I did some testing of Archery hit chance

[Revenant2]

About 2 months ago I got some stuff together on test center (2 accounts 2 computers etc) and tested archery hit chance while max HCI and DCI (no parry) were utilized. The tests used a reasonable sized sample of shots, some hundreds of arrows.

I found that with the shooter having 120 archery and 45 hci, and the target having 120 weapon skill with correct weapon equipped and 45 dci, archery hit chance matched what the formulas said it should be (which is in this case, 50% hit chance).

I also saw what makes the observation of this whole thing deceptive in the field. The testing demonstrated strings of consecutive misses - - it can shamelessly do, like, 8 misses in a row, or maybe more. Archery tends to swing slow, and 8 misses in a row is a REALLY long time for anyone to go without being able to hit something. At times the archery hit chance looked really terrible, and it was only the total sum of all the shots that showed that the actual numbers worked out to 50/50.

After seeing the long strings of misses that would occur during testing (plus seeing it in the field), I feel like a different hit chance utilization that took into account that tons of consecutive misses in a row isn't 'right' would be better. It would still need to maintain a controlled hit chance ratio based upon defense chance and hit chance, etc, but the thing should turn out more like hit - miss - hit - miss - hit - miss instead of miss miss miss hit hit hit.

I'm guessing they aren't up for playing with the hit chance mechanism atm. In any case, I wanted to post what I'd seen and my sense on all the consecutive misses that can happen.

And btw... it seems clear that Archers are simply not intended by UO dev people to be able to kill parry dexers. The behavior of DCI plus added in parry on ONE side only (archers cannot parry) is indicative of this. It's as though there's a bit of paper-rock-scissors going on, and archers are the rock and parry dexers are paper.

(Those parry dexers out there who seem to think they are so leet cause they can kill archers can quit patting themselves on the back for their own ingenuity now - - it's apparently part of the game design).

 

[Thrand Graywolf]

The testing demonstrated strings of consecutive misses - - it can shamelessly do, like, 8 misses in a row, or maybe more.

Been saying the same thing for quite literally years.

It's not archery, it's not the formulas...it's their random number generator.

It's the worst I've ever seen. Maybe it's just a middle square method, it sure feels like one.

They can run all the tests they want and say it works out right over the course of 10,000 swings...that doesn't matter. What matters to the players is what happens over the next thirty seconds, and in that case, it's seriously broken.

Archery does tend to get noticeable streaks the most because of the generally slow swing speeds, but it happens to every skill all the time, not just combat. It can also have strings of successes that you probably shouldn't be having...but no one will complain about those.

With everything in UO being so dependent on percentages these days, it really shows up the problems with the RNG. It's the streakiest RNG on the planet.

The way RNGs work is they start with a seed number and then generate a series of numbers. The series is supposed to be more or less random...although if you start with the same seed, you always get the same series of numbers. Because of that, reseeding is important to try and make things more random. The seeds can come from anywhere...usually a combination of things like current date and time.

In UO it seems that at least part of the seed information is your position in the game world. That probably played a factor in the 8x8 method of skill gain.

After dealing with the insane streakiness of the RNG for years I'm used to just moving to break the streaks. If I stand still I can pretty much predict when I'm in a bad streak and when the streak will generally end (bad for a supposed random number generator)...but all I have to do is move away from that bad spot, which seems to reseed the sequence and breaks the bad streak.

Another reason why archery can seem worse than other combat skills is because archers can stand still and fire at a moving target...meaning the streak stays bad for them...while a warrior will have to chase the target and constantly reseed the RNG, avoiding the worst of the streaks.

So until they wake up and admit the RNG is not so random...right...avoid being stationary. It's about the best you can do.

 

[ColterDC]

You should go join a certain cheating guild on Pac.

Their archers never miss. I don't know what kind of a cheat it is, but even at 120 weapon skill, max DCI and parry they hit me every single time, even when using moving shot which is suppose to have a negative hit chance.

Hard to balance a game when so many people are cheating.

 

[Violence]

Constantly moving so they reset their RNG.. Is this actually real or Sci-Fi? LOL..

An archer standing still is a newbie archer so there.

Oh and.. ? Have you PERHAPS been against a Disarm Archer or one of those who exploit to get over-cap damage? Or to do Moving Shot and swap specials mid-flight?

