I believe that at base skill, Spellweaving is 12.5% chance of casting, and you hit 100% 35 or 37.5 skill points later (not sure which)....
But I'm going by half-remembered stuff.
I DO know, though, that a 0 skill elf can cast the 0 skill to cast spell at about that chance (and humans with JOAT are MUCH better at getting the spells off), so that's probably clost to accurate.