Cold War Part 2

[Hunters' Moon]

Maybe even just a continuation of part one. What gets me is that Obama didn't call Putin/Medvedev on it during their meeting.

The Bear at the Door | Washington Free Beacon​

Nothing like a little "flexability",right? Maybe in this sense,flexability means cowering?

[youtube]XsFR8DbSRQE[/youtube]​

 

[Taylor]

I'd be more worried if Russia had an economy, hehe.

 

[Mirt]

I'd be more worried if Russia had an economy, hehe.

Still a bit of an issue. Its disturbing to see how much they are investing in arms at this point. That being said Russia is no longer a viable military threat to the US unless it launched all its missles. At that point its all done for us all anyway so why worry.

 

[Taylor]

Speaking of missiles, our missile shield works.

U.S. zaps target in high-stakes missile shield test| Reuters

But I'm still dubious that the U.S., Russia, or China will ever enter armed conflict. None of them are trying to expand, the way that the former Soviet Union tried to. Moreover, especially in the case of China, our economies are just too closely intertwined. At most, if any conflict happens, we'll work through proxies--e.g., Russia supporting Syria and the U.S. backing Syrian rebels. That seems more likely.

 

[Mirt]

Syrus I disagree with you there the PLA is pretty much on their own and they are very agreesive and expansionist. While I agree it would be devestating to their economies and would probably not thrill their political leaders they have been preping for some time. Additionally your well aware of the launching of the first PLAN Aircraft carrier. Thats a lot of money to spend on something that is really only for power projection if your just doing it for the prestige. The proxie wars are nothing new and have never really stoped at all. They are still going strong in africa most folks just couldn't care less.

 

[Taylor]

Traditionally, China's president holds three positions: President of China, Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Long as that tradition continues, the PLA will continue to be directed by the CCP.

Economics is more important to China than anything at this point. The single greatest threat to PRC stability is the discontent of the middle class. The CCP has essentially made a deal with the populace since Deng's reforms: go along with the CCP and we'll let you become wealthy. If the CCP stops delivering on this (and the current downturn is threatening to end it), the party is going to crumble. A Chinese historian, Dr. David Aikman, said it this way: "I think China's leaders wake up every day and ask themselves, 'How are we going to hold this together for one more day?'" Dr. Ariel Roth described the situation like a treadmill: every day, China's leaders are running full tilt on a treadmill, worrying what might happen if they fall off.

Anything that threatens them economically also threatens their hold on the country.

 

[Mirt]

I would agree with that but that being said the Chinese Generals have a ton of independent power. They also have their own purse powers which are unique. I think your using a rational actor theory model that might not match up well. There was a great White Paper out earlier in the year or the end of last year from DOD on this I will see if I can't find it to PM it to you but it was very interesting adn showed some of the fissures that have been observed. I would say that while China will lose control if they cannot manage their economy they are also about to have far more men then women and traditionally when things like that happen you get a more militaristic society.