Just asking.. LOL..
Against such cases NOT HAVING PARRY IS SUICIDE.
So get yourself a Disarm weapon and some fighting skill and well, sacrifice a skill to be able to Disarm someone and hunt them down like dogs.

If they hide just use Conflag potions. Sheesh I swear UO needs a PvP Handbook.

I'll believe Parry is balanced when 2Handed weapons suddenly get "Balanced" property or something similar to Velocity and when you will be able to Dual Wield 1Handed weps.
It's a wonder the idiots responsible for PvP changes didn't make bows parry-capable.

 

[Revenant2]

You should go join a certain cheating guild on Pac.

Their archers never miss. I don't know what kind of a cheat it is, but even at 120 weapon skill, max DCI and parry they hit me every single time, even when using moving shot which is suppose to have a negative hit chance.

Hard to balance a game when so many people are cheating.

I didn't mention this in my original post but...

I actually tested for one bug that was supposed to be being used this way. It involved Divine Fury. In the time I spent I didn't seem able to make it work, but I also didn't spend a real, real long time on it. There were some configurations with it which remained to be tried, I guess. Maybe I should give it a shot again (for the purpose of a bug report of course), that or make a stealther on Pac and watch closely to get some ideas.

..... although then again maybe it's kinda a waste of time to do so :/. Like 6 months ago, I submitted exact instructions on how to do a different, really nasty Archery bug, and as of the last time I checked that one still worked. I'll check it again later today and update the thread if it's been fixed in the latest patch.

With moving shot, from what I've been told and seen, it's not quite as simple as the HCI cap simply being dropped down. In the field I get reasonable results out of my archer's moving shot without any cheat despite the HCI penalty associated with the special. The situation seems to be helped by the archer's HCI setup, and it takes significant consideration in the gear and weapon choice to be able to deal with it. But then again, I could be totally wrong on this because I have not done in-depth hit chance testing with it on test shard, it's just subjective here.

However, if there's such an HCI bug as you describe, i'd expect it to affect all types of shots, including moving shot.

BTW - - - parry doesn't take the shooter's HCI into consideration, if I understand the workings of the thing right. I *think* that the DCI is what works first, and in the event that fails, the chance to parry comes into play. I think that the chance to parry is based exclusively on the parry skill plus the fact that a shot is succesfully bumping up against the target, I don't believe that there's double jeopardy for the shot either hitting or being parried away based upon hit chance at that stage.

Even in the presence of an HCI bug that's unreasonably overpowering your DCI, I would hope that every once in a while you'd see and hear that *plink* that signifies the shot being deflected by parry. If not - seriously not - that's one heck of a nasty bug that's beyond even HCI.

 

[Revenant2]

Constantly moving so they reset their RNG.. Is this actually real or Sci-Fi? LOL..

An archer standing still is a newbie archer so there.

I stand still if I think the target will remain in range for multiple shots. It's the way to get my damage and my specials (other than Moving Shot) out as quickly as possible. The stick-time on archery is a sickening .75 of a second, you blow a ton of firing time if you move unnecessarily.

An archer who won't stand still at smart times is more the newbie "so there".

Oh and.. ? Have you PERHAPS been against a Disarm Archer

Template choice

or one of those who exploit to get over-cap damage?

Hmmm I had been told they fixed that one.

Or to do Moving Shot and swap specials mid-flight?

This is an open exploit that's been reported, and maybe a fix is coming to a theater near you soon!

Just asking.. LOL..
Against such cases NOT HAVING PARRY IS SUICIDE.
So get yourself a Disarm weapon and some fighting skill and well, sacrifice a skill to be able to Disarm someone and hunt them down like dogs.

If they hide just use Conflag potions. Sheesh I swear UO needs a PvP Handbook.

I'll believe Parry is balanced when 2Handed weapons suddenly get "Balanced" property or something similar to Velocity and when you will be able to Dual Wield 1Handed weps.
It's a wonder the idiots responsible for PvP changes didn't make bows parry-capable.

good grief do people really think these things through before they post.

Although I agree that wrestle-archer would be neat, you'd keep your DCI even while disarmed yourself, plus you can disarm others. It's hard to justify in the big picture, but it's neat.

 

[galefan2004]

Biggest issue I see is that you are using this data to say who should be able to kill each other ONE VS ONE. The problem there is that in PvP this is a GROUP game. If you are solo PvPing maybe you would have more issues with taking a certain class, but you shouldn't be pvping solo. However, mages still have the most synergy in group pvp.

