I do not trust those numbers. They seem to be too high (based on my observations). Typically, the "Discussion" tab on a wiki page is used to capture the process, source, and/or raw data to support conclusions, such as the ones cited above. In this case, there is no supporting information.
Though I have no data to support my observations, I am certain the odds are better. I am unaware of any thorough data collection to determine runic odds.
After the ML release, there was speculation/hinting that the runic odds improved with the difficulty of the crafting quests (ammunition being the least difficult; repeating crossbows being the most difficult). I am not aware of any undertaking to prove/disprove this speculation (which would also give estimates for runic odds).
Personally I use the Ingenious Archery 1, simply because crossbows are easier to click on. The "make quest item" button on the crafting menu was added much later than ML release.