when it stabilizes but you'll never see a 90% drop. So what it comes down to is if you have the patients to wait until it settles or you are the type that has to have it immediately. Take that worm looking thing from LS,

at first people are asking 250-300
it quickly went down to 150-250
now it's at 100-125

Will it ever sell for 50 or below, I highly doubt it.