 

[Violence]

"I stand still if I think the target will remain in range for multiple shots."

Real bad tactic. Stand still ONLY when your character is going to shoot.

"Hmmm I had been told they fixed that one."

You have been told wrong. I get hit for 50s often, not talking about added damages. Just pure 50s and 70s floating above my char. 69 Physical, opponent's bow being all Physical Damage. It's NOT Velocity bonus.

"This is an open exploit that's been reported, and maybe a fix is coming to a theater near you soon!"

That "Maybe" saved you from a tirade about how they are unable to screw a light bulb, let alone fix an exploit. But yeah keep being positive. In the meanwhile things are as I said and everyone's on their gimp Disarm Archer.

"Although I agree that wrestle-archer would be neat, you'd keep your DCI even while disarmed yourself, plus you can disarm others. It's hard to justify in the big picture, but it's neat."

Hint : It's not Wrestling, it's a weapon skill so they can Disarm you AND HLD/HLA/Spell Effect you plus the weapon's secondary special. Hence they almost always come with War Forks.
Can you now justify the big picture? If not go PvP more, nothing to say really.

"Good grief do people really think these things through before they post."

Do you, is my question...

Happy hunts, I'm off.

 

[Vexxed]

A reply to ColterDC...


Perhaps if you actually understood the game mechanics Colter you would know that given a long enough period of time the unlikely is bound to happen. What that means for you is that if you CANNOT kill an ARHCER then eventually he will land the consecutive hits in a row needed to kill you.... & as pointed out in this thread the random # generator isn't all that random in small samples so getting missed 8 times in a row happens just as often as getting hit 8 times in a row. The problem for you is that the later gets you killed. Or better yet 2 times in a row if they are Concussion blows.... On a side note leave your accusations of cheating elsewhere unless of course your own guild is faultless... and being one of largest in the game I find that highly unlikely.....

PS... The best Defense is a good offense.... Staying alive is all good, but killing the other person is better... parry bush etc.. hint hint..

 

[ColterDC]

Perhaps if you actually understood the game mechanics Colter you would know that given a long enough period of time the unlikely is bound to happen.

I understand the game mechanics just fine tyvm. What I don't understand is how day after day, month after month certain people are able to hit me 100% of the time. And it's not just getting lucky with 2-3 shots hitting me in a row. I'm talking about 20+ shots in a row, not a single miss.

On a side note leave your accusations of cheating elsewhere unless of course your own guild is faultless... and being one of largest in the game I find that highly unlikely.....

I don't speak for my guild, only myself. And since I don't use any 3rd party programs when I play, I can say whatever I want.

 

[Crystilastamous]

About 2 months ago I got some stuff together on test center (2 accounts 2 computers etc) and tested archery hit chance while max HCI and DCI (no parry) were utilized. The tests used a reasonable sized sample of shots, some hundreds of arrows.

I found that with the shooter having 120 archery and 45 hci, and the target having 120 weapon skill with correct weapon equipped and 45 dci, archery hit chance matched what the formulas said it should be (which is in this case, 50% hit chance).

I also saw what makes the observation of this whole thing deceptive in the field. The testing demonstrated strings of consecutive misses - - it can shamelessly do, like, 8 misses in a row, or maybe more. Archery tends to swing slow, and 8 misses in a row is a REALLY long time for anyone to go without being able to hit something. At times the archery hit chance looked really terrible, and it was only the total sum of all the shots that showed that the actual numbers worked out to 50/50.

After seeing the long strings of misses that would occur during testing (plus seeing it in the field), I feel like a different hit chance utilization that took into account that tons of consecutive misses in a row isn't 'right' would be better. It would still need to maintain a controlled hit chance ratio based upon defense chance and hit chance, etc, but the thing should turn out more like hit - miss - hit - miss - hit - miss instead of miss miss miss hit hit hit.

I'm guessing they aren't up for playing with the hit chance mechanism atm. In any case, I wanted to post what I'd seen and my sense on all the consecutive misses that can happen.

And btw... it seems clear that Archers are simply not intended by UO dev people to be able to kill parry dexers. The behavior of DCI plus added in parry on ONE side only (archers cannot parry) is indicative of this. It's as though there's a bit of paper-rock-scissors going on, and archers are the rock and parry dexers are paper.

(Those parry dexers out there who seem to think they are so leet cause they can kill archers can quit patting themselves on the back for their own ingenuity now - - it's apparently part of the game design).

When pvping on an archer... Obviously you're not talking PvM here, since monsters are quite easy to hit.

So, when pvping on an archer, you may get strings of misses, but you ALSO get strings of 8 hits in a row. I've noticed myself Triple AI on a mage with 12O parry and 5O dci, and killing him as a result.

Just have to play the game and let the RNG go in your favor eventually, sometimes it doesn't. If the RNG always went in your favor the archer would be even more over powered than it already is. Don't like swinging slow? Get a faster bow, or get fencing.

 

[Vexxed]

And it's not just getting lucky with 2-3 shots hitting me in a row. I'm talking about 20+ shots in a row, not a single miss.

1) 20+ in a row ??? Though exceedingly unlikely...

"given a long enough period of time the unlikely is bound to happen".....

I think your over exaggerating and that's fine, but in either caes 20+ in a row IS possible.... you know why I think your stretching it a bit? If someone hit you 20 times in a row I really doubt you'd live past the first 10 at the max and that's IF your worth a darn.....

Anyway... I think the jist of your problem is you don't understarnd how an archer is killing you if you have the Maximum about of protection possible..

parry / bush / ep / max+ DCI etc... and the reason is... All that isn't supposed to GUARANTEE anything just make it much less likely.

Anyway.. I'm done.

 

[ColterDC]

That right because no one cheats in pvp.... so it's not possible that someone found a hole in the system that allows them to hit you every time, just like it's not possible that someone is able to do moving shot on bows that do not have that special rolleyes:

I understand how a RNG works and I could accept on occasion someone hitting me several times in a row, but please it's the same dudes doing this for the last few months and they will hit you every single time no matter how much DCI and parry you have.

 

[Revenant2]

"I stand still if I think the target will remain in range for multiple shots."

Real bad tactic. Stand still ONLY when your character is going to shoot.

Lord no. Every time you move even a tiny step, you add .75 of a second to your swing time. Archery is slow enough without that too uh?

"Hmmm I had been told they fixed that one."

You have been told wrong. I get hit for 50s often, not talking about added damages. Just pure 50s and 70s floating above my char. 69 Physical, opponent's bow being all Physical Damage. It's NOT Velocity bonus.

You're describing something different than what I heard was fixed. Although I do think people can confuse velocity sometimes for base damage. I'd have to see that happening and be watching the fight to really feel sure there was an exploit out there like that. People can do consecrate weapon, buncha things, to really help with damage.

"Although I agree that wrestle-archer would be neat, you'd keep your DCI even while disarmed yourself, plus you can disarm others. It's hard to justify in the big picture, but it's neat."

Hint : It's not Wrestling, it's a weapon skill so they can Disarm you AND HLD/HLA/Spell Effect you plus the weapon's secondary special. Hence they almost always come with War Forks.
Can you now justify the big picture? If not go PvP more, nothing to say really.

*I* meant *wrestle archer* eh. I've seen an archer running a secondary weapon skill and I didn't like it. Hint back at you: If you are disarmed by someone, and you have wrestling, the DCI in your gear is still working for you and it remains hard for a dexer to hit you. Otherwise, you are as easy to hit as a newbie char until you get that weapon back into your hands. Thats why the possibility of wrestling seemed interesting (as opposed with like fencing)

"Good grief do people really think these things through before they post."

Do you, is my question...

You said that archers should be able to parry. If they could, a nearly invulnerable archer template would exist (no point in discussing it because it does NOT exist now). Sure it would be fun to be the archer but..... yeah. It would be messed up.

 

[Revenant2]

1) 20+ in a row ??? Though exceedingly unlikely...

"given a long enough period of time the unlikely is bound to happen".....

I think your over exaggerating and that's fine, but in either caes 20+ in a row IS possible.... you know why I think your stretching it a bit? If someone hit you 20 times in a row I really doubt you'd live past the first 10 at the max and that's IF your worth a darn.....

Anyway... I think the jist of your problem is you don't understarnd how an archer is killing you if you have the Maximum about of protection possible..

parry / bush / ep / max+ DCI etc... and the reason is... All that isn't supposed to GUARANTEE anything just make it much less likely.

Anyway.. I'm done.

There very well could be an exploit, it's kinda not fair to tell him he's full of it when there could be something going on.

I know of an exploit right now where a person was able to just magically heal themselves. I saw it demonstrated for me and was shown how to do it. You get free hit points out of seemingly nowhere. I think (hope) it's fixed now, but, who would have believed that someone can just heal and heal through everything, have their HP magically fixed out of nowhere? The people who were using this exploit were like unkillable pools of neverending health, they would come out after you and no matter how many people were on them, health would just feed into them from elsewhere.

It's too big a pain in the ass to set up for me to test to see if it's really been fixed, but I heard they had gotten it.

Unbelieveable does not = impossible when it comes to software bugs, is all im sayin.

 

[Vexxed]

Unbelieveable does not = impossible when it comes to software bugs, is all im sayin.

That might be true but I do my research and I've heard or seen NOTHING even close to what Colter is referring to..... (on a side note the "Magical Healing" that you mentioned was indeed fixed. Line of sight checks ftw!) So...


"All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best."

and the simplest solution is that he's overstating what happened and is annoyed that the random generator has rolled that 5% chance to outright kill him vs. the archer a couple of times...

 

[Masumatek]

Lord no. Every time you move even a tiny step, you add .75 of a second to your swing time. Archery is slow enough without that too uh?

Wait what? It's been awhile since I seriously PvPed as an archer but that's not how I remember it. I guess it depends what weapon you are using and how fast you are shooting it with how much you're going to want to move/stand still...but technically you don't add to your swing time by moving. After moving, you have to stop for the delay and remain still before you can shoot again. There's also a delay before you can shoot again based on your ssi, stamina, and weapon. The stop delay is different from this delay. Let's say the delay with your weapon, stamina, and ssi before you shoot again is 2 seconds. If the stop delay is .75 seconds (this is correct right? I haven't been keeping track of all the changes), you can shoot, move for 1.25 seconds, and then stand still for .75 seconds, and by the time the stop delay ends so will your normal swing delay, so you're firing when both delays end. It's hard to master but it keeps you moving which is essential to an archer. The archer dance it's called, no? And once you get the hang of it, the stop delay shouldn't be adding much time to our normal delay as you'll have learned when to stop.

Am I wrong? I don't think I am though...


*edit*
And yah, you don't have to be moving. In some situations there's no reason too. But chances are there will be and you should move. You wouldn't want to let meleers or disarm/harm spamming mages get close to you...

 

[Violence]

"Although I do think people can confuse velocity sometimes for base damage. I'd have to see that happening and be watching the fight to really feel sure there was an exploit out there like that. People can do consecrate weapon, buncha things, to really help with damage."

- It wasn't Velocity. It was not Consecrate. My suit has pretty high resists. As for the rest it's okay I don't feel sad about you not believing me.

"Hint back at you: If you are disarmed by someone, and you have wrestling, the DCI in your gear is still working for you and it remains hard for a dexer to hit you. Otherwise, you are as easy to hit as a newbie char until you get that weapon back into your hands. Thats why the possibility of wrestling seemed interesting (as opposed with like fencing)"

- Fencing would work better. Because of the item properties as said. And if you get Disarm before you Disarm, guess what? RUN until you can re-arm and Disarm them first, then use bow. But feel free to waste your points on Wrestling.

"You said that archers should be able to parry."

- There you go, a simple missunderstanding. What I said was, it's a wonder the people behind PvP changes haven't added the ability to parry with bows, them being really incompetent and probably not even PvPing. I didn't say bows should parry.

"You wouldn't want to let meleers or spamming mages get close to you..."

- Totally right and as far as PVP goes guess what, those people really desperately wanna come close. So no standing still, and no it does not add to your delay. In fact Disarm or not, you don't want ANYBODY hostile close to you in general if you're not melee.

PS. Regarding the argument for over-cap damage- I believe that everything added, you really cannot exceed the cap except for Deathstrike which is based on quite a few skills to even hit 40 and certainly not with a bow. This is totally a different issue from what I discussed though, I am very sure of what I saw and I did examine the other guy's bow. I run a Chiv/Archer on my account(gotta get 4/6 BTW) and know what you're saying with Divine Fury etc. but 50s per shot pure was an exploit. I am certain of that.

Tell you what, if you can replicate this damage output in Test Center please post how so I can go there and see my mistake.
50s per shot, pure damage, no Velocity, no added Spell Effect, your target being over 63 in all resists. I doubt you can do